FreezeStats Earned Home Runs (eHR) – Complete List & Correlations

Last month I introduced a new metric, earned home runs (eHR). For the background and origin of the metric, feel free to check it out here. I’ve made a few slight adjustments to the equation after determining that pulled fly balls and park factors had a more significant impact on home runs than I originally accounted for. Based on this information, I’ve adjusted the weights for each factor accordingly in my formula A more complete list of 2019 earned home runs is shown at the bottom of this article. The purpose of this article is to determine if the eHR metric has any predictive power.

I’ve received some requests about the year-to-year correlation of eHR. Unfortunately, I’m not proficient in r, not even a little bit, so pulling data takes time for a caveman, like myself. Additionally, the properties of the ball seem to change every year during the Statcast Era which began in 2015 making it difficult to accurately determine the year-to-year correlations. With this in mind, I only went back one year to 2018 (year 1), 2019  being year 2.

After calculating the 2018 eHR, I compared 2018 earned home run per plate appearance (eHR/PA) and 2018 earned home run per fly ball (eHR/FB) to 2019 HR/PA and 2019 HR/FB. Due to the large increase in HR/FB% from year 1 to year 2, I had to adjust the baseline from year 1 to year 2. I then compared the players that appear in both samples to determine the year 1 to year 2 correlation of HR/PA and HR/FB. Now, there is one caveat. I only utilized players within my sample which is much smaller than 100% of the player pool. I did this as an attempt to eliminate small samples because barrels are a major variable in my equation. Players with either a low number of plate appearances (under 200) or low barrel totals seemed to skew the results. So, they gone. It’s not perfect, but at least it utilizes the same sample of players from year 1 (2018) to year 2 (2019). Here are the results:

Year-to-Year Metricsr-squared
2018 HR/PA-2019 HR/PA0.213
2018 eHR/PA-2019 HR/PA0.231
2018 HR/FB-2019 HR/FB0.303
2018 eHR/FB-2019 HR/FB0.342

So, what does this mean? You may be wondering why are the correlations so low. I thought the same thing because in the past HR/PA and HR/FB year-to-year correlations were typically stronger. But, remember, I used a limited sample, so this data in no way mimic’s the league as a whole. Secondly, the change in HR/FB% from 2018 to 2019 was 2.6% (12.7% to 15.3%). Between 2015 and 2018, the year-to-year difference in HR/FB% was never more than 1.4%. The stark difference in home run rate between 2018 to 2019 partially explains the weaker correlation.

OK, back to the correlations in the table above. Let’s not get carried away. It’s just one year where the eHR metric performed slightly better than using actual home runs. It’s difficult to say at this point that the eHR metric has more predictability than strictly looking at HR/PA or HR/FB but it’s a start. What it can do with more confidence is help identify outliers. Based on this information we can expect a large portion of the players identified in my original article to regress towards the mean rather than continue to be extreme outliers.  Additionally, it can help establish breakouts that don’t register by just looking at a player’s Statcast page because eHR utilized home run park factors (home), pulled fly ball rate, etc.

Year 1 to Year 2 HR/FB Predictions based on eHR

 Year 2 Correct Prediction
year 1 HR/FB over-perf55.6%
year 1 HR/FB under-perf55.7%
year 1 HR/FB over (outliers)72.0%
year 1 HR/FB under (outliers)60.0%

Let’s start with the HR/PA metric first. Just over 56% of both 2018 over and under-performers regressed toward the mean based on my eHR metric in 2019. While these results don’t scream breakthrough, it’s a decent start. Based on the year 1 data, more than half of the players performed the way the metric expected them to perform in year 2, so that’s good. Moving over the HR/FB, we see the results are a little bit better. While once again, just under 56% of the under-performers regressed toward the mean and just over 66% of the over-performers regressed the following year! That’s two-thirds fam! I’ll take that all day but I can’t explain why the stark difference. More research to follow, I just need to either learn r or find some to scrape data for me. Any takers?

As I mentioned earlier, the most important way to digest this analysis is to focus on the outliers. After adjusting for the league-wide increase in HR/FB rate from 2018 to 2019, 15 of the top 25 players under-performed outliers from 2018 improved their HR/FB rate in 2019. That’s a modest 60%. On the other end, 18 of the top 25 over-performed outliers from 2018 decreased their HR/FB rate in 2019. That’s a more optimistic 72%. The year one to year two correlations are moderate-to-weak but they are not completely useless. I plan on interpreting Alex Chamberlain’s Deserved Barrel metric in conjunction with my eHR metric to determine a more concrete list of players I feel confident about going into 2020. 

If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and your patience is appreciated. Below is the complete list of earned home runs from players in my sample. I’ve also included a Google Sheet that has the 2018 data along with 2019. Remember, for reference, the league average home run per barrel rate (HR/BRL%) in 2019 was 59.59%.

Jorge Soler7061.43%4849.381.38
Ronald Acuna Jr.6660.61%4144.443.44
Mike Trout6665.15%4551.536.53
Pete Alonso6672.73%5355.132.13
Nelson Cruz6556.92%4148.397.39
Jose Abreu6347.62%3347.0914.09
Christian Yelich5962.71%4444.940.94
Freddie Freeman5957.63%3836.97-1.03
Cody Bellinger5971.19%4746.94-0.06
Josh Donaldson6256.45%3747.3910.39
Bryce Harper5957.63%3545.9310.93
Anthony Rendon5648.21%3443.999.99
Eugenio Suarez5580.00%4948.39-0.61
Kyle Schwarber5563.64%3840.142.14
Josh Bell5360.38%3737.560.56
Nicholas Castellanos5339.62%2733.186.18
Matt Chapman5461.11%3639.993.99
J.D. Martinez5360.38%3635.90-0.10
C.J. Cron5345.28%2539.4714.47
Gary Sanchez5263.46%3443.889.88
George Springer5364.15%3939.540.54
Juan Soto5152.94%3437.303.30
Mookie Betts5238.46%2933.864.86
Matt Olson5064.00%3641.545.54
Franmil Reyes5166.67%3738.151.15
Austin Meadows5050.00%3336.433.43
Christian Walker4953.06%2933.084.08
Rafael Devers4854.17%3232.340.34
Javier Baez4856.25%2935.096.09
Michael Conforto4864.58%3336.963.96
Paul Goldschmidt4967.35%3435.011.01
Trey Mancini4862.50%3535.120.12
Marcus Semien4761.70%3332.63-0.37
Miguel Sano4768.09%3438.654.65
Marcell Ozuna4761.70%2936.407.40
Aaron Judge4852.08%2735.218.21
Ketel Marte4557.78%3234.662.66
Rougned Odor4755.32%3040.0010.00
Yoan Moncada4454.55%2531.516.51
Carlos Santana4564.44%3435.211.21
Kole Calhoun4470.45%3334.621.62
Renato Nunez4367.44%3136.155.15
Avisail Garcia4341.86%2028.078.07
Mike Moustakas4465.91%3536.031.03
Eloy Jimenez4365.12%3131.920.92
Yasmani Grandal4358.14%2832.124.12
Xander Bogaerts4360.47%3331.79-1.21
Gleyber Torres4374.42%3836.35-1.65
Max Muncy4273.81%3531.75-3.25
Yasiel Puig4151.22%2429.565.56
Charlie Blackmon4057.50%3232.440.44
Eddie Rosario4160.98%3234.232.23
Edwin Encarnacion4072.50%3434.900.90
Rhys Hoskins3951.28%2932.523.52
Nolan Arenado4072.50%4137.84-3.16
Francisco Lindor3860.53%3230.48-1.52
Luke Voit3852.63%2126.995.99
Hunter Dozier3852.63%2624.24-1.76
DJ LeMahieu3951.28%2626.710.71
Paul DeJong3868.42%3032.572.57
Max Kepler3868.42%3634.70-1.30
Kris Bryant3772.97%3126.71-4.29
Yordan Alvarez3857.89%2729.032.03
Dansby Swanson3743.24%1721.554.55
Manny Machado3767.57%3229.22-2.78
Starling Marte3762.16%2323.330.33
Randal Grichuk3666.67%3132.301.30
Eduardo Escobar3666.67%3527.83-7.17
J.T. Realmuto3748.65%2527.232.23
J.D. Davis3658.33%2225.003.00
Domingo Santana3655.56%2125.024.02
Mitch Garver3571.43%3128.28-2.72
Trevor Story3669.44%3525.80-9.20
Jorge Polanco3551.43%2223.141.14
Tommy Pham3551.43%2122.891.89
Shin-Soo Choo3560.00%2424.160.16
Ji-Man Choi3542.86%1924.485.48
Brandon Belt3528.57%1720.713.71
Ryan Braun3560.00%2225.823.82
Hunter Renfroe3580.00%3333.630.63
Nomar Mazara3545.71%1923.234.23
Joc Pederson3585.71%3631.36-4.64
Justin Smoak3458.82%2224.762.76
Rowdy Tellez3450.00%2125.554.55
Ozzie Albies3554.29%2419.52-4.48
Jose Altuve3476.47%3128.35-2.65
Daniel Vogelbach3473.53%3026.59-3.41
Ian Desmond3455.88%2024.624.62
Khris Davis3461.76%2322.37-0.63
Jackie Bradley Jr.3452.94%2121.270.27
Shohei Ohtani3452.94%1824.466.46
Joey Gallo3461.76%2227.755.75
Eric Hosmer3363.64%2221.76-0.24
Howie Kendrick3351.52%1723.186.18
Andrew Benintendi3330.30%1318.765.76
Starlin Castro3357.58%2218.56-3.44
Jorge Alfaro3253.13%1821.743.74
Jonathan Villar3271.88%2424.170.17
Teoscar Hernandez3164.52%2623.08-2.92
Justin Turner3167.74%2724.17-2.83
Willy Adames3253.13%2021.301.30
Danny Santana3174.19%2823.15-4.85
Ramon Laureano3164.52%2424.600.60
Brian Anderson3148.39%2019.64-0.36
Brandon Lowe3050.00%1722.035.03
Nick Ahmed3060.00%1916.65-2.35
Fernando Tatis Jr.3066.67%2223.791.79
Roberto Perez3063.33%2420.88-3.12
Wil Myers3053.33%1823.765.76
Willson Contreras3063.33%2421.93-2.07
Anthony Rizzo3070.00%2723.50-3.50
Jay Bruce3170.97%2624.48-1.52
Mike Yastrzemski3063.33%2118.39-2.61
Ryan McMahon2975.86%2521.33-3.67
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.2951.72%1520.875.87
Corey Seager2955.17%1917.42-1.58
Brandon Dixon2944.83%1517.982.98
Michael Brantley3056.67%2222.600.60
Keston Hiura2962.07%1919.560.56
Matt Adams2958.62%2024.984.98
Mark Canha2979.31%2623.45-2.55
Trea Turner2857.14%1919.470.47
Joey Votto2850.00%1518.773.77
David Dahl2846.43%1521.256.25
James McCann2860.71%1819.231.23
Jonathan Schoop2867.86%2322.89-0.11
Brandon Drury2846.43%1520.475.47
Evan Longoria2669.23%2013.40-6.60
Kyle Seager2661.54%2319.89-3.11
Carlos Correa2864.29%2121.420.42
Mitch Moreland2657.69%1918.18-0.82
Adam Jones2657.69%1616.310.31
Colin Moran2638.46%1316.553.55
Yandy Diaz2642.31%1418.034.03
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.2665.38%2018.99-1.01
Garrett Cooper2657.69%1515.850.85
Dexter Fowler2661.54%1916.70-2.30
Kevin Pillar2665.38%2113.21-7.79
Albert Pujols2669.23%2323.780.78
Jose Ramirez2661.54%2323.900.90
Alex Bregman2684.62%4126.61-14.39
Michael Chavis2564.00%1817.55-0.45
Scott Kingery2560.00%1918.33-0.67
Alex Gordon2544.00%1313.870.87
Todd Frazier2540.00%2124.223.22
Jason Castro2650.00%1317.874.87
Gio Urshela2572.00%2119.73-1.27
Miguel Cabrera2532.00%1210.27-1.73
Pablo Sandoval2450.00%1414.440.44
Christian Vazquez2466.67%2317.28-5.72
Bryan Reynolds2560.00%1615.93-0.07
Jason Heyward2470.83%2114.80-6.20
Eric Thames2466.67%2519.64-5.36
Whit Merrifield2445.83%169.87-6.13
Adalberto Mondesi2437.50%914.705.70
Jurickson Profar2458.33%2017.60-2.40
Harrison Bader2347.83%1215.033.03
Anthony Santander2378.26%2020.150.15
Robinson Cano2450.00%1316.013.01
Maikel Franco2369.57%1720.213.21
Austin Riley2373.91%1816.33-1.67
Freddy Galvis2360.87%2317.58-5.42
Stephen Piscotty2259.09%1311.83-1.17
JaCoby Jones2250.00%1114.883.88
Matt Carpenter2347.83%1512.45-2.55
Ryan O'Hearn2166.67%1411.81-2.19
Carson Kelly2166.67%1813.78-4.22
Nick Senzel2250.00%1216.874.87
Jeff McNeil2161.90%2318.45-4.55
Marwin Gonzalez2166.67%1514.77-0.23
Harold Ramirez2147.62%1111.570.57
Chad Pinder2152.38%1314.011.01
Cavan Biggio2166.67%1616.250.25
Jason Kipnis2166.67%1713.34-3.66
Brian Dozier2171.43%2018.98-1.02
Travis d'Arnaud2161.90%1612.69-3.31
Brandon Crawford2142.86%1112.431.43
Derek Dietrich2171.43%1919.720.72
Hunter Pence2060.00%1814.96-3.04
Asdrubal Cabrera2055.00%1815.95-2.05
Tim Anderson2060.00%1812.42-5.58
Pedro Severino2050.00%1316.063.06
Stephen Vogt2040.00%1012.522.52
Aristides Aquino2080.00%1919.580.58
Jordan Luplow2070.00%1515.720.72
Christin Stewart2040.00%1012.672.67
Robinson Chirinos2065.00%1717.860.86
Mitch Haniger2075.00%1517.172.17
Amed Rosario2152.38%1512.21-2.79
A.J. Pollock1963.16%1514.39-0.61
Enrique Hernandez1968.42%1718.841.84
Victor Robles2065.00%1715.06-1.94
Mike Zunino1947.37%914.975.97
Yuli Gurriel1984.21%3121.33-9.67
Tyler Naquin1947.37%1012.892.89
Lorenzo Cain1947.37%1111.620.62
Martin Maldonado1942.11%1215.723.72
Wilson Ramos1968.42%1413.57-0.43
Tyler Flowers1952.63%1114.073.07
Tom Murphy1957.89%1317.084.08
Tim Beckham1872.22%1514.03-0.97
Brian Goodwin1877.78%1713.59-3.41
Kevin Kiermaier1968.42%1410.76-3.24
Chris Davis1855.56%1213.881.88
Jesus Aguilar1861.11%1210.68-1.32
Niko Goodrum1844.44%1211.24-0.76
Omar Narvaez1888.89%2212.74-9.26
Adam Eaton1861.11%158.43-6.57
Jose Martinez1850.00%1010.640.64
David Freese1855.56%1111.940.94
Elvis Andrus1844.44%128.82-3.18
Byron Buxton1752.94%1015.755.75
Alex Verdugo1747.06%1211.45-0.55
Orlando Arcia1855.56%1514.04-0.96
Danny Jansen1675.00%1314.501.50
Justin Upton1770.59%1213.571.57
Didi Gregorius1668.75%1614.34-1.66
Buster Posey1643.75%75.37-1.63
Brett Gardner1687.50%2817.58-10.42
Ian Happ1471.43%118.86-2.14
Tommy La Stella14100.00%169.73-6.27
Josh Reddick1560.00%148.66-5.34
Aaron Hicks1566.67%1213.881.88
Oscar Mercado1553.33%159.42-5.58
Bo Bichette1376.92%119.53-1.47
Willie Calhoun1687.50%2118.64-2.36
Jesse Winker1478.57%169.12-6.88
Chris Taylor1560.00%129.39-2.61
Mike Tauchman1283.33%138.71-4.29
Ronny Rodriguez1573.33%1412.57-1.43
Alex Dickerson1241.67%66.520.52
Matt Beaty1172.73%98.47-0.53
Maunel Margot1154.55%129.48-2.52
Nate Lowe1154.55%76.59-0.41

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