Happy Memorial Day Weekend! With this being a holiday weekend, I’ll spare you a lengthy intro. We had mixed results last week and I hope you checked the wind prior to Tyler Mahle’s start in Wrigley. Or listened to my advice prior to the game. There are plenty of decent options next week. Remember the pitchers listed below have to be owned in 25% or fewer leagues based on FantasyPros consensus ownership rates.
Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF) 12% owned, @MIA Tuesday 5/28
Shark is very much pitching over his head right now and at some point, it’s going to blow up in his face. Are the Marlins, who basically roster a Triple-A team, where regression sets in? I doubt it. Besides, he’s throwing his slider and cutter more often while reducing the usage of his sinker. That sinker was brutal last season. He’s also getting ahead of hitters with a 65% F-Strike rate. Oh, and that team he’s facing, the Marlins, have a .265 wOBA at home this year. I’m not seeing a dominant performance for Jeff but a quality start with good ratios is on the docket. STREAM
Trevor Richards (SP – MIA) 9% owned, Home vs SF Tuesday 5/28
Richards is just 1-5 on the season but he pitched well last week against the Tigers. I suggested Richards as a streamer last week and this matchup is just as juicy and it’s in Miami. I discuss this under the Lopez blurb in detail, but Richards is able to handle weaker opponents. Plus Richards has that killer changeup and the Giants rank 28th in the league in terms of pitch value against the changeup. That’s another point for Richards. We know there likely won’t be a whole lot of run support but as long the walks are kept in check, he should put up solid ratios with at least a k per inning based on his 29.1% CSW rate. I’m streaming here but prefer the option below.
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA) 7% owned, home vs SF Wednesday 5/29
I know what you’re thinking, Lopez has gotten lit up in two of the three outings. Why is he on here? I get it but the matchup was against the Nationals in Washington. This one is against the Giants and at home. It’s a dream matchup. I’m starting to think Lopez is going to be a bum slayer and will get smoked on the road against better opponents. Lopez has given up four earned runs or more five times this year. Here are the opponents: @ATL, @CIN, @PHI, @NYM, @WAS.The Giants have been a little better of late but are still sporting a poor .281 wOBA over the last two weeks. So, back to Lopez and his home cookin’. Lopez will bring his talents back to South Beach for this one where he has a 1.93 ERA and 10.0 K/9. STREAM
Griffin Canning (SP – LAA) 23% owned, @OAK, Wednesday 5/29
If Canning is still available on your wire, you better act now! He now has 29 strikeouts in his first five starts in the big leagues and sports a ridiculous 16.4% swinging strike rate! That rate combined with his 33.1% CSW rate indicates that his strikeout rate is actually low. The Athletics are likely without Khris Davis and have just a .299 wOBA (24th in MLB) at home this year. The expansive ballpark should help Canning’s one weakness thus far (gophoritis). Canning is my call of the week, so he’s an easy STREAM.
Chase Anderson (SP – MIL) 11% owned, @PIT, Thursday 5/30
I’m actually slightly intrigued with Chase Anderson. His velocity is up about 1.5 MPH and he’s increased the usage of his changeup and cutter. He also hasn’t allowed a home run in his last four starts. His fourseasm fastball has improved significantly as he’s getting swings and misses 12.8% of the time and is throwing it in the zone more often. I think Anderson has a chance to go 5+ innings while netting a handful of strikeouts while limiting walks. The Pirates, despite Josh Bell’s heroics, are essentially league-average offensively over the last two weeks. As long as he can pitch around Bell, Anderson should be fine. STREAM
Lance Lynn (SP – TEX), 14% owned, home vs KC, Saturday 6/1
I know, I know, it’s Lance Lynn. But, he like many other pitchers is fading his sinker. In its place, he’s throwing a cutter which has added another mini-velocity band between his fastball and changeup. Hitters are batting just .194 against his cutter with a .506 OPS. It also gives Lynn another pitch he can throw for strikes. Speaking of which, his walk rate has dropped by nearly three percent since 2018. He’s done that without hurting his strikeout rate. That’s great! Now, the Royals. As a team, they have hit a total of 3 home runs over that last 14 days with a wOBA of just .288. I’d prefer if this game was played in the confines of Kauffman Stadium but I’m OK settling for a home start. I’m streaming here.