Luis Castillo Sleeper Post and 2018 Outlook:

Tags: Luis Castillo Mass Appeal

  • Luis is probably my favorite young SP sleeper who by the time late March rolls around, may not be a sleeper anymore due to the potentially massive hype. If you are one of the lucky few reading this, then you have the advantage Bro!
  • Castillo is 24 already and came up straight from AA in 2017 and by Mid-August already had Mass Appeal. I love the fact that he complied nearly 170 innings between AA and the majors which means he shouldn’t be limited in 2018.
  • I’ve heard him compared to Severino. WOW!  Well, maybe 2015 Severino and we all know how 2016 went…not good; but the kid averages nearly 98 MPH on his fastball!! How’s his stuff?  Well, his K rate and Ground Ball % went up and his HR % went down when he came to the majors.  Weird right?  Well not really.  He developed a pretty damn good sinker and has a great change that is 10 mph slower than that fastball; mix in an above average slider as well.  The sinker, change, and sliders all induce ground balls at over 60% and he throws those 49.4% of the time.  The only minor issues are the fastball and that he plays his home games in the GAB (that’s Great American Ballpark) so home runs could be a problem.   Now, the BB rate was a little high but he’s shown great command in the minors and I expect that improve to just below 3.00 BB/9.  If you want a more detailed read on Castillo, check out this fangraphs community research piece by Lance Brozdowski.  Great read, and the fact that Castillo was actually better at the end of the season really gets me going!  In that piece, Red Manager Bryan Price has already committed to Castillo for a rotation spot, so it’s looking like a full season for the kid!
  • Let’s get down to the projections: Since Wins are difficult to project (Reds aren’t good so he could end up anywhere from 9 to 15), I’ll give you IP, ERA, WHIP, Ks for 2018:
  • 185 IP, 3.59, 1.14, 194 Ks
  • The ERA jump is mostly a regression based on the low BABIP (which I still think he keeps well under .300) and a slightly lower LOB % He’s had an ADP of around 160 in Way Too Early Mock Drafts. That’s around the 40th  I’d take him inside the top 30 SP, around 25 and about 110 overall.