Last Year’s Power Overperformers Based on HR/BRL (Fantasy Baseball)

Early in the offseason, I covered so hitters who greatly underperformed their homer uns per barrel rate (HR/BRL%). It’s a simple metric that includes barrels which is the best indicator of power we have. There are many factors that can sway this rate such as the home ballpark, weather, and the horizontal launch angle (essentially, what part of the park was the ball hit). I’ll cover some hitters that overperformed based on this metric in 2018 and their outlooks for this upcoming season. If you want to see my underperformers, click here. Keep in mind since the ball was de-juiced last season, the MLB average HR/BRL was 66.1%. There are a number of factors including home park, weather, and part of the park the barreled ball was hit to that could sway a hitter’s overall HR/BRL one way or the other.

Last Years HR/BRL Overperformers

 HR2018 BRLHR/BRL
Josh Reddick1714121.4%
Ozzie Albies242596.9%
Tim Anderson2020100.6%
Miguel Andujar273089.3%
Charlie Blackmon293290.1%
Scooter Gennett232784.9%
Jed Lowrie232592.1%
Johan Camargo1918105.8%
Jurickson Profar202290.9%
Jose Peraza141498.2%
Jonathan Schoop2118115.7%
Odubel Herrera2221104.4%

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL)

I was a huge fan of Albies coming into 2018 and I saw significant upside due to his great contact rates, speed, and developing power. He was a steal going around pick 150 last year but the helium has caught Albies ADP this year now going around 62 overall. He smashed 24 homers as a 21-year-old, so naturally, he’s considered a mid-20s hitter with speed. Well, Statcast shows us that Albies is in the bottom 25% for average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls (EV LD/FB) and the bottom 15% in balls hit over 95 MPH. He’s nuzzled right in between known slap hitters Joe Panik and Orlando Arcia. Talk about maximizing his hard contact! From June 1st through the end of the season Albies hit just 10 homers. I believe this is where his power currently sits. Referencing Eno Sarris’ new research on park factors, SunTrust Park is in the bottom six for home runs per high drive%. I love Albies longterm, but he does not have many factors on his side that point towards a repeat of his power output from 2018.

Jonathan Schoop (2B/SS – MIN)

Schoop averaged 28.5 home runs per years between 2016 and 2017. Last year, however, his power metrics were on par with Albies and in fact, his EV LD/FB was actually 1.5 MPH lower than Albies. Schoop has been fortunate to play his home games in Camden Yards in Baltimore which by Sarris’ article, measures as the second best park for HR/HD%. The move in the second half to Milwaukee certainly wasn’t much of a downgrade either. Managing 21 home runs after nearly 29 per season is a disappointment. Will he bounce back? I’m skeptical. In 2017, he managed 32 homers on just 34 barrels. Based on league average numbers, he should have hit more like 26. Last year, he managed just 18 barreled balls but was extremely fortunate to hit those 21 homers. Now in Minnesota and likely hitting in sixth or even seventh, he should see a steep decrease in HR/BRL%. Target Field plays in the bottom third of all parks for power.

Johan Camargo (SS/3B – ATL)

Camargo was a surprising breakout in 2018 but unfortunately for him, the Braves signed Josh Donaldson for a one-year prove it deal. Camargo goes back to a bit of a utility role where he can fill in a 3B, SS, and even the outfield. Donaldson is far from a pillar of success, so Camargo still could have some value in 2019. He hit 19 homers last year on just 359 balls in play with a 15% HR/FB rate. Prior to 2018, he hadn’t posted a double-digit HR/FB at any level where he played more than 33 games. We already know SunTrust isn’t a great park for power, but Camargo was able to reach his 19 homers on just 18 barreled balls. Without a clear path to playing time, I’d stay away from Camargo because he doesn’t have any real speed to fall back on if the power takes a significant hit.

Josh Reddick (OF – HOU)

Reddick may have been the luckiest hitter in terms of HR/BRL% on 2018. He totaled a weak 14 barrels but smacked 17 homers and averaged a sub-90 MPH on average on his line drives and fly balls. Maybe the Crawford boxes stole a few outs which helped his totals. I’m not sure, Minute Maid Park plays near league-average overall but right-handed hitters get an edge. While only slightly above league-average in HR/BRL in 2017, one would think he would regress some with the de-juiced ball. His power metrics are clearly on the decline and he did not earn a jump in his HR?FB rate. I feel like the 32-year-old Reddick is about to come back down to earth ceding playing time to prospect Kyle Tucker.

Tim Anderson (SS – CHW)

Anderson hit 20 homers on 20 barrels in 2018 but plays in a favorable park in Chicago. Typically a player who can hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases is a sought after commodity in the fantasy realm. However, Anderson is going just outside of the top 150 overall. It doesn’t feel like the fantasy community is believing in Anderson’s power either. His poor plate discipline leaves Anderson susceptible to long lulls within the season. His inability to get on base (.281 OBP in 2018) is likely to drop him to eighth or ninth in the lineup. Anderson has back-to-back 606 plate appearance seasons and I seem to think a repeat is unlikely. Anderson’s speed provides some value but the rest of his profile seems a little less appealing.

Jed Lowrie (2B – NYM)

How Lowrie was unlucky in 2017 with the juiced balls but was fortunate in 2018 with the de-juiced balls, I don’t know. It’s not as though Oakland is hitter’s haven but Lowrie had a late-season breakout of sorts. An unlikely career-high home run total of 23 from a 34-year-old seemingly on the decline had people buzzing. The Mets picked him and the oft-injured second basemen will be starting the year on the IL. I suppose we could have seen this coming after Lowrie managed 28 barrels in 2017 but his total dropped to 25 in 2018. Without a juiced ball, it appears Lowrie was a bit fortunate last year. Given his start on the IL, I’d be surprised if he plays every day instead, splitting time with Jeff McNeil. To expect anything more 12-15 homers this year would be a fools’ prediction.

Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI)
Herrera has literally been showing up on all of my pessimistic lists and here he is again. This is a guy who barreled fewer balls in 2018 than he did in 2017 but ended up with a career-high 22 home runs after just 14 in 2017. How does that work when the ball was clearly de-juiced in 2018? Well, that can I say, the man was lucky. The Phillies appear to be hitting him sixth after the opening day game on Thursday. I’d like to give the Phillies a pro-tip and drop him the eighth. I’d rather see Cesar Hernandez and even Maikel Franco hitting ahead of him. The one aspect going Herrera’s way is the home ballpark. Even with calling Citizen’s  Bank Ballpark home, he hadn’t reached double-digit in terms of HR/FB rate until 2018. Some might say he’s improving but his batted ball profile was the worst of his career. His hard contact was career-low and his soft contact and popup rates were career-highs. He looks like more of a 15 homer/6-8 SB type of player.

Miguel Andujar (3B – NYY)
Andujar benefits from playing his home games at Yankee Stadium but not as much as you’d think. He’s a right-handed hitter who has a very high pull rate so he doesn’t benefit from the short porch in right field. He’s also a hitter who puts a high volume of balls in play. He swings often and makes a ton of contact. So, he’ll keep his strikeout rate low along with his walk rate. That’s a risky approach that can result in a lot of weak contact chasing pitches outside the zone. Checking his power metrics tell me that he truly requires a high volume of balls in play to hit for high power. He’s right near the 50th percentile for average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls (EV LD/FB) and only averaged 389 feet on his home runs in 2018. That’s in the bottom 25% last year tied with Johan Camargo and Ian Kinsler. He’s only 24 years old so power growth is certainly a possibility, but I’ll take the under on 27 homers for 2019.

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Projecting Power Spikes Using Spring Stats (GO/AO)

Just before the start of the 2018 regular season, I did similar research looking at hitter’s ground out air out ratios (GO/AO). It spawned from an article Jeff Zimmerman wrote about which spring statistics have the highest correlation to the regular season. Most spring numbers don’t matter, but an increase in the percentage of balls a player is hitting in the air may signify an approach change. With an entire offseason for players to work on a change such as trying to elevate the ball more, could be important when trying to identify potential power spikes or breakouts. Last year, I wrote about Ozzie Albies, Brandon Nimmo, and Steven Duggar. So Albies was a great one and Nimmo wasn’t too bad either; I’ll take the “L” on Duggar. In addition to those three, guys like Jesus Aguilar, Kiké Hernandez, and Christian Villanueva showed up on this list; all ended up with career-highs in home runs. With a limited sample, I’m mostly looking at a minimum of 50 plate appearances and 35 balls in play for these players.

GO/AO Rates - Spring Training 2019

     
PlayerSpring GO/AOCareer GO/AOEst. Reg Season GB%Career GB%
Paul Goldschmidt0.261.1936.4%43.1%
Juan Soto0.711.0141.0%53.7%
Jose Abreu0.791.2642.0%45.6%
Brandon Nimmo0.351.2337.5%44.1%
Manuel Margot0.570.9339.7%42.6%
Kike Hernandez0.410.9038.0%40.4%
Jorge Soler0.73*1.1141.2%43.2%
Max Schrock0.76*1.02*40.5%42.5%
Garrett Hampson0.77*1.1441.8%*47.0%
*Minor League Statistics

Some players that just missed the cut who I am keeping an eye on include Clint Frazier (OF – NYY), Scott Kingery (2B – PHI), Billy McKinney (OF – TOR), Willie Calhoun (OF – TEX), Eric Sogard (2B – TOR), and Chad Pinder (OF – OAK)

Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
There’s not much more we can say about Goldy because he’s still a monster at the plate. His extreme fly ball approach this spring is interesting because he has never had a GO/AO ratio below 1.00 in any season. He’s almost literally hitting everything in the air this spring. Last year was his lowest ground ball rate at 38.6% but is regularly in the mid-40s. If he carries this approach to the regular season, he has a shot at his first 40-homer campaign. He might take a hit in batting average but an upside of .270-40-110 looks pretty nice.

Juan Soto (OF – WAS)
Well, this could be scary. At age-19 Soto had shown power to all fields but carried a low fly ball rate at 28.8% in 2018. This spring, It’s only been 59  plate appearances, but based on Jeff Zimmerman’s table from last year, that pegs Soto between a 43% and 44% ground ball rate. That’s potentially significant because his ground ball rate was all the way up at 53.7% last year. Now, his line drive rate was relatively low at 17.5%, so I’d expect to see that jump up to 20-22% given his profile. That would still leave a nice 5% bump in fly balls for Soto. The question remains, can he maintain a lofty HR/FB rate which was an impressive 24.7% in 2018?

Soto hits the majority of his fly balls to the opposite field. He was able to maintain a 19.6% HR/FB on those fly balls the other way which ranked seventh in all of baseball last year. Here are the names ahead of him: Aaron Judge, Jesus Aguilar, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, and the aforementioned Paul Goldschmidt. I would say, that list depicts power hitters to a “T.” Soto’s 47.8% hard contact on those balls backs up the high home run rate to the opposite field. I was skeptical coming into the season about Soto due to a high HR/FB rate and elevated BABIP ticketed for regression (which I still believe), but I’m coming around on his power. I’m a little disappointed that I missed out on shares of Soto this year but I still think top 30 overall is just too pricey.

Jose Abreu (1B – CHW)
Is Abreu changing his approach? He’s given us a pretty good sample and he’s walked just once this spring and stuck out 12 times putting the ball in play a total of 51 times. He’s never been a patient hitter and it looks like he’s elevating the ball more as well with four homers and nine extra-base hits. Referencing Zimmerman’s data, Abreu would carry an approximate 42% GB rate compared to a career 45.6% GB%. Abreu is a notorious slow starter so it’ll be interesting to see if he can buck that trend this year with more fly balls. I’ll be watching Abreu early this year because he had some rough injuries in the second half last year curbing his production. If he can have a solid April, he could end up back around the top 30 overall with some nice value.

Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM)
Nimmo once again shows up on this list. After a 0.87 GO/AO ratio last spring, he ended up right around his career rate in the regular season of 1.35. Even with a similar GO/AO ratio, he managed a career-best 17 homers. This spring, Nimmo has really gone to the extreme hitting nearly everything in the air. The data says he should decrease his fly ball rate by nearly seven percent this year compared to last season. His power numbers aren’t off the charts with just two homers and six extra-base hits but he’s cut his strikeout rate and is hitting a solid .291. After a 2018 breakout of sorts with 53 extra base hits, it seems like Nimmo is making even more of an effort to elevate the ball this spring. I worry a little about his batting average given his patience and contact rates, but given his approach this spring we may be looking at 20-25 homers this year from Nimmo.

Manuel Margot (OF – SD)
Margot is once again putting balls in the air his spring. This approach has not worked out for him thus far in the majors and it resulted in just a 5.5% HR/FB rate in 2018. There’s hope here because while he improved his hard contact and decreased his soft contact last year, his home run rate was nearly cut in half. He was middle of the pack in terms of line drive/fly ball exit velocity last year, so there’s positive regression coming. Margot is still just 24 years old and I was invested in Margot heavily last year to my disappointment. However, Margot remains firm on putting the ball in the air this spring and it’s helped him hit .315 with three homers and eight XBH. The Padres have a crowded outfield, so Margot will need to earn his keep. I think the power should bounce back to the mid-teens given the opportunity. If he learns to be a better base stealer given his elite speed (96th percentile via BaseballSavant), there might finally be the breakout for Margot I’ve been hoping for.

Kike Hernandez (2B/SS/OF – LAD)
Hernandez mashed an impressive 21 home runs in 2018. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming, mostly due to lack of playing time. Hernandez has outright won the second base job for the Dodgers to start 2019. Given the depth of the roster, Hernandez will likely sit against tough righties given his splits. That being said, he can also play the outfield and should compile over 500 plate appearances in 2019. His improved contact rates have cut his strikeout rates each of the last three seasons. He’ll need to continue those high contact rates given his fly ball approach if he wants to remain in the lineup. I see a player that’s similar to Nimmo in Hernandez but without as much speed and more batting average risk. He’s still a great utility guy to roster as he’s eligible at multiple positions.

Jorge Soler (OF – KC)
Soler missed most of the season with an injury and has yet to accrue more than 405 PA or hit more than 12 homers in a single season. We know Soler has power, he mashed 24 homers in 2017 at Triple-A in just 74 games. He pulled that off with a 45% fly ball rate but it dipped to just 34% last year. If Soler can maintain his heavy fly ball approach, we might finally see the breakout we’ve been waiting for. He’s going to need to maintain an improved zone contact rate like he had last season and of course, requires a good bill of health. I’m sure he will struggle to maintain an average above .250 if he starts launching balls in the air at a 45% rate, but he went off the board after pick 300, so he’s basically free. If you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, he literally is free. He’s entering his age-27 season, so it could be now or never for Soler.

Max Schrock (2B – STL)
Schrock is an off-the-radar fantasy player who will start the year at Triple-A for the Cardinals. Schrock came over to the Cardinals from the Athletics and brings a contract-first approach. He’s never shown much power and has moderate speed but has never posted a strikeout rate above 9.2% at any level. Now, at age-24, he’s starting to modify his approach putting more balls in the air. Schrock previously hit ground balls over 50% of the time and looks to be elevated more the last couple of seasons and carried it into the spring. He’s a longshot to break out as he’s blocked at the moment by Kolten Wong but might be someone to keep an eye on if an injury occurs in the St. Louis infield. If Schrock unlocks some power with his high contact approach, he might just be useful in mixed formats later in the year.

Garrett Hampson (2B/SS – COL)
Hampson is currently locked into a battle for the second base job with Ryan McMahon. Both are having great springs and I smell a platoon a-brewin’. Unfortunately, the righty, Hampson would see fewer plate appearances if that is the case. Hampson has game-changing speed which is why fantasy owners are excited about him but his average to slightly below-average power could play up in Colorado. Typically, I’d expect an improvement on his power numbers from the minors but the Rockies’ minor league parks play up to power as well. Still, a jump in fly ball rate could make provide a few more home runs for Hampson over the course of the season. The range of outcomes is extremely large with Hampson. Over 600 PA, Hampson could hit 12 HR and steal 35 bases. Then again, in the short-side platoon, he may end up with a handful of HR and 15-18 SB. Given his potential approach change, I might set his HR ceiling at 15, so if you have room, go ahead and stash him if he’s on your waiver wire.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Photo Credit:Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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2019 Bold Predictions – Fantasy Baseball

Well, last year I hit on two out of eight bold predictions. I guess my prediction on Ozzie Albies wasn’t terrible. I projected 25 homers and 30 steals. I hit on the power, but he did not run as much as I hoped. I’m most proud of my long-shot (at the time) that Patrick Corbin would finish the season as a top 20 SP. I had him ranked in the low-40s and most sites had him between the 60th and 80th SP off the boards, so this was extremely bold. Yes, I’m bragging about my one really good bold prediction, but I also had some really bad ones like Delino DeShields over Starling Marte…. Whoops. Alright, enough intro. I want to focus my bold predictions within the fantasy realm and write a quick blurb as to why I feel there’s a chance they come to fruition.

2019 BOLD PREDICTIONS – FREEZESTATS

Michael Conforto leads the National League in home runs in 2019

Conforto ended 2018 with 29 home runs but spent a good portion of the first two months recovering and gaining strength from his offseason shoulder surgery. He showed us he was healthy in the second half by hitting 17 home runs in just 68 games. I don’t love the prorating game as much as the next person but that’s 40 home runs across a 160 game pace. Last year, Nolan Arenado led the National League with 38 home runs. The other candidates Conforto will have to overcome include Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Trevor Story, Rhys Hoskins, and I suppose my guy Hunter Renfroe (see below). The BAT projects Arenado to lead the National League with 40 homers. Can a healthy Conforto reach 40 this year? I think so, especially with power down across the board last year, Conforto is my guy this year and I’ve ranked him inside the top 60 overall.

Jackie Bradley Jr. is a top 100 fantasy asset in standard 5×5 Roto

Bradley Jr. has modified his swing and is working with J.D. Martinez. I’ve been putting my money where my mouth is grabbing JBJ pretty much everywhere. I’ve got him in my PitcherList Best Ball draft, TGFBI, and my 12-team home league. Bradley finished 2018 with just 13 homers and a .234 average. As a result, he’s being drafted around 230 overall. However, he stole a career-best 17 bags on only 18 attempts. Yes, he’s faster than you think. He’s likely to hit seventh or eighth in a stacked Red Sox lineup which isn’t great but not a death sentence in a deep AL lineup. Bradley’s hard-hit rates and exit velocities are up with the big boys and he was extremely unlucky on his barrels last year. This is a guy who is still in his prime and hit 26 home runs while hitting .267 in 2016. If he gets back to 25 homers and 15 steals with a .260 average, that should be right near Aaron Hicks just inside the top 100.

Hunter Renfroe becomes Khris Davis

I wanted to go extremely bold and have Renfroe finish the season ranked higher than Davis, but that would be nuts. Davis is so steady with 40+ homers and 100+ RBI. Unfortunately, I don’t think Renfroe will get the at-bats to reach 100 RBI. So, how can Renfroe become Khris Davis? First off, Renfroe hit 18 home runs in the second half of 2018, so we know he has elite power. I tweeted out a comparison of Davis from 2015 and Renfroe from 2018 back in January. Their results and Statcast metrics were nearly identical. The outfield in San Diego is crowded so something does have to give in order for this prediction to come to fruition. To qualify, Renfroe needs to hit over 35 homers and drive in 90 runs in 2019 and become a consensus top-100 player in 2020 drafts.

Victor Robles is more valuable than Vladimir Guerrero and Juan Soto in standard 5×5 Roto value.

The hype on both Soto and Guerrero is understandable. Soto, at age-19, looked like a 10-year veteran and by all accounts, Vlad has the best bat in the Minors since Mike Trout. Both are going inside the top 42 overall since February 1st. Robles, while has seen a massive jump in ADP, is still going just after pick 100. Here’s my thinking, coming into 2018, Robles was the second-ranked prospect after Ronald Acuña but a shoulder injury derailed his season. Robles has elite speed, like 40 SB-type speed. His power hasn’t quite developed as he’s just 21 but has been graded out with 50-raw power. We’ve seen plenty of low-to-moderate power hitters come up and increase their home run production. Robles’ high-Contact, high-BABIP profile gives him a solid batting average floor. A high-end, realistic projection for Robles is something like .290 18 HR 32 SB. That’s extremely similar to Starling Marte’s 2018 who finished 29th on the Razzball Player Rater. Vladitio is already dealing with an injury, but Robles over Soto would be extremely bold based on ADP. I currently have Soto at 39 overall and Guerrero at 60, so there you have it.

Anthony Alford is fantasy relevant in 12-team leagues in the second half.

That means, he’s either a top 260 overall player or a top 175 hitter in the second half of 2019. The Blue Jays have a stacked farm system, we know that. Before Vlad and Bo Bichette, there was Anthony Alford. He’s still just 24 years old with only 28 plate appearances in the big leagues. The outfielders currently on the Major League roster are Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Billy McKinney, and Teoscar Hernandez. I’m not sold on McKinney or Hernandez and the Blue Jays are rebuilding. They need to see what they have in Alford. He’s had a nice spring which is nearly meaningless unless you’re like Alford trying to fight for a spot on the roster. He’s going 750 overall in drafts and therefore undrafted in 99% of leagues; that’s what makes this bold. He has good speed and some pop and was a top 25 prospect once upon a time. With playing time, he could hit a handful of homers and steal double-digit bases in the second half to make this prediction a reality.

Lewis Brinson is more valuable in Standard 5×5 Roto than A.J. Pollack

Now, this is BOLD! Brinson hit .199 with a 30% strikeout rate last year. Yikes. He was the top prospect from Milwaukee in the Christian Yelich trade before the 2018 season. His 2018 was brutal, there’s no doubt but he was a top 20 prospect as recently as one year ago. Brinson is crushing this spring but I’m not putting much weight into that. He’s modified his swing to stay in the zone longer increasing his probability for contact. That’s a small adjustment but one that could help vault Brinson to the next level. Last year he’s was very unlucky with a .257  BABIP. His xBABIP was .301 and xHR was 14 per xStats.org. Keep in mind, that’s in just over 400 plate appearances. Per BaseballSavant, he was just inside the top third of hitters on average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (EV FB/LD). Where things really get interesting is his speed. He hasn’t stolen many bases but regularly stole 20+ bags in the minors. His sprint speed is in the top 96% of the league. If he can hit 22-24 HR with 15-18 steals, he will provide more value than an often injured Pollack. I like Pollack and I think if he’s healthy, he’s a top 50 player. I just don’t expect more than 400 plate appearances from him and believe these two players are more similar than you think. I need quite a bit of help here, but Pollack’s injury history gives this prediction some life.

Robbie Ray Wins the NL Cy Young

Ray’s walk rate was brutal in 2018 at 13.3% and over five walks per nine innings. Walks always seem to be an issue for Ray. Even in his breakout of 2017, his walk rate was over 10%. What he can do and always has been able to do is strike batters out at a high clip. Do you know who else had issues with walks but transformed into a Cy Young winner? How about Blake Snell? Snell’s walk rates the years prior to 2018 were 12.7% and 10.8%. Both pitchers throw hard and have good breaking balls. Snell ramped his fastball velocity up in 2018 averaging over 96 MPH. Ray, on the other hand, saw a slight dip in his velocity last season. I think for Ray, velocity is key because his fastball used to be a plus pitch for him with a 12.3 pitch value in 2017 but down to -3.2 in 2018. Obviously, Ray needs to get his walks under control as well but if his velocity looks good and he cuts down on the walk rate, we are a lucky BABIP away from a Blake Snell-type season.  

Matt Strahm is a top 50 Starting Pitcher

It’s finally happening, Matt Strahm is likely joining the Padres starting rotation. He was a starter in Royals system in 2015 and 2016 and has never thrown more than 125 innings in a single season. But, Strahm put on a bunch of weight in an unorthodox way to help build strength to hold up over the course of a full season. He’s reportedly hitting 96 MPH on the gun this spring. He throws four pitches and has a great fastball and curveball. If he can develop either his change or curve, he could not only have great strikeout rates but go deeper into games. I’d only expect a maximum of 150 innings this year but with 160+ strikeouts and good ratios, that’s easily top 50. Now for part two.

The Padres have 3 starting pitchers that finish inside the top 50 for SPs

This is a spin-off if the Matt Strahm bold prediction because I had the Strahm prediction, pegged about a month ago. Now, he’s being drafted just outside of the top 50 SPs. This is bold because the Padres don’t have a single pitcher drafted as a top 50 starter. Lucchesi is the closest at 55 and 195 overall. I love Lucchesi this year who was successful last year with two pitches and is adding a cutter this spring. The other possible top 50 options include extreme riser Chris Paddack (441), Matt Strahm (386), and Robbie Erlin (577). Paddack has had massive inflation with a dominant spring. He looks like a prime candidate to make the rotation out of spring. He’s just 23 years old and coming off of an injury. Don’t expect more than 125 innings, but he might just be good enough to sneak into the top 50.

Zach Eflin outperforms everyone’s favorite sleeper and teammate Nick Pivetta

While I had this prediction drafted up about two weeks ago, I’ve got to give some credit to @BatflipCrazy for throwing this out first on his podcast this week. Great call! I get the hype on Nick Pivetta, I’m not even low on him as I have him as my 35th SP. His K-BB% is fantastic. He seemed to be unlucky in terms of ERA and BABIP last season based on all ERA-estimators. The Phillies had one of the worst defenses by Fangraphs DEF metrics last year. They upgraded by adding Jean Segura at shortstop and replacing Rhys Hoskins in left field with Andrew McCutchen and the aforementioned Hoskins moving over to his natural position, first base. So while I expect both to improve, let’s compare the two by the numbers.  

2018 K-BB% FIP SwStr% Soft% HR/9
Nick Pivetta 19.7% 3.80 12.0% 18.7% 1.32
Zach Eflin 15.7% 3.80 10.3% 20.5% 1.13

Pivetta has the better strikeout upside, that’s evident in the K-BB% and SwStr%. However, Eflin’s FIP matched Pivetta’s thanks to inducing more weak contact and limiting hard contact/home runs. Elfin has a good slider and changeup to go with a 95 MPH fastball. That sounds similar to Pivetta’s repertoire, doesn’t it? I actually think Eflin has some more strikeout upside in that arm as well. Given his well-above-average control and ability to limit hard contact, I think the strikeout rate could push Eflin over the top of Pivetta in 2019. I’ll add to this prediction that Eflin will be drafted above Pivetta in 2020 drafts as well.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Comparing FreezeStats Rankings vs Yahoo! Rankings (Fantasy Baseball)

Earlier this week I covered players I was higher/lower on compared to ESPN rankings. Today, I’m looking into Yahoo! rankings and comparing where we differ. After reviewing both sets of rankings, I think Yahoo! is a little bit more accurate with their rankings compared to ESPN. I’ll be highlighting a few players on each end of the spectrum to help you prepare and find values in your draft this weekend. First, let’s start with players I’m higher on and the guys I’m targeting in Yahoo! leagues.

FreezeStats vs Yahoo! Rankings - Players I'm Higher On

PlayerFreezeStats RankYahoo RankDifference
Jose Ramirez, CLE3107
Francisco Lindor, CLE12219
Manny Machado, SD132310
Xander Bogaerts, BOS263913
Trevor Bauer, CLE254621
Patrick Corbin, WSH486113
Marcell Ozuna, STL406424
Adalberto Mondesi, KC516514
Justin Upton, LAA597415
Matt Olson, OAK639128
Luis Severino, NYY529644
Michael Conforto, NYM589739
Joey Gallo, TEX719827
Matt Chapman, OAK8910314
Robinson Cano, NYM7011141
Aaron Hicks, NYY8211230
Max Muncy, LAD8711932
Eloy Jimenez, CWS10512015
Craig Kimbrel,6212159
German Marquez, COL8412945
Stephen Piscotty, OAK10913627
Travis Shaw, MIL7714063
Yadier Molina, STL13516126
Nick Pivetta, PHI13616226
Ryan Braun, MIL12017050
Kenta Maeda, LAD16018222
Max Kepler, MIN15018838
Domingo Santana, SEA16620337
Jackie Bradley Jr, BOS14920455
Hunter Renfroe, SD16120948
Jesse Winker, CIN16821446
Ramon Laureano, OAK15421763
Shohei Ohtani, LAA13923293
Tyler Skaggs, LAA17423965
Joe Musgrove, PIT147250103
Ketel Marte, ARI17527499
Trey Mancini, BAL19028393
Danny Jansen, TOR20428480
Jimmy Nelson, MIL191291100
Anibal Sanchez, WAS201N/R-

This is the second straight year Yahoo has disrespected Jose Ramirez. He was WAY down in the 60s last year believe it or not. I guess a jump to 10th overall is an improvement. There’s a lot of talk about his second half because he hit .218 on a .208 BABIP. I’m sorry, but that BABIP won’t happen again. He might not reach .300 but a .275-.280 BABIP makes a lot more sense. Besides, even with the poor BABIP his full season pace using his second-half numbers comes out to 25 homers, 35 steals, 104 runs, and 88 RBI! You know I love Trevor Bauer, no surprise there, but Yahoo doesn’t seem to like Patrick Corbin either, gimme that slider! Marcell Ozuna and Justin Upton are guys who are slipping in rankings but shouldn’t be. They have not shown any signs of decline in their profiles, I’ll take both as my number two OF but could finish borderline top 12. Maybe Yahoo is devaluing power a little bit with their rankings of Matt Olson, Michael Conforto, and Joey Gallo. Did they know that power was down across the board last year? Kimbrel is low because he doesn’t have a job, so I’ll gladly grab him at his ranking.

I will gladly take 220 strikeouts from German Marquez at pick 129 overall. Thank you! Looks like I’m waiting until Ryan Braun through Ramon Laureano to grab my third outfielder. There’s a ton of talent there with power and/or speed there. I have another question. Why does Yahoo! hate players with multi-position eligibility who hit cleanup for one of the best lineups in the league and have back-to-back 30 homer seasons? Hi Travis Shaw. If you think I hate catchers, just look at Yadier Molina and Danny Jansen. Looks like those guys are my catchers in Yahoo leagues!

FreezeStats vs Yahoo! Rankings - Players I'm Lower On

PlayerFreezeStats RankYahoo RankDifference
Nolan Arenado, COL936
Javier Baez, CHC24177
Corey Kluber, CLE32257
Juan Soto, WSH392712
Starling Marte, PIT39309
Carlos Correa, HOU573522
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR674918
Jack Flaherty, STL1005149
Corey Seager, LAD975443
Jameson Taillon, PIT865531
Jose Berrios, MIN986335
Gleyber Torres, NYY856817
Eddie Rosario, MIN916922
Matt Carpenter, STL79709
Jonathan Villar, BAL957817
Josh Donaldson, ATL1247945
David Price, BOS1068719
AJ Pollock, LAD1079512
Dee Gordon, SEA14110635
Tim Anderson, CWS17710968
Cesar Hernandez, PHI18413252
Kyle Schwarber, CHC23113893
Miguel Cabrera, DET245143102
Willson Contreras, CHC18814444
Billy Hamilton, KC23914891
Eric Hosmer, SD17914930
Dallas Keuchel,20815256
Buster Posey, SF18215527
Rick Porcello, BOS25516392
Jonathan Schoop, MIN24316578
Byron Buxton, MIN25417678
Jake Arrieta, PHI24618363
Odubel Herrera, PHI293187106
Gregory Polanco, PIT26019466
Jon Gray, COL29519798
Kyle Seager, SEA26720265
Alex Colome, CWS325222103
Arodys Vizcaino, ATL30822583
Miguel Sano, MIN28923851
Brandon Morrow, CHC340240100
Chris Paddack, SD30524758
Julio Teheran, ATL34127764

Oh my goodness Juan Soto! Yahoo! is extremely high on Soto expecting him to finish inside the top 30 overall. For reference, last season on the Razzball Player Rater, Paul Goldschmidt finished as the 28th player overall. Goldy hit .290 with 33 homers, 7 steals, and over 170 combined runs + RBI. Do we really expect Soto to pull that off this year? I’m out on Soto (for this year at least). So Jack Flaherty is an ace now? There are way too many question marks with Flaherty and quite a bit of regression in his numbers. He managed a .257 BABIP with a 9.6% walk rate, 79.3% strand rate, and a 1.19 HR/9. His zone rate was only 41.8% nearly four percent below league average and he didn’t induce swings outside the zone at an above-average rate. I don’t see a decrease in his walk rate and once the BABIP and strand rate stabilize, those home runs are going to hurt a lot more. Other 2nd & 3rd tier pitchers like Jameson Taillon and Jose Berrios are also being inflated in Yahoo’s rankings, I’ll be passing there as well. I’d much rather have Trevor Bauer and Patrick Corbin in the 4th and 6th rounds and basically have two aces.

Josh Donaldson and Miguel Cabrera are two old/broken veterans that I will be avoiding in my drafts. I think they both still have some of their skills intact but I just can’t trust them to stay healthy at all. Cesar Hernandez is a guy I really like but with the additions of Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen, he’s likely relegated to the bottom of the lineup where his counting stats will take a big hit. Tim Anderson is simply too high. He will be at the bottom of a not so great White Sox lineup. He should provide solid power and speed, but I’d rather have Yoan Moncada at a cheaper price. I mentioned how I don’t like the rabbits the other day and again, I’m the low man on them.

I’m not buying back into Byron Buxton this year. Hitting ninth is not good, I don’t care if he has a ton of homers this spring. Why is Gregory Polanco ranked inside of the top 200 overall? He’s out at least through May and likely to be sluggish upon his return. I’m not paying top 200 for a player who might just give you three months of production. Yahoo! has clearly bought into the Chris Paddack hype but is he going to give more than 100 innings?  I doubt it. I like him a ton and he’s shown his skills this spring but give me teammate Matt Strahm or Joe Musgrove instead.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.



FreezeStats Rankings vs ESPN Rankings – Fantasy Baseball

Part of my draft preparations involves comparing my rankings with the big box sites like ESPN and Yahoo!. Many fantasy players don’t expand their research beyond some of those big box rankings and as a result will only draft off of those cheat sheets. This is where you as an owner can gain an edge. In this article, I will compare ESPN’s site rankings with my rankings. If you want to see my complete rankings, just CLICK HERE! I just updated my Top 300 and positional rankings for the final time. Later this week, I’ll do the same with Yahoo’s rankings.

PLAYERS I’M HIGHER ON FOR 2019 – DRAFT AWAY!

FreezStats vs ESPN Rankings - Player I Like More

PlayerTeamPositionsFreezeStats RankingESPN RankingOverall Difference
Trea TurnerWSHSS6104
Ronald AcunaATLLF,CF10188
Aaron JudgeNYYRF,DH16215
Freddie FreemanATL1B14228
Trevor StoryCOLSS18279
Andrew BenintendiBOSLF,CF233512
Anthony RendonWSH3B273811
Carlos CarrascoCLESP36404
Xander BogaertsBOSSS254318
Eugenio SuarezCIN3B456015
Tommy PhamTBLF,CF407131
Jose AbreuCWS1B,DH497526
Michael ConfortoNYMLF,CF,RF597920
Robinson CanoNYM2B709121
Joey GalloTEX1B,LF,CF,RF719726
Aaron HicksNYYCF749925
Andrew McCutchenPHILF,RF8810012
Travis ShawMIL1B,3B,2B7810527
Adalberto MondesiKC2B,SS5111463
German MarquezCOLSP8411935
Matt OlsonOAK1B6212260
Stephen PiscottyOAKRF10913223
Max MuncyLAD1B,2B,3B8714760
Eloy JimenezCWSLF,RF10714942
Nomar MazaraTEXRF11615337
Shane BieberCLESP15416713
Andrew HeaneyLAASP14016929
Kenta MaedaLADSP16119029
Jackie Bradley Jr.BOSCF,RF14919344
Ketel MarteARI2B,SS17521439
Ross StriplingLADSP,RP15921758
Tyler SkaggsLAASP17421844
Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP19722831
Joe MusgrovePITSP14723184
Adam FrazierPIT2B,LF,RF18523348
Danny JansenTORC21224028
Ramon LaureanoOAKRF15525095
Domingo SantanaSEARF167282115
Garrett HampsonCOL2B,SS167294127
Anibal SanchezWSHSP190318128
Forrest WhitleyHOUSP213319106
Jesus LuzardoOAKSP201322121
Zach EflinPHISP,RP23932889
Julio UriasLADSP27133059
Welington CastilloCWSC26333673
Chris PaddackSDSP304414110
Matt StrahmSDSP,RP272N/R-
Steven DuggarSFCF,RF,DH269N/R-

I don’t need to go into my love for JBJ, I’ve gone on and on about him. I understand that we are only off by four picks with Trea Turner, but I’m not passing on Turner given his 60 stolen base upside. He showed his power hitting 19 homers last year and was unlucky with BABIP. His walk rate is improving and his contact rate and speed tell me he’s more of a .280-.290 hitter. I think ESPN is underselling Andrew Benintendi, which is odd because Red Sox and Yankees are usually ranked higher. His power will come back and his all-around skill set is perfect for a top 25 pick. Why does ESPN hate Tommy Pham? I get that he’s not the most healthy player but even in 130 games, Pham provides value inside of the top 50. What is going on with Adalberto Mondesi? I’m not even his biggest fan given his floor, but 114 overall? At that price, he could hit .220 with 10 homers and 25 steals and basically break even. Mondesi surpassed those numbers in half a season last year. I guess they believe he will struggle and be sent down to the minors at some point. Give me all the Max Muncy and Matt Olson in ESPN leagues. It seems like ESPN is devaluing power based on my analysis. Some other players with power I like more include Michael Conforto, Travis Shaw, and Domingo Santana. Then there’s Eloy Jimenez. ESPN has Vlad extremely high but a guy like Eloy who has more power at this point and great contact skills ranked near 150? I just don’t get it. Eloy could come up and hit .280 w/ 30 homers.

Over to pitching. ESPN is overvaluing pitching early. To some extent, I agree. I like to grab an ace and sometimes two top 15 pitchers in the first four rounds. However, ESPN has a ton of starting pitchers in the mid to late rounds that are ranked way too low. I can understand the German Marquez ranking because of Coors, but he’s a nice value and can be had as your number three or four SP in some cases. Some of my favorite pitcher values include Shane Beiber, Andrew Heaney, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Musgrove. These guys will most likely be on my teams in ESPN leagues. So will Chris Paddack and apparently they forgot about Matt Strahm, but I won’t. I’m a big fan of Zach Eflin and I have a feeling he might show up in my Bold Predictions.

PLAYERS I’M LOWER ON FOR 2019 – NO THANKS!

FreezeStats vs ESPN Rankings - Players I like Less

PlayerTeamPositionsFreezeStatsESPNOverall Difference
Corey KluberCLESP301911
Juan SotoWSHLF39318
Noah SyndergaardNYMSP473710
Cody BellingerLAD1B,CF48399
Carlos CorreaHOUSS664620
Ozzie AlbiesATL2B814833
Gleyber TorresNYY2B,SS855332
Clayton KershawLADSP1055451
Matt CarpenterSTL1B,2B,3B796118
Eddie RosarioMINLF917021
Corey SeagerLADSS977225
David PriceBOSSP1108228
Mike FoltynewiczATLSP1189226
Madison BumgarnerSFSP1489355
A.J. PollockLADCF1139419
Dee GordonSEA2B,CF1419546
Michael BrantleyHOULF,DH11410311
Willson ContrerasCHCC19411183
Buster PoseySFC,1B19211775
Carlos SantanaCLE1B,3B22112992
J.A. HappNYYSP18613353
Eric HosmerSD1B17813642
Rick PorcelloBOSSP256143113
Dallas KeuchelSP20915455
Billy HamiltonKCCF23916178
Jon LesterCHCSP23416866
Kyle SchwarberCHCLF24017169
Jonathan SchoopMIN2B24218755
Odubel HerreraPHICF29220389
Miguel SanoMIN1B,3B,DH28823454
Julio TeheranATLSPN/R249-
Jonathan LucroyLAACN/R281-
Tim TebowNYMLFN/R342-
Adam WainwrightSTLSPN/R361-
Kyler MurrayOAKCFN/R367-

As I mentioned, ESPN is very high on the elite starting pitchers which is why Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard, and Clayton Kershaw show up here. With Carlos Correa, I’m starting to come around on a bit now that he looks healthy, but I still likely won’t end up with him this year. If you scrolled to the bottom, you probably noticed that Tim Tebow and Kylar Murray are both inside ESPN’s top 400. WHAT!?!? Talk about lazy. It’s almost like the ESPN is using college football analysts to complete their fantasy baseball rankings. Either that or they ranked their top 300 and one guy decided to go to 400 overall but only plays in 12-team leagues. Come on ESPN, you’re better than this! Eric Hosmer is still being ranked because of name value, I will almost never draft him. ESPN is still valuing the rabbits (or speed only guys) like Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton. I just can’t draft any player that high while they will hurt me in three to four categories.

I suppose I should touch on Ozzie Albies. I was extremely high on Albies last year expecting a power/speed breakout. He showed more power but less speed than I expected but overall, my ranking was solid. The metrics don’t support 25 homer power for Albies, if he can’t take a step forward in speed and struggles to take walks, he could be dropped in the lineup. I am seeing more of a 20 homer, 16-steal season without great counting stats. That’s good but not top 50. Wow, do I hate old boring veteran pitchers without strikeout upside. Im not surprised that ESPN likes them, again the name value slides them up rankings. Enter Rick Porcello, Jon Lester, and Dallas Keuchel. These guys are over-the-hill and their past success is boosting their draft price. I won’t be owning any of them this year (or probably any year going forward).

Thanks for checking out these ranking comparisons. Make sure you refer back to this article when you draft in your ESPN league this weekend.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


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Projections for 2019: Starting Pitchers (Fantasy Baseball)

I’ve finally gotten to a point where my rankings and projections are complete for the 2019 save for some tinkering based on injuries, roster construction, lineup spot, etc. You can find all of my positional and overall rankings here. I’ve also include a link to the google sheet for easier access. I will try and update these projections regularly, so check back. If you’re wondering why I haven’t projected any closers or relievers, it’s because they are nearly impossible to project. As difficult as wins are to predict, saves are significantly more difficult. Plus, the volatility of the closer position is very high and many teams have committees. All that’s left to do before the season starts is compare my rankings to Yahoo and ESPN and get my bold predictions out!

Right now, it’s time for starting pitcher projections. You’ll notice I’m a bit conservative when it comes to innings but that’s the landscape of baseball today. The fewest number of 200 inning pitchers occurred last year and the trend is continuing to plummet. If I’ve missed someone, feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you projection. Enjoy!

2019 Starting Pitcher Projections

PlayerTeamPosIPWERAWHIPK
Max ScherzerWASSP214.0182.960.96275
Chris SaleBOSSP182.1152.690.94261
Jacob deGromNYMSP205.3142.891.01249
Justin VerlanderHOUSP202.0173.281.05257
Trevor BauerCLESP201.5173.231.13241
Gerrit ColeHOUSP200.0163.391.14246
Carlos CarrascoCLESP195.3163.371.14229
Corey KluberCLESP209.0173.511.08213
Aaron NolaPHISP195.9153.411.12214
Blake SnellTBSP179.0143.341.13215
Walker BuehlerLADSP176.6133.371.13203
Noah SyndergaardNYMSP173.9123.321.16194
Patrick CorbinWASSP192.0143.541.20220
Luis SeverinoNYYSP178.2143.491.15199
James PaxtonNYYSP157.9133.511.15186
Mike ClevingerCLESP193.1143.741.19204
Stephen StrasburgWASSP162.0123.541.18185
Zack GreinkeARISP198.4133.821.16186
German MarquezCOLSP193.6143.741.25222
Jameson TaillonPITSP188.9133.641.20191
Jose BerriosMINSP187.6123.851.22196
Jack FlahertySTLSP174.5133.831.22190
Zack WheelerNYMSP174.6123.761.19178
Clayton KershawLADSP159.2133.541.09160
Mike FoltynewiczATLSP186.8143.871.24191
Luis CastilloCINSP186.2123.811.20194
Miles MikolasSTLSP196.8143.781.18167
David PriceBOSSP187.6153.981.21178
Masahiro TanakaNYYSP173.1133.891.19179
Charlie MortonTBSP167.7113.721.24188
Eduardo RodriguezBOSSP161.0123.861.26170
Robbie RayARISP157.9103.791.27193
Nick PivettaPHISP170.5123.921.27186
Andrew HeaneyLAASP172.6113.901.20173
Kenta MaedaLADSP140.0103.731.20150
Rich HillLADSP137.0103.841.19151
Chris ArcherPITSP178.3113.881.28194
Madison BumgarnerSFSP179.8123.981.20157
Joe MusgrovePITSP162.0113.841.22160
Cole HamelsCHCSP177.0123.971.28177
Shane BieberCLESP159.6103.761.22159
Yu DarvishCHCSP153.3103.891.26170
Carlos MartinezSTLSP145.093.891.29147
Kyle HendricksCHCSP192.0134.011.22158
Ross StriplingLADSP134.993.841.23140
Nathan EovaldiBOSSP144.2113.981.26133
Tyler SkaggsLAASP151.1103.951.27148
Alex WoodCINSP156.8103.891.26147
Zach EflinPHISP155.4103.921.27150
Yusei KikuchiSEASP168.8114.001.28155
Anibal SanchezWASSP151.1104.041.27147
Rick PorcelloBOSSP187.2144.201.29170
J.A. HappNYYSP168.2124.221.29164
Zack GodleyARISP167.194.011.36173
Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP121.193.901.23119
Alex ReyesSTLSP118.883.871.31133
Freddy PeraltaMILSP113.483.911.28129
Matt BoydDETSP176.0104.151.26171
Joey LucchesiSDSP156.4103.981.26159
Kyle FreelandCOLSP193.3124.121.30158
Collin McHughHOUSP151.0103.971.25142
Steven MatzNYMSP162.994.061.26165
Tyler GlasnowTBSP131.194.021.36147
Jon GrayCOLSP159.0103.981.35169
Sonny GrayCINSP157.8114.071.35147
Sean NewcombATLSP170.5114.161.37169
Mike MinorTEXSP165.3104.221.25153
Jimmy NelsonMILSP133.093.981.31129
Jeff SamardzijaSFSP174.5104.121.30164
Jake ArrietaPHISP168.3114.181.31143
Jesus LuzardoOAKSP109.273.711.22113
Joshua JamesHOUSP95.063.851.24108
Marco GonzalesSEASP177.0114.111.29150
Anthony DeSclafaniCINSP140.094.091.27130
Kevin GausmanATLSP178.5114.201.35166
Jose QuintanaCHCSP184.0114.231.31163
Kyle GibsonMINSP177.0114.221.38165
Michael FulmerDETSP164.7104.181.30141
Dallas KeuchelFASP180.0104.171.32140
Derek HollandSFSP158.694.181.31142
Luke WeaverARISP153.8104.211.37145
Jon LesterCHCSP174.2134.441.36140
Dylan BundyBALSP166.894.291.31174
Forrest WhitleyHOUSP98.073.921.26105
Danny DuffyKCSP166.8104.271.34153
Trevor RichardsMIASP141.894.151.38142
Jake OdorizziMINSP156.8104.331.34149
Jake JunisKCSP172.594.271.31159
Trevor WilliamsPITSP175.2104.281.31132
Reynaldo LopezCHWSP180.0104.481.36160
Sean Reid-FoleyTORSP104.074.211.37111
Carlos RodonCWSSP166.6104.441.40139
Dereck RodriguezSFSP171.194.311.34134
Julio TeheranATLSP168.0104.631.43152
Jhoulys ChacinMILSP179.294.361.39149
Marcus StromanTORSP181.0104.261.41140
Tanner RoarkCINSP171.194.461.38145
Mike LeakeSEASP182.9104.331.32123
Robbie ErlinSDSP129.074.371.26101
Ivan NovaCHWSP170.094.551.31121
Wade LeBlancSEASP162.0104.231.23138
Julio UriasLADSP105.983.891.26112
Brad KellerKCSP163.094.111.31123
Jose UrenaFLASP174.094.211.30142
Tyler AndersonCOLSP168.0104.331.34156
Vincent VelasquezPHISP149.094.121.28156
Nick KinghamPITSP146.494.171.26138
Mike FiersOAKSP158.094.231.26135
Trevor CahillLAASP121.083.901.30117
Ryan YarbroughTBSP129.094.211.26118
CC SabathiaNYYSP141.094.281.32124
Clay BuchholzTORSP164.094.221.29134
Michael PinedaMINSP133.084.191.28121
Touki ToussaintATLSP121.184.151.28131
Michael WachaSTLSP145.6104.261.39126
Jaime BarriaLAASP132.084.311.28112
Ryan BoruckiTORSP133.084.331.31109
Wei-Yin ChenMIASP156.084.171.34129
Matt ShoemakerTORSP119.064.391.29110
Sandy AlcantaraFLASP125.964.551.42116
Zach DaviesMILSP159.0104.211.31123
Domingo GermanNYYSP119.084.291.32126
Chris PaddackSDSP71.543.651.2073
Corbin BurnesMILSP89.064.091.2995
Caleb SmithMIASP124.074.091.28126
Matt StrahmSDSP/RP91.264.111.2796
Tyson RossDETSP126.084.211.37115
Chase AndersonMILSP159.5114.541.36138
Dan StrailyMIASP156.684.791.47135
Antonio SenzatelaCOLSP161.094.521.37128
Alex CobbBALSP169.084.511.37126
Matt HarveyLAASP161.0104.281.29133
Aaron SanchezTORSP134.074.691.43109
Felix HernandezSEASP148.084.711.38119
Wade MileyHOUSP163.5124.411.34134
Mike SorokaATLSP98.064.011.2393
Jordan ZimmermannDETSP153.074.711.35124
Lucas GiolitoCWSSP159.094.691.42132

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Projections for 2019: Hitters (Fantasy Baseball)

Here they are! I really wish I had been able to reach the 300 hitters that I set out to do in the offseason, but man it was time-consuming. I ended up compiling 266 hitter projections. I feel that they are extremely accurate given the human element and the up-to-date news at my fingertips. Hit me up with any questions you have on the projections. Let me know if you think something seems way off. I’ll be happy to start a discussion. If you’d like to view the projections in a Google Sheet, the link is right here. I plan on publishing my pitcher projections early next week. Stay tuned.

2019 Freeze Projections - Hitters (Fantasy Baseball)

PlayerTeamPosPARHRRBISBAVGOBP
Mookie BettsBOSOF6611053193270.3120.401
Mike TroutLAAOF6141053792220.3100.450
Christian YelichMILOF66510026101190.3030.385
J.D. MartinezBOSOF/DH6061033911030.3040.382
Jose RamirezCLE2B/3B6531023096230.2870.387
Freddie FreemanATL1B66998309690.3010.377
Trea TurnerWASSS6831001569470.2830.354
Nolan ArenadoCOL3B646983610520.2900.362
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATLOF629913295200.2800.357
Jose AltuveHOU2B631951979210.3100.383
Manny MachadoSDSS/3B65996329790.2830.355
Aaron JudgeNYYOF635104409570.2720.392
Trevor StoryCOLSS619843399190.2780.336
Francisco LindorCLESS631983175150.2860.358
Andrew BenintendiBOSOF6601031982200.2900.368
Paul GoldschmidtSTL1B64797329870.2820.380
Giancarlo StantonNYYOF657984010230.2670.350
Alex BregmanHOUSS/3B6491002790120.2850.386
Bryce HarperPHIOF6251023696110.2640.404
Javier BaezCHC2B/SS/3B616893095160.2720.310
Xander BogaertsBOSSS6198124100110.2940.366
Anthony RizzoCHC1B653942610050.2830.378
Anthony RendonWAS3B60590269430.2990.376
Whit MerrifieldKAN2B/OF670841464350.2850.340
Charlie BlackmonCOLOF660102267290.2820.347
Kris BryantCHC3B640101298040.2820.372
Juan SotoWASOF63596268850.2810.383
Lorenzo CainMILOF633941356240.2950.374
Khris DavisOAKOF/DH644934210310.2410.316
Marcell OzunaSTLOF59176279120.2910.347
Vlad Gurrero Jr.TOR3B56575278030.3040.379
Joey VottoCIN1B63189218320.2930.417
Starling MartePITOF581791674290.2770.324
Travis ShawMIL2B/3B61080339470.2600.346
Eugenio SuarezCIN3B62784319120.2700.355
Jose AbreuCWS1B63082279120.2790.333
Rhys HoskinsPHI1B/OF62888359730.2540.356
Tommy PhamTBOF574902369170.2740.365
Nick CastellanosDETOF63979268630.2830.341
Justin TurnerLAD3B56579247730.3030.379
George SpringerHOUOF63499277540.2700.354
Miguel AndujarNYY3B59579268740.2820.327
Robinson CanoNYM1B/2B62980199100.2940.362
Matt OlsonOAK1B62084348920.2600.347
Yasiel PuigCINOF574782970140.2710.340
Aaron HicksNYYOF578912582100.2620.365
Andrew McCutchenPHIOF629882477120.2660.361
Matt ChapmanOAK3B62787278920.2660.348
Daniel MurphyCOL1B/2B57982207420.3010.351
Mitch HanigerSEAOF60584248170.2730.348
Justin UptonLAAOF61883299070.2530.340
Adalberto MondesiKC2B/SS556741970340.2550.290
Michael ConfortoNYMOF63080318930.2600.356
Ender InciarteATLOF609811062240.2780.339
David PeraltaARIOF59979238640.2770.339
Cody BellingerLAD1B/OF590802883110.2570.343
Eddie RosarioMINOF60982238170.2710.308
Carlos CorreaHOUSS55582248640.2750.361
Nelson CruzMINDH59572329510.2600.342
Gleyber TorresNYY2B/SS59973278990.2580.329
Joey GalloTEX1B/OF59885439350.2170.318
Jean SeguraPHISS611861257180.2850.332
Rougned OdorTEX2B622782680110.2530.312
Stephen PiscottyOAKOF60977258530.2690.329
Eloy JimenezCHWOF53672267520.2860.342
Jose PerazaCINSS59582953260.2820.324
Ryan BraunMIL1B/OF531722274120.2750.337
Scooter GennettCIN2B59574238230.2770.328
J.T. RealmutoPHIC/1B53770227860.2740.338
Corey SeagerLADSS58783207420.2820.362
Jesus AguilarMIL1B54674309100.2600.342
Jonathan VillarBAL2B/SS629771657340.2500.320
Jose MartinezSTL1B/OF51559177030.2900.360
Mallex SmithSEAOF61683548360.2710.338
Matt CarpenterSTL1B/2B/3B62195277720.2510.363
David DahlCOLOF531662675110.2690.326
Ozzie AlbiesATL2B605731776180.2630.315
Max MuncyLAD1B/2B/3B57580308640.2470.355
Brian DozierWAS2B615842671130.2450.334
Wil MyersSD3B/OF562752378170.2490.320
Mike MoustakasMIL3B60569308910.2560.312
Eric HosmerSD1B64075207950.2690.339
Michael BrantleyHOUOF51568147090.2990.360
Nomar MazaraTEXOF60375238710.2650.332
Jorge PolancoMINSS618851558130.2730.341
Andrelton SimmonsLAASS602721370120.2820.334
Harrison BaderSTLOF555751961210.2600.324
Max KeplerMINOF60585237750.2550.340
Jackie BradleyBOSOF570742177140.2550.325
Ketel MarteARI2B/SS59377176490.2790.356
Elvis AndrusTEXSS605811163150.2710.325
A.J. PollockLADOF515682074150.2640.322
Marcus SemienOAKSS647841765140.2580.331
Tim AndersonCWSSS587701965200.2570.299
Josh DonaldsonATL3B55682267920.2530.362
Corey DickersonPITOF59872177670.2740.319
Edwin EncarnacionSEA1B/DH59275299320.2390.330
DJ LeMahieuNYY2B57578116260.2830.347
Amed RosarioNYMSS587621161260.2690.313
Hunter RenfroeSDOF55168318120.2470.304
Brandon NimmoNYMOF612871958120.2560.363
Shohei OhtaniLAADH485712274120.2570.339
Cesar HernandezPHI2B605761165170.2620.357
Adam FrazierPIT2B/OF60983145380.2790.343
Ian DesmondCOL1B/OF592751878170.2440.310
Dee GordonSEAOF60770344340.2760.307
Victor RoblesWASOF569671563240.2620.321
Rafael DeversBOS3B55669247740.2610.327
Jesse WinkerCINOF50070196610.2920.382
Paul DeJongSTLSS57573258020.2550.320
Jurickson ProfarOAK1B/2B/SS/3B59274187690.2600.330
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.TOR2B/SS59076207050.2630.300
Eduardo EscobarARISS/3B60978227530.2550.318
Ramon LaureanoOAKOF559671969160.2510.330
Yuli GurrielHOU1B/2B/3B51266137240.2910.329
Starlin CastroMIA2B61578136270.2720.325
Shin-Soo ChooTEXOF60583196350.2560.352
Gary SanchezNYYC52971268210.2430.330
Evan LongoriaSF3B61573207930.2530.312
Josh BellPIT1B58073157830.2650.353
Trey ManciniBAL1B/OF61070237410.2570.315
Yadier MolinaSTLC51957197130.2730.322
Nick MarkakisATLOF57871117220.2830.365
Austin MeadowsTBOF506611660140.2660.326
Chris TaylorLADSS/OF545661868110.2580.330
Yoan MoncadaCWS2B616762063140.2420.329
Domingo SantanaSEAOF57568207570.2540.332
Adam EatonWASOF52574958110.2810.364
Justin SmoakTOR1B56471278010.2430.342
Nick SenzelCIN3B480621756130.2760.352
Kyle SeagerSEA3B61071237720.2480.310
Randal GrichukTOROF52764297250.2420.297
Ryan O'HearnKC1B56567287420.2430.326
Luke VoitNYY1B50461256910.2640.334
Jonathan SchoopMIN2B/SS58563247420.2540.293
Brian AndersonMIA1B/OF61475127830.2600.336
Manuel MargotSDOF550641361150.2650.322
Kevin PillarTOROF512631566120.2640.307
Cedric MullinsBALOF615821352180.2460.327
Carlos SantanaCLE1B/3B61579208120.2390.357
Asdrubal CabreraTEX2B/SS/3B54562187420.2670.325
Franmil ReyesSDOF55061257210.2550.322
Maikel FrancoPHI3B53560227310.2630.314
Jake BauersCLE1B/OF525722073110.2340.326
Marwin GonzalezMIN1B/2B/SS/OF52067177070.2580.331
Kyle SchwarberCHCOF53569277330.2370.343
Joey WendleTB2B/3B/OF55366968130.2650.321
Ian KinslerSD2B553711757120.2540.315
Jed LowrieNYM2B/3B54772186310.2660.345
Kendrys MoralesTOR1B/DH58063257510.2450.324
Buster PoseySFC/1B5376096320.2830.362
Nick AhmedARISS58563197070.2520.311
Mark TrumboBALOF54866247300.2480.307
Odubel HerreraPHIOF56965167260.2550.306
Salvador PerezKANC52454267310.2490.286
C.J. CronMIN1B51165227320.2480.306
Yasmani GrandalMILC50161247220.2450.343
Willson ContrerasCHCC52253176740.2650.337
Brandon BeltSF1B52563196640.2570.347
Colin MoranPIT3B52562166910.2690.339
Willy AdamesTBSS561671673110.2380.318
Adam JonesFAOF57562156820.2650.314
Jason KipnisCLE2B/OF56771166070.2500.327
Jeimer CandelarioDET3B61272186840.2430.327
Yonder AlonsoCWS1B51561237210.2480.329
Tyler WhiteHOU1B/DH50061226820.2510.326
Miguel CabreraDET1B47762157100.2690.350
David FletcherLAA2B55562758120.2690.314
Kole CalhounLAAOF58770206940.2360.314
Hernan PerezMIL2B/SS/3B/OF485611354140.2570.303
Steven DuggarSFOF579701064170.2350.308
Alex VerdugoLADOF49458116350.2740.339
Joe PanikSF2B5407175450.2730.336
Ryan ZimmermanWAS1B48056197110.2550.333
Wilson RamosNYMC46652176400.2670.325
Luis UriasSD2B62073849110.2540.329
Keston HiuraMIL2B385461250100.2710.329
Enrique HernandezLAD2B/SS/OF49064185640.2490.339
Jake LambARI3B51865187020.2370.326
Ronald GuzmanTEX1B50856197030.2420.306
Jason HeywardCHCOF50765106050.2610.334
Jeff McNeilNYM2B45558952150.2820.336
Nate LoweTB1B42853185620.2690.348
Joc PedersonLADOF44559225730.2450.323
Billy HamiltonKCOF51054348360.2340.299
Lewis BrinsonMIAOF521571562120.2360.286
Jorge SolerKCOF49060196320.2410.326
Garrett HampsonCOL2B/SS39849838190.2770.348
Brandon CrawfordSFSS58063136930.2430.307
Niko GoodrumDET1B/2B/SS/3B/OF490501462110.2440.303
Peter AlonsoNYM1B41049245710.2480.326
Delino DeShieldsTEXOF47956550220.2480.334
Zack CozartLAA2B/SS/3B45863126540.2450.313
Teoscar HernandezTOROF47447225170.2470.312
Devon TravisTOR2B45559125440.2630.308
Miguel SanoMIN1B/3B49265207000.2260.318
Hunter DozierKC1B/3B54654186360.2340.293
Josh HarrisonDET2B53164115350.2530.298
Gregory PolancoPITOF42052165580.2480.327
Matt KempCINOF42553166210.2560.312
Freddy GalvisTORSS54055146150.2460.304
Albert AlmoraCHCOF4745465560.2730.319
Kevin KiermaierTBOF519671051130.2350.292
Ian HappCHC3B/OF41552165590.2400.335
Renato NunezBAL3B50755196110.2390.292
Dansby SwansonATLSS526531055110.2470.319
Orlando ArciaMILSS513511053120.2470.296
Robinson ChirinosHOUC46051246010.2300.316
Daniel PalkaCWSOF45552226020.2300.296
Danny JansenTORC46849155830.2540.332
Tucker BarnhartCINC51554115820.2510.337
Welington CastilloCWSC43049155910.2520.310
Brett GardnerNYYOF41258946110.2530.339
Jake CaveMINOF40049165640.2480.302
Willians AstudilloMINC37038114120.2930.322
Francisco CervelliPITC42047125420.2580.350
Albert PujolsLAA1B/DH43045156010.2500.302
Kolten WongSTL2B44045105060.2600.330
Ben ZobristCHC2B/OF4155684120.2740.354
Steve PearceBOS1B/OF35045145100.2670.348
Justin BourLAA1B39549165210.2440.334
Isiah Kiner-FalefaTEXC/2B/3B4124554890.2580.325
Alex GordonKANOF54059136030.2260.304
Avisail GarciaTBOF38945145040.2490.297
Mike ZuninoTBC48750265510.2130.276
Yan GomesWASC40945165300.2410.286
Tim BeckhamSEASS/3B41048125320.2460.305
Lonnie ChisenhallPITOF37940124210.2730.339
Neil WalkerMIA1B/2B/3B/OF49554135600.2330.314
Jay BruceSEA1B/OF40041185030.2340.311
Kyle TuckerHOUOF30033133980.2690.344
Mitch MorelandBOS1B39045135210.2390.321
Dustin PedroiaBOS2B3804454530.2690.346
Francisco MejiaSDC39539134420.2490.298
Jose PirelaSD2B/OF3904574450.2560.312
Didi GregoriusNYYSS29539124130.2640.319
Jonathan LucroyLAAC4234484910.2500.307
Omar NarvaezSEAC4124174320.2590.342
Austin BarnesLADC/2B4154294550.2400.338
Scott KingeryPHISS/3B3854383690.2420.292
Tyler FlowersATLC38042114700.2410.324
Ryon HealySEA1B38041144610.2320.289
Eric ThamesMIL1B/OF31536174050.2260.318
Jorge AlfaroMIAC40735134730.2340.276
Christian VazquezBOSC4003974330.2430.292
Austin HedgesSDC35034154020.2300.284
Kurt SuzukiWASC2953293800.2600.308
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDSS2543093390.2480.316
Grayson GreinerDETC4404574710.2300.311
Todd FrazierNYM3B36540134210.2190.293
Chris IannettaCOLC35035123900.2350.328
Chris DavisBAL1B49545175410.1900.281
Tyler O'NeilSTLOF22127153130.2380.320
Alex AvilaARIC37539124200.2130.323
Roberto PerezCLEC4154394910.2050.298
Jason CastroMINC3953984010.2110.302
Austin RileyATL3B1401852000.2420.305
Bo BichetteTOR2B2002362490.2580.306
Aledmys DiazHOUSS/3B2152782920.2480.302
Johan CamargoATLSS/3B2703383210.2590.311
Jedd GyorkoSTL2B/3B27533103310.2420.298
Nick WilliamsPHIOF39543154650.2520.312
Alen HansonSF3B3023073590.2510.296
Dexter FowlerSTLOF3294093850.2420.324
Matthew DuffyTB3B3604453790.2790.339
Yolmer SanchezCWS3B573621054110.2430.311

Thanks for checking out my work, let me know what you think of these projections.



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