Top Starting Pitchers – Last 30 Days

Below is a table of the top starting pitchers in terms of fantasy for the last 30 days. I’ll highlight a few of them below to see if we can expect success or regression moving forward. (The columns can be sorted).

Zack WheelerMets4261.950.90
Max ScherzerNationals4392.120.91
Carlos CarrascoIndians4431.931.10
Jameson TaillonPirates4262.381.21
Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks3351.260.70
Tanner RoarkNationals3252.000.93
Vince VelasquezPhillies3241.841.02
Jake ArrietaPhillies3222.011.05
Patrick CorbinDiamondbacks3433.441.12
Rich HillDodgers3352.231.18
Trevor BauerIndians3501.881.23
Jon GrayRockies2251.520.71
Dereck RodriguezGiants2271.230.72
Carlos RodonWhite Sox2251.260.84
Sean NewcombBraves2212.050.91
David PriceRed Sox2232.001.00
Justin VerlanderAstros2502.351.01
Masahiro TanakaYankees2361.781.02
Zack GodleyDiamondbacks2362.901.03
Jack FlahertyCardinals2362.731.06
Clayton KershawDodgers2292.511.11
Lance Lynn- - -2292.601.16
Jacob deGromMets1411.700.89
Trevor RichardsMarlins1321.530.92
Gerrit ColeAstros1333.041.10
Charlie MortonAstros1262.701.24
Derek HollandGiants0302.130.83

Let’s talk Tanaka. This is what he looks like when he’s not serving up dingers, only 0.89 HR/9 in the last 30 days. Tanaka is rocking a 24.2% K-BB% and a .288 BABIP. For his career Tanaka has a .276 BABIP, so I don’t see much regression at all unless the home run issues come back. I’m fully on board here, his ground ball rate is up and he has three pitches working for him the last month.

I’m also loving Patrick Corbin! Despite another great start from PC, he’s been unlucky with a .351 BABIP and a low 65.9% strand rate. He’s at an elite K-BB% just ahead of Tanaka at 24.5% and leads the league in the last month with a 1.38 FIP! I don’t care that he only throws 90 mph, his slider is devastating. In the last 30 days, Corbin has a 55% ground ball rate, a 39.5% O-swing, and a 16.1% SwStr rate! I’m buying him as a top 10 SP.

A few others I think can maintain a high level of performance this year include Carlos Carrasco (29.5% K-BB% last 30 & 16.8% SwStr), Justin Verlander (38% K-BB%! .337 BABIP to regress), Gerrit Cole (.328 BABIP, 70.4% Strand rate), and Jacob deGrom (29% soft contact, 38.3% O-Swing). Yes, I know they are all aces, but this is what makes them aces. If you want to acquire them, act now and be ready to pay for them.

Sean Newcomb highlights (lowlights) the list of pitchers I think will regress. His K-BB% is 11% in the last 30 days. He’s managed to get by with just a .167 BABIP and an over 90% strand rate. Combine that with a sub 8% swinging strike rate and a low chase rate means he’s in for some major regression. With all the contact he’s giving up, plus the BABIP and strand rate which will normalize will leave you tied to the WHIPping-Post.

Carlos Rodon is about to come crashing down. He’s keeping the ball in yeard with a 0.31 HR/9, but that simply won’t last. His 13.0% K-BB% tells me that his WHIP is coming way up. Combine that with a .181 BABIP and an 85.4% strand rate. Similar to Newcomb, there are a few blowups coming with Rodon in the home stretch.

Some other regression candidates include Jon Gray (16.7% K-BB%, .162 BABIP), Jack Flaherty (11.3% BB rate, .235 BABIP, 90.6% strand rate), Dereck Rodriguez (.181 BABIP, 88% strand rate, 7.4% SwStr rate),  and Trevor Richards (.232 BABIP, 91.3% strand rate).