The 2019 regular season isn’t over yet, but here I am starting to formulate rankings for 2020. Several fantasy sites are already running mock drafts for 2020 and the #2EarlyMocks are in full swing. I’ve been fortunate enough to be involved in the mocks for the second straight season. I ended up with the last pick in the draft, number 15 overall. It ended up working out because I grabbed Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner at the wheel. You’ll see below that I have both players a little bit higher, so I was happy to snag one of the most consistent hitters in the game along with a ton of stolen bases. Both players hit for a high average and I think speed and batting average are the most difficult categories to solidify especially going into 2020. OK, enough rambling, here is my list.

Early 2020 Rankings - Top 25 Players

Unfortunately, we lost Christian Yelich to a broken kneecap just the other night. Yikes, that’s brutal for the Brewers and fantasy owners. Now, I have the asterisk next to Yelich because we don’t know how he will recover from the injury. If he is recovered and 100% before Spring Training, he’s my top dog.  The difference between Yelich and Mike Trout is stolen bases. It’s becoming more obvious that Trout won’t be running as much with just 11 on the season. That’s the same number as Cody Bellinger and one fewer than Juan Soto. It’s now been two seasons where Yelich has provided elite level fantasy production. It’s real and he’s still 27 years old. When debating Yelich and Trout, I looked at batting average and counting stats. Those should be similar but I’ll take 15 additional stolen bases from Yelich rather than 5-10 homers from Trout. Ronald Acuna over Trout also comes down stolen bases and ceiling. If I’m feeling conservative, I’m taking Trout but I think Acuna could honesty hit 50 homers and steal 40 bases at some point in the near future. He does strikeout nearly 26% of the time, so his batting average could fall into the .270 range but he’s a lock for 35 homers and 25-30 steals.

There’s a gap between the top three and the next tier. I would love to have the third overall pick next year and grab whichever stud falls to me. Next on the list, I have Mookie Betts and here’s why. Betts was unlucky in the first half and here’s what he’s done in the second half .318/.385/.615 with 15 homers, 4 steals, and 52 runs in 55 games. Meanwhile, Cody Bellinger has fallen off in the second half. I trust Mookie more than I trust Bellinger. Mookie’s average season since the start of 2016 looks like this .304-120-29-93-24. He’s not running as much but he’ll be 27 next year and I believe he still has a couple more 20-25 stolen base seasons in him. Bellinger is awesome, no doubt. He’s going to hit 40 homers and steal 10 bases next year but he’s not quite a .300 hitter. I’d rather have Betts with his batting average floor (but also upside) and speed.

Francisco Lindor is also in the Betts/Bellinger tier. He’s already hit 31 homers and stolen 21 bases in just 127 games this year. Remember the calf issue that forced him to miss the first three weeks? Yeah, that happened. I’m locking him in for 35 homers and 25 steals but the Indians aren’t as deep as the Dodgers and Red Sox which is why he’s sixth. His counting stats probably won’t match Betts or Bellinger’s. My first pitcher is Gerritt Cole. He has a 39.3% K-BB% in the second half. That’s insane! If that was ONLY his strikeout rate, it would rank second behind teammate Justin Verlander. Back in June, I ranked Cole second among starting pitchers the rest of the way and I was actually too low. At the time of the rankings, he had a 6-5 record with a 3.67 ERA. His skills were so off the charts, I knew he’d dominate from that point forward. Since then, he has a 1.83 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 93.2 IP.

The next trio includes Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, and Juan Soto. We have two seasons in a row where Story has hit at least .290 with over 30 homers and 20 steals. He’s only going to be 26 next year. If I’m drafting in the first-round, I want to combine power and speed with batting average. That’s what I’m here for and you won’t find it later in the draft. I predicted Freddie Freeman would win the MVP in 2018, well I was wrong. however, my projection of .350-40-130 isn’t that far off of where he’s going to end up this season. He won’t end up in the top 5 for the NL MVP. That’s how nuts this year is. Freeman hits .300 just about every year and should maintain 30+ homers with over 100 runs and RBI and chip in 5-8 steals. Who knew Juan Soto was going to run? He has 12 steals this year and while I won’t project him for that many next year, the fact that he can net 8-10 next year jumps him over the likes of Bregman and Arenado. This kid is the next Miguel Cabrera with a little more speed. Would I be surprised if he hits .320 with 40 homers next year? Nope, he’s a beast and will only be 21 next year!

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander round out my top 12. Both are aging studs and have shown no signs of slowing down. I will be monitoring Scherzer due to his back issue in the second half but if he finishes the season strong, I won’t be concerned. Both pitchers have shown elite skills and there’s nothing wrong with their velocity. Per the Athletic, Verlander has been unlucky in terms of home run allowed, so I’d expect that to come down next year. His defense also helps him out as they are number one in terms of runs saves this year. The good news, he will have the same defense behind him next year. Scherzer’s team isn’t too bad either and he should have no problem piling up wins in 2020. The skills between Verlander and Scherzer are very similar but I’ll lean Scherzer because he’s two years younger.

Nolan Arenado isn’t in the top 12 because he doesn’t run. He’s a lock to hit .300+ with 35-40 homers and 110 RBI. That’s awesome, that’s great, that’s bankable, but I can’t spend a first round pick on him. Trea Turner is 14th for me because of his speed. He’s not a zero in power either. He’s a 15-18 homer hitter but can also hit .300 and steal 45+ bases. His ceiling is higher than that and his floor is safe even if he only plays 130 games. In 2019, he’s the 11th most valuable hitter on a per-game basis per the Razzball Player Rater.

Jacob deGrom might be downgraded because 2019 is his second straight season where his win total is low. Of course, that’s 100% no his fault. His luck has to change. The Mets should be better next year (we hope) and even with neutral luck deGrom should compile 15+ wins next year. OK, I hate talking about wins. deGrom is number one in MLB with a 2.16 ERA and it’s not close (Verlander is second a 2.52) and ranks fourth in strikeouts. If that’s not a top-four SP, I don’t know what is. Alex Bregman has the best approach and plate discipline in the league. Not Trout, not Votto, it’s Bregman. He’s somehow improved on his OBP, SLG, and O-Swing this year. He’s fantastic but the quality of contact isn’t there. His barrel rate decreased and he’s hitting more popups this year. Pulling the ball is how he can mash 35 homers, so his margins are razor-thin. He’s also not running anymore. He’s surrounded by the best lineup in baseball so, 100 runs and 100 RBI is bankable but where are you drafting a .290-30-5 player? Walker Buehler might be the best pitcher in baseball next year. I’m not letting that slip past 17 overall or the fifth pitcher off the board. He’s the next Justin Verlander, book it!

Floor and ceiling define these next five guys. This is a huge discount on Jose Ramirez if this is where he’s drafted. He’s not going to hit .300 but he’s capable of lofty batting average if he modifies his approach. He is a lock for 25 homers and 25-30 steals given 600+ plate appearances. That’s extremely valuable and I might be moving him up in my rankings as I finalize them this offseason. I love Anthony Rendon and we finally got to witness his ceiling this year. I am not expecting a repeat but is there much of a difference between Rendon and Bregman? Maybe three to four steals? J.D. Martinez is still a monster. He was unlucky with his power last year. He should have hit 40+ bombs. I’ll pencil him in for .300-35-110 with upside for .320-45-125. The reason he’s this low is the lack of speed. A few of the players ahead of him such as Bregman or even Rendon could steal 5-10 bags, not J.D. Here’s where we get sexy! Fernando Tatis Jr. On a per-game basis, he was one of the most valuable players this year. In fact, he was second to Christian Yelich among qualified hitters one spot ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Look, he won’t post a .400+ BABIP in 2020 but should provide a decent .270 average with 25+ homers and 35+ steals. Yes, please!

If we get a healthy Aaron Judge season, he’s going to hit 50 homers. His quality of contact is so great that he should provide a solid .275-.280 average. His elevated walk rates should keep him high in the batting order netting a ton of runs and RBI. I can’t drop him any lower than this despite the injuries. Javy Baez is lost for the season and many pundits were labeling him a bust coming into the season, yours truly included. In reality, he was anything but a bust. He’s not the batting average risk people peg him for, his BABIP the last three seasons are .345, .347, and .345. He didn’t run as much but should be bankable for .280-30-100 with 15 steals. Xander Bogaerts is a star friends. I ranked him inside the top 30 in the preseason and labeled him a massive bargain. I own him almost everywhere and he’s going to finish inside the top 15 overall. I got him as late as 50-55 overall in some drafts! Anyways, he stopped running which is a negative and that’s why he’s ranked in a similar spot. Still amazing and the 30 homers isn’t a fluke. Chris Sale is either going to win owners their leagues or once again crush their dreams. He was unlucky this year, flat out. His skills are up with the top tier but health and velocity are scaring people away. At 25 overall, there’s room for profit but also a little built-in risk.

So, I included several additional players on the list above. This is far from my “set in stone” rankings list for 2020, so  a lot can change. Of this group, I would expect Mike Clevinger, Adalberto Mondesi, and Jose Altuve as the players most likely to make the jump into the top 25 in the coming months. You’re comments and questions are always welcome and I hope you enjoyed this kick-start for 2020.

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Welcome back to the FreezeStats fantasy baseball blog! The All-Star break has come and gone and teams are looking to make their moves for their respective championships. Now is not the time to get lazy and start coasting. If you’re in first, you still need to get better! If you’re mathematically out of it, you need to work even harder to get back in. This rakings update will likely be my last for this season. Once we hit August, most leagues are past their trade deadlines. You’ll need to ride the hot hand because, in September, you won’t have time to wait for a player’s production to catch up with his skills. Right now though, there’s still time to find value whether it’s in a trade or in free agency.

Keep in mind, I’ll be ranking these players based on Standard 5×5 Roto scoring. It’s also important to note that what a player has done previously doesn’t matter in terms of their statistics to date. We are starting from ground zero. Well, of course, it matters but in terms of where I have players ranked in this update, it doesn’t. These are the items I look at when performing these mid-season rankings. All of which have value but are weighted differently

• Rest of Season Projections: All systems but especially THE BAT
• Proposed Playing time going forward
• Trades: Not only players who may be on the move but also how the players not involved in the trades are impacted
• Skills: look at a player’s metrics including pitch mix, velocity, plate discipline, quality of contact, approach changes, etc
• Proposed playing time, innings limits, etc

OK, enough chatter, let’s get to it. Below you can sort by overall ranks, hitter/pitcher ranks, or position ranks. Note: The +/- vs ECR is against Expert Consensus Rankings, not my previous rankings.

Catchers – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

First Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Second Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Third Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Shortstop Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Outfielders – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Starting Pitchers – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

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Alright folks, this is it! My last positional ranking post for 2019! The only thing left to do is to publish my top 300 rankings followed by my projections. If you want to see my positional rankings table, here it is! Back to pitching. The landscape surrounding pitching is changing. The number of pitchers who reached to 200 inning plateau has declined in four of the last five seasons. Here are the number of pitchers to reach 200 IP since 2014:  34, 28, 15, 15, 13.  In my personal projections, I’ve got only three pitchers with over 200 innings pitched this year. Yes, you heard that right. That might be a little conservative, but not that many pitchers average 6.5 innings per start or more. That being said, I have seven pitchers projected between 195 IP and 199.2 IP. I believe they all have a great shot at reaching 200 innings. Then again, there will always be someone like James Shields to reach to the 200 inning plateau that you would not expect (he threw 204 innings last year). I promise you, this is the last you will hear of James Shields in this post. Here we go!

Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2019

Tier 1: No surprises here. There’s one statistic for a pitcher that I believe trumps all others. That’s K-BB%. These fellas were all in the top 4 last year in that statistic, with the other being Verlander. I flip-flopped Sale and deGrom but they are so close. Sale has the most insane metrics but has either worn down at the end of the season or missed time to injury the previous two years. Otherwise, he’d be number one but I have him projected for about 180 innings. Based on Standard Gain Points and my projections, 180 innings of elite-Sale is more valuable than 210 innings of deGrom.

Tier 2: The only reason Verlander is not in tier 1 is because of his age. He just turned 36 and as much of workhorse Verlander has been in his career, his age just concerns me a teeny bit. I love Bauer as I think he’s taken the step into superstardom. The difference between Bauer and Cole is razor thin but I’m going to lean towards the more cerebral pitcher in Bauer. Three Indians in the top nine is pretty interesting but I could not drop Carrasco any lower after digging in. Carrasco was eighth in the league in K-BB% last year and was unlucky in terms of BABIP at .315. His skills took a leap forward last year and now has 180+ innings in three of the last four seasons. I’ll touch on Buehler. He’s the real deal. He could be in the top five as early as next year. His elite fastball is an extremely strong foundation and I see a little Verlander in him. Like, a shorter version of Verlander without the insanely hot wife.

Tier 3: Maybe Corbin regresses a little after his massive breakout in 2018 but then again, his peripherals point to the opposite. His slider is arguably the best in the game and with the addition of his slow-slider, he’s rocking those breaking balls at a 50% clip. Moving to Washington with potentially a better ball club should provide help in terms of his win total, and I don’t see the strikeouts going away. This tier is filled with veterans who are either on the decline or struggle to stay healthy for a full season. It’s also filled with some newcomers whose skills could push them into tier 2 by the end of the season. My favorites in this group include Clevinger, Marquez, Wheeler, Taillon, and Berrios. I’m not as high on Flaherty as some other analysts because of his 9.6% walk rate. He also struggled with the home run ball a bit in 2018. The reason he maintained such solid ratios was his elevated strand rate. I think there is some regression with his ratios and project a slight decrease in strikeout rate. I still like him, but there will be people in the draft room who like him more than I do.

Tier 4: speaking if regression, Folty is due for quite a bit of it and not in a good way. His breakout was fantastic, but there are warning signs everywhere. His swinging strike rate was relatively low compared to his 27%+ strikeout rate. He still struggles with walks and was fortunate to keep his BABIP near .250. Maybe he can keep up a 27% K rate with a league aver SwStr rate, I don’t know? That being said, Atlanta provides a nice floor for Folty and he still possesses high-end skills which is why he remains in my top 30. Yes, that’s Madison Bumgarner down at 33. His fastball has been a train wreck, er, ah dirt bike wreck since 2017. His ratios have been saved by the confines of AT&T Park but now on the last year of his deal the and Giants in rebuild-mode, Bumgarner could be moved before the All-Star Break. Going almost anywhere else will hurt his ratios and his value. Even if he stays, his strikeout rate has gone the way of the Dodo. I didn’t think I was completely in on Pivetta but there he is at 35. There’s too much to like with Pivetta. Remember that K-BB% I was talking about? Pivetta was 16th in the league last year one spot behind teammate Aaron Nola. If Pivetta can suppress BABIP a little bit and increase his strand rate, he’s a top 25 SP.

Tier 5: This is my favorite tier! I absolutely love Heaney and Bieber this year! Bieber had a near-20% K-BB% but a crazy-high BABIP and low LOB% killed his ratios. I expect some moderate regression there (the positive kind). I just hope he doesn’t fall into the Michael Pineda mold where he throws too many strikes and gives in to hitters too often. Here’s my Heany take, I did a deep dive on him and really like what I saw. I would love to grab two aces in the first three rounds and just wait on pitching until much later grabbing Heaney and Bieber back-to-back around picks 130-140. To be honest, I will end up with at least three pitchers from this tier. The best part about this tier is many of these guys are going well after pick 200 in drafts, so you won’t have to reach. The more I look at the pitchers I have ranked 35 (Pivetta) through Skaggs (Tier 6), the more I want to wait on pitching. As I just mentioned , I still want two aces as a strong foundation but feel that there is a ton of value after pick 150 for starting pitching. Josh James and Joe Musgrove are a couple guys I already own in dynasty leagues. James has an extremely high strikeout upside while Musgrove has a chance to put it together this year and finish inside the top 30 for SPs. The Dodgers have a ton of talented pitchers and all of them would be higher if they were guaranteed 175+ innings. I’ll pick and choose, I like Maeda and Ryu (see next tier).

Tier 6: As it turns out I like this tier as well. There’s quite a bit more risk here but it’s a nice combination of upside and floor picks. 59-61 includes three very talented starting pitchers with a lot of questions. Obviously, Whitley and Luzardo are rookies, so there’s a ton of risk there. However, other than maybe Alex Reyes, no other rookie starters have the upside of these two. Nelson missed all of 2018, so how will he respond? I’m cautiously optimistic, but won’t be picking him inside of the top 200. After that, he’s a solid pick.

TIer 7: Earlier this offseason I had buried Joey Lucchesi because of his two-pitch arsenal. However, thanks to Jason Collete’s 2019 Pitch Tracker, I found out he’s adding a cutter to his repertoire! This is more exciting than it sounds. His fastball is not great and his change/curve (churve?) is actually a pretty solid pitch. If he can supplement his fastball with a cutter that he can throw for strikes, that’s a boon to his value. The cutter would move in the opposite direction of the fastball which would play nicely off one another. Anyways, I expect Fulmer to bounce back a bit this year, he still has very good velocity and a solid slider to pair with his four-seamer. Of this entire group, I actually like Matz the best. He doesn’t have a standout pitch but throws four pitches with relative effectiveness. Sometimes four decent pitches are better than two great pitches. He feels like he could be on the verge of a breakout as his strikeout rate jumped to 27% in the second half last year.

Tier 8: This is a big tier, huh? Mike Soroka was shut down for discomfort in his shoulder, so I dropped him to the bottom of this tier. He might end up off the list depending on what happens during spring training. Keep an eye out for any updates on Soroka going forward. I really can’t give up on Bundy. I know he gave up over 40 homers last year but he has two elite level pitches in his slider and changeup. He just needs to throw his fastball less often and possibly get out of Baltimore. I’ve always been a sucker for Velasquez, he threw a career-high 143 innings last year and managed a 25%+ K rate. If you’re surprised to see Derek Holland here, don’t be. He’s back in San Francisco where even Madison Bumgarner can put up solid ratios. That was shot at Bum, you guys. A Bum shot. OK, back at it. Trevor Richards has an insane changeup but that’s it. He’s like the super poor man’s Luis Castillo. He’s got a piece but needs something else. Urias and McHugh are much too talented for this tier but when you play for a team with eight starting pitchers, it’s difficult to lof 150+ innings. Besides, Urias is coming off a devastating injury and the Dodgers have already come out saying his innings will be monitored.

Tier 9: I prefer Woodruff over Corbin Burnes for this year. Woodruff has 85 MLB innings under his belt and has already taken his lumps so to speak. Maybe he’s not the 26% K rate guy we saw last year because as a starter, those numbers won’t translate. I still think he can maintain solid ratios while limiting home runs thanks to an elevated ground ball rate. I like Luke Weaver as a bit of a bounceback in 2019 because his skills remain intact. While he outperformed his strikeout rate in 2017, he still has upside. Urena, Wacha, and Duffy are like super boring. That’s OK when you’re this deep. Sometimes stability is exactly what you need after you’ve taken risks on the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Jesus Luzardo. Oh, then there’s Marcus Stroman. I won’t be drafting him as long as he stays in Toronto with that extremely fast turf and poor infield defense. Get him on some real grass with a few legitimate defenders on the infield to put his ground balls to use and I might be back in.

Tier 10: Touki and Kingham are my favorites of this tier. Is that why they are at the top of the tier, Max? Why, yes it is! Anyways, there are questions as to whether or not both will be in their respective rotations because Atlanta has 12 pitching prospects, all of which are close to the majors. Kingham on the other hand just did not perform well last year. They both have the skills to get strikeouts and the potential to be either a #3 or 4 as early as this year. They just need the opportunity. I might actually move Touki up if Soroka will not be ready for opening day. Same goes for Gohara. I like Cahill, his changeup is gross, but in a good way. The problem is that you’re only going to get about 100 innings out of him. Yarbrough is not getting 16 wins this year, I can tell you that but coming into the game in the 2nd inning has its advantages. I don’t trust Chase Anderson even though he’s outperformed his peripherals for the second straight season. I do not want to be the one holding the bag when the bottom drops out.

Tier 11: This tier is for your 15-team and deeper leagues. It’s pretty ugly down here. I’ve only thrown Manaea in here because he’s “reportedly” ahead of schedule. Originally, it was thought he may miss all of 2019 following shoulder surgery. Reports are now saying it’s possible he returns after the All-Star break. This is like Jimmy Nelson last year but with a later timeline. If the Athletics contend, he could see bullpen action in August and possibly a few starts in September. He’s probably not worth a stash, but we are pretty low in the rankings. The few pitchers I’d take a flier on include Jhoulys Chacin, Jamie Barria, Ryan Borucki, Domingo German, and Corbin Burnes. Chacin has a hell of a slider and with its increased usage, it could carry him throughout stretches of the season. The Triple-Bs and German are young upsidey arms without guaranteed starting roles. Barria has the most experience of the group and he does have a bit of strikeout upside despite what his numbers say.

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Top 300 - Fantasy Baseball 2019

There you have it! I know, it’s 302 players, I can’t count. Thanks for checking out the rankings. I will have the projections out in the next couple of days.

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Image Credits: MATTHEW J. LEE/GLOBE STAFF