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Early 2020 Rankings Fantasy Baseball – Top 25

The 2019 regular season isn’t over yet, but here I am starting to formulate rankings for 2020. Several fantasy sites are already running mock drafts for 2020 and the #2EarlyMocks are in full swing. I’ve been fortunate enough to be involved in the mocks for the second straight season. I ended up with the last pick in the draft, number 15 overall. It ended up working out because I grabbed Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner at the wheel. You’ll see below that I have both players a little bit higher, so I was happy to snag one of the most consistent hitters in the game along with a ton of stolen bases. Both players hit for a high average and I think speed and batting average are the most difficult categories to solidify especially going into 2020. OK, enough rambling, here is my list.


Early 2020 Rankings - Top 25 Players

RankPlayerPosition
1Chrsitian Yelich*OF
2Ronald AcunaOF
3Mike TroutOF
4Mookie BettsOF
5Cody Bellinger1B/OF
6Francisco LindorSS
7Gerritt ColeSP
8Trevor StorySS
9Freedie Freeman1B
10Juan SotoOF
11Max ScherzerSP
12Justin VerlanderSP
13Nolan Arenado3B
14Trea TurnerSS
15Jacob deGromSP
16Alex BregmanSS/3B
17Walker BuehlerSP
18Jose Ramierz2B/3B
19Anthony Rendon3B
20J.D. MartinezOF
21Fernando Tatis Jr.SS
22Aaron JudgeOF
23Javier Baez2B/SS
24Xander BogaertsSS
25Chris SaleSP
Next up -ConsideredOptions
Rafael Devers3B
Adalberto MondesiSS
Blake SnellSP
Jose Altuve2B
Ketel Marte2B/OF
Shane BieberSP
Mike ClevingerSP
Yordan AlvarezOF/DH
George SpringerOF
Jack FlahertySP
Clayton KershawSP

Unfortunately, we lost Christian Yelich to a broken kneecap just the other night. Yikes, that’s brutal for the Brewers and fantasy owners. Now, I have the asterisk next to Yelich because we don’t know how he will recover from the injury. If he is recovered and 100% before Spring Training, he’s my top dog.  The difference between Yelich and Mike Trout is stolen bases. It’s becoming more obvious that Trout won’t be running as much with just 11 on the season. That’s the same number as Cody Bellinger and one fewer than Juan Soto. It’s now been two seasons where Yelich has provided elite level fantasy production. It’s real and he’s still 27 years old. When debating Yelich and Trout, I looked at batting average and counting stats. Those should be similar but I’ll take 15 additional stolen bases from Yelich rather than 5-10 homers from Trout. Ronald Acuna over Trout also comes down stolen bases and ceiling. If I’m feeling conservative, I’m taking Trout but I think Acuna could honesty hit 50 homers and steal 40 bases at some point in the near future. He does strikeout nearly 26% of the time, so his batting average could fall into the .270 range but he’s a lock for 35 homers and 25-30 steals.

There’s a gap between the top three and the next tier. I would love to have the third overall pick next year and grab whichever stud falls to me. Next on the list, I have Mookie Betts and here’s why. Betts was unlucky in the first half and here’s what he’s done in the second half .318/.385/.615 with 15 homers, 4 steals, and 52 runs in 55 games. Meanwhile, Cody Bellinger has fallen off in the second half. I trust Mookie more than I trust Bellinger. Mookie’s average season since the start of 2016 looks like this .304-120-29-93-24. He’s not running as much but he’ll be 27 next year and I believe he still has a couple more 20-25 stolen base seasons in him. Bellinger is awesome, no doubt. He’s going to hit 40 homers and steal 10 bases next year but he’s not quite a .300 hitter. I’d rather have Betts with his batting average floor (but also upside) and speed.


Francisco Lindor is also in the Betts/Bellinger tier. He’s already hit 31 homers and stolen 21 bases in just 127 games this year. Remember the calf issue that forced him to miss the first three weeks? Yeah, that happened. I’m locking him in for 35 homers and 25 steals but the Indians aren’t as deep as the Dodgers and Red Sox which is why he’s sixth. His counting stats probably won’t match Betts or Bellinger’s. My first pitcher is Gerritt Cole. He has a 39.3% K-BB% in the second half. That’s insane! If that was ONLY his strikeout rate, it would rank second behind teammate Justin Verlander. Back in June, I ranked Cole second among starting pitchers the rest of the way and I was actually too low. At the time of the rankings, he had a 6-5 record with a 3.67 ERA. His skills were so off the charts, I knew he’d dominate from that point forward. Since then, he has a 1.83 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 93.2 IP.

The next trio includes Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, and Juan Soto. We have two seasons in a row where Story has hit at least .290 with over 30 homers and 20 steals. He’s only going to be 26 next year. If I’m drafting in the first-round, I want to combine power and speed with batting average. That’s what I’m here for and you won’t find it later in the draft. I predicted Freddie Freeman would win the MVP in 2018, well I was wrong. however, my projection of .350-40-130 isn’t that far off of where he’s going to end up this season. He won’t end up in the top 5 for the NL MVP. That’s how nuts this year is. Freeman hits .300 just about every year and should maintain 30+ homers with over 100 runs and RBI and chip in 5-8 steals. Who knew Juan Soto was going to run? He has 12 steals this year and while I won’t project him for that many next year, the fact that he can net 8-10 next year jumps him over the likes of Bregman and Arenado. This kid is the next Miguel Cabrera with a little more speed. Would I be surprised if he hits .320 with 40 homers next year? Nope, he’s a beast and will only be 21 next year!

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander round out my top 12. Both are aging studs and have shown no signs of slowing down. I will be monitoring Scherzer due to his back issue in the second half but if he finishes the season strong, I won’t be concerned. Both pitchers have shown elite skills and there’s nothing wrong with their velocity. Per the Athletic, Verlander has been unlucky in terms of home run allowed, so I’d expect that to come down next year. His defense also helps him out as they are number one in terms of runs saves this year. The good news, he will have the same defense behind him next year. Scherzer’s team isn’t too bad either and he should have no problem piling up wins in 2020. The skills between Verlander and Scherzer are very similar but I’ll lean Scherzer because he’s two years younger.



Nolan Arenado isn’t in the top 12 because he doesn’t run. He’s a lock to hit .300+ with 35-40 homers and 110 RBI. That’s awesome, that’s great, that’s bankable, but I can’t spend a first round pick on him. Trea Turner is 14th for me because of his speed. He’s not a zero in power either. He’s a 15-18 homer hitter but can also hit .300 and steal 45+ bases. His ceiling is higher than that and his floor is safe even if he only plays 130 games. In 2019, he’s the 11th most valuable hitter on a per-game basis per the Razzball Player Rater.

Jacob deGrom might be downgraded because 2019 is his second straight season where his win total is low. Of course, that’s 100% no his fault. His luck has to change. The Mets should be better next year (we hope) and even with neutral luck deGrom should compile 15+ wins next year. OK, I hate talking about wins. deGrom is number one in MLB with a 2.16 ERA and it’s not close (Verlander is second a 2.52) and ranks fourth in strikeouts. If that’s not a top-four SP, I don’t know what is. Alex Bregman has the best approach and plate discipline in the league. Not Trout, not Votto, it’s Bregman. He’s somehow improved on his OBP, SLG, and O-Swing this year. He’s fantastic but the quality of contact isn’t there. His barrel rate decreased and he’s hitting more popups this year. Pulling the ball is how he can mash 35 homers, so his margins are razor-thin. He’s also not running anymore. He’s surrounded by the best lineup in baseball so, 100 runs and 100 RBI is bankable but where are you drafting a .290-30-5 player? Walker Buehler might be the best pitcher in baseball next year. I’m not letting that slip past 17 overall or the fifth pitcher off the board. He’s the next Justin Verlander, book it!

Floor and ceiling define these next five guys. This is a huge discount on Jose Ramirez if this is where he’s drafted. He’s not going to hit .300 but he’s capable of lofty batting average if he modifies his approach. He is a lock for 25 homers and 25-30 steals given 600+ plate appearances. That’s extremely valuable and I might be moving him up in my rankings as I finalize them this offseason. I love Anthony Rendon and we finally got to witness his ceiling this year. I am not expecting a repeat but is there much of a difference between Rendon and Bregman? Maybe three to four steals? J.D. Martinez is still a monster. He was unlucky with his power last year. He should have hit 40+ bombs. I’ll pencil him in for .300-35-110 with upside for .320-45-125. The reason he’s this low is the lack of speed. A few of the players ahead of him such as Bregman or even Rendon could steal 5-10 bags, not J.D. Here’s where we get sexy! Fernando Tatis Jr. On a per-game basis, he was one of the most valuable players this year. In fact, he was second to Christian Yelich among qualified hitters one spot ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Look, he won’t post a .400+ BABIP in 2020 but should provide a decent .270 average with 25+ homers and 35+ steals. Yes, please!


If we get a healthy Aaron Judge season, he’s going to hit 50 homers. His quality of contact is so great that he should provide a solid .275-.280 average. His elevated walk rates should keep him high in the batting order netting a ton of runs and RBI. I can’t drop him any lower than this despite the injuries. Javy Baez is lost for the season and many pundits were labeling him a bust coming into the season, yours truly included. In reality, he was anything but a bust. He’s not the batting average risk people peg him for, his BABIP the last three seasons are .345, .347, and .345. He didn’t run as much but should be bankable for .280-30-100 with 15 steals. Xander Bogaerts is a star friends. I ranked him inside the top 30 in the preseason and labeled him a massive bargain. I own him almost everywhere and he’s going to finish inside the top 15 overall. I got him as late as 50-55 overall in some drafts! Anyways, he stopped running which is a negative and that’s why he’s ranked in a similar spot. Still amazing and the 30 homers isn’t a fluke. Chris Sale is either going to win owners their leagues or once again crush their dreams. He was unlucky this year, flat out. His skills are up with the top tier but health and velocity are scaring people away. At 25 overall, there’s room for profit but also a little built-in risk.

So, I included several additional players on the list above. This is far from my “set in stone” rankings list for 2020, so  a lot can change. Of this group, I would expect Mike Clevinger, Adalberto Mondesi, and Jose Altuve as the players most likely to make the jump into the top 25 in the coming months. You’re comments and questions are always welcome and I hope you enjoyed this kick-start for 2020.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Photo Credit: Milwaukee Brewers Facebook

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Fantasy Baseball Rest of Season Rankings Update – July

Welcome back to the FreezeStats fantasy baseball blog! The All-Star break has come and gone and teams are looking to make their moves for their respective championships. Now is not the time to get lazy and start coasting. If you’re in first, you still need to get better! If you’re mathematically out of it, you need to work even harder to get back in. This rakings update will likely be my last for this season. Once we hit August, most leagues are past their trade deadlines. You’ll need to ride the hot hand because, in September, you won’t have time to wait for a player’s production to catch up with his skills. Right now though, there’s still time to find value whether it’s in a trade or in free agency.


Keep in mind, I’ll be ranking these players based on Standard 5×5 Roto scoring. It’s also important to note that what a player has done previously doesn’t matter in terms of their statistics to date. We are starting from ground zero. Well, of course, it matters but in terms of where I have players ranked in this update, it doesn’t. These are the items I look at when performing these mid-season rankings. All of which have value but are weighted differently

  • Rest of Season Projections: All systems but especially THE BAT
  • Proposed Playing time going forward
  • Trades: Not only players who may be on the move but also how the players not involved in the trades are impacted
  • Skills: look at a player’s metrics including pitch mix, velocity, plate discipline, quality of contact, approach changes, etc
  • Proposed playing time, innings limits, etc

OK, enough chatter, let’s get to it. Below you can sort by overall ranks, hitter/pitcher ranks, or position ranks. Note: The +/- vs ECR is against Expert Consensus Rankings, not my previous rankings.



Catchers – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
8. Roberto Perez (CLE) +44
19. Travis d’Arnaud (TB) +31
7. Christian Vazquez (BOS) +23
22. Chance Sisco (BAL) +22
32. Pedro Severino (BAL) +22
17. Brian McCann (ATL) +15
38. Victor Caratini (CHC) +15
13. Carson Kelly (ARI) +10
Top Fallers
43. Francisco Cervelli (PIT) -27
44. Tucker Barnhart (CIN) -27
45. Nick Hundley (OAK) -11
16. Yadier Molina (STL) -10
21. Mike Zunino (TB) -9
23. Jonathan Lucroy (LAA) -9
24. Willians Astudillo (MIN) -9
20. Tyler Flowers (ATL) -7

First Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
25. Ian Desmond (COL) +23
24. Nate Lowe (TB) +21
46. Colin Moran (PIT) +17
47. Ronald Guzman (TEX) +16
19. Eric Hosmer (SD) +14
50. Brandon Dixon (DET) +13
28. Yuli Gurriel (HOU) +12
43. Mitch Moreland (BOS) +10
Top Fallers
56. Travis Shaw (MIL) -27
59. Yonder Alonso (COL) -20
31. Matt Carpenter (STL) -15
38. Derek Dietrich (CIN) -12
37. Jay Bruce (PHI) -10
44. Kike Hernandez (LAD) -8
17. J.T. Realmuto (PHI) -7
18. Luke Voit (NYY) -7

Second Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
13. Nick Senzel (CIN) +42
16. Cavan Biggio (TOR) +30
25. Franklin Barreto (OAK) +30
15. Keston Hiura (MIL) +19
32. Jason Kipnis (CLE) +19
36. Eric Sogard (TOR) +19
26. Chris Taylor (LAD) +17
19. Scooter Gennett (CIN) +16
Top Fallers
51. Adalberto Mondesi (KC) -48
53. Travis Shaw (MIL) -32
38. Tommy La Stella (LAA) -14
29. Rougned Odor (TEX) -13
21. Matt Carpenter (STL) -10
35. Niko Goodrum (DET) -10
23. Cesar Hernandez (PHI) -9
28. Dee Gordon (SEA) -9



Third Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
40. J.D. Davis (NYM) +15
23. Yuli Gurriel (HOU) +12
31. Colin Moran (PIT) +12
11. Josh Donaldson (ATL) +11
44. Todd Frazier (NYM) +11
21. Scott Kingery (PHI) +10
45. Jake Lamb (ARI) +10
32. Brian Anderson (MIA) +9
Top Fallers
52. Travis Shaw (MIL) -28
27. Wil Myers (SD) -10
24. Matt Carpenter (STL) -9
15. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) -7
34. Tommy La Stella (LAA) -7
20. Austin Riley (ATL) -6
53. Jeimer Candelario (DET) -5
54. Jed Lowrie (NYM) -5

Shortstop Baseman – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
29. Eric Sogard (TOR) +19
27. Chris Taylor (LAD) +17
28. Bo Bichette (TOR) +17
36. Kevin Newman (PIT) +12
8. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) +9
20. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) +9
22. Scott Kingery (PHI) +9
33. Gio Urshela (NYY) +8
Top Fallers
40. Adalberto Mondesi (KC) -34
37. Jose Peraza (CIN) -10
32. Asdrubal Cabrera (TEX) -7
38. Orlando Arcia (MIL) -6
41. Freddy Galvis (TOR) -6
44. Willy Adames (TB) -6
45. Tim Beckham (SEA) -6
24. Paul DeJong (STL) -5

Outfielders – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
36. Nick Senzel (CIN) +97
45. Oscar Mercado (CLE) +88
21. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) +74
77. Manuel Margot (SD) +49
37. A.J. Pollock (LAD) +48
52. Alex Verdugo (LAD) +44
62. Chris Taylor (LAD) +44
59. Danny Santana (TEX) +40
Top Fallers
100. Gregory Polanco (PIT) -55
121. Dwight Smith Jr. (BAL) -46
88. Stephen Piscotty (OAK) -45
109. Billy Hamilton (KC) -45
104. Jay Bruce (PHI) -39
76. Wil Myers (SD) -37
114. Leonys Martin (FA) -30
78. Adam Jones (ARI) -25

Starting Pitchers – Compared to Expert Concensus (Preaseason)

Top Risers
56. Brendan McKay (TB) +94
65. Dinelson Lamet (SD) +85
70. Jordan Yamamoto (MIA) +80
71. Corey Kluber (CLE) +63
33. Carlos Martinez (STL) +59
69. Chase Anderson (MIL) +55
99. Elieser Hernandez (MIA) +51
101. Andrew Cashner (BOS) +49
Top Fallers
123. Tyler Glasnow (TB) – INJ -50
107. Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – MIN -41
110. Jerad Eickhoff (PHI) -39
77. Rich Hill (LAD) – INJ -38
68. German Marquez (COL) -36
85. Jose Quintana (CHC) -33
108. Dylan Bundy (BAL) -33
130. Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – INJ -32




Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Photo Credit: Getty Images

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Starting Pitcher Rest of Season Rankings Update (June 2019)

It’s nearing the end of June and we are rapidly approaching the mid-point of the 2019 season. I can’t believe had quickly the first half has gone! It doesn’t matter whether you are in first place or in the bottom third of your league, you should still be competing. Two years ago, I was in a head-to-head league where I was in 10th place (out of 12 teams) at the end of June and managed to make a couple of trades and key waiver wire pickups where I vaulted all the way to third place by September. I ended up staying hot and winning the league after three weeks of playoffs. I understand that in Roto formats, this is much more difficult to do, but even if you’re in the middle of the pack, you have a chance. Below are my rest of season rankings for starting pitchers and relief pitchers for standard roto 5×5 leagues. If you have questions regarding specific players in the format in which you play, please feel free to comment. Keep in mind the vs ECR and +/- ECR is based on the expert consensus rankings, not my previous rankings. Click here to see my May update.


 

Risers

Dallas Keuchel (SP – ATL) +44 (93 to 49)
After a long layoff, Keuchel has finally signed with the Atlanta Braves. It’s a sweet spot to land given the soft schedule in the NL East, the quality of the ballclub as a whole, and the pitcher-friendly environment at SunTrust Park. Plus, the infield defense for Atlanta has been pretty good which compliments Keuchel’s extreme ground ball approach. Yes, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies have not been great per FanGraphs Defensive metrics but it’s not a great measure of success in smaller samples and both ranked in the top five at their respective positions in 2018. Keuchel won’t pile up the strikeouts but he should limit walks and home runs. The projection systems have him at an ERA just under 4.00, so he should provide fantasy teams in 12 and 15-team leagues with plenty of value going forward.

Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW) +19 (39 to 20)
Giolito once again is a big mover as he pushes the top 20. Maybe I was a little reluctant to fully buy-in after only one month of success. However, since 4/17, he’s basically been the best pitcher in baseball with eight wins, a microscopic 1.25 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts in 65 innings (last night excluded). Everything I said last time applies to this update with Giolito with the exception of the elite strikeout rate. Since my late-May update, he’s had a nasty 18.6% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and has a 33.6% strikeout rate. I still think the home run rate and BABIP will rise which is the reason for my hesitation in putting in the elite class. Regression can hit hard like it did last night against the Cubs. Still, owners have hit the jackpot with the soon to be 25-year-old.

Griffin Canning (SP – LAA) +30 ( 76 to 46)
Despite the hype of many other young pitching prospects, it’s Canning who has come out and been unexpectedly successful. So, his .244 BABIP is likely to rise but all of the other metrics seem to be in line with his surface numbers. Besides, he’s rocking a 21.5% K-BB rate that’s tied for 20th among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. Canning is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so home runs will occasionally be a problem but keeping his 94+ MPH fastball up in the zone while keeping his changeup and breaking pitches down has helped boost his strikeout rate. His 16% SwStr rate is absolutely insane. I’m riding Canning but know that an innings cap could be in order especially once the Angels are out of the playoff race.



Lance Lynn (SP – TEX) +- (unranked to 40!)
I never thought I’d be ranking Lance Lynn in the top 40 starting pitchers, but here we are. Lynn’s career-low walk rate in a full season is 8.6% way back in 2012. He’s currently sitting on a walk rate of just 6.1% which he combines with a current career-best 26% strikeout rate. K-BB rate is one of the best in-season measures of future success and Lynn’s 19.8% K-BB% ranks 16th among qualified starters. No, I don’t trust his 4.16 ERA because his .345 BABIP is sure to come down based on his career .305 BABIP. He’s also throwing harder with an average fastball velocity of 94.6 MPH (up 0.6 MPH from 2018 and up 2.0 MPH from 2017)! I think I trust his xFIP of 3.85 more than anything. Let’s call it 3.75-3.85 going forward which is pretty solid given the current landscape of pitching.

Kyle Gibson (SP – MIN) +19 (64 to 45)
While others are salivating over prospects such as Zac Gallen or Dylan Cease, Kyle Gibson is out there slinging it with a career-best K-BB rate of 19.3%. Gibson is already dealing with a home run issue evidenced by his 19.3% HR/FB rate that’s nearly five percent over the league average and he’s still managing a 3.70 ERA and a sparkling 1.17 WHIP. Gibson might be the definition of a boring veteran. But that’s OK. The issue with rookie pitchers, especially for ones on non-contending teams is an innings cap and inconsistencies. I’d rather roll with a veteran like Gibson who is showing the best skills of his career and plays for a contender in a weak division. Besides, his metrics are all trending in the right direction despite a subpar outing last night.

Yu Darvish (SP – CHC) +11 (46 to 35)
OK, so it’s not like we can fully trust Darvish but take a look at his numbers over the last four starts: 2.96 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, a 25.5% strikeout rate, AND just a 7.5% walk rate. That includes a four ER start in Coors Field. I’m focused more on the walk rate that was north of 14% just a couple weeks ago. Darvish is throwing his cutter more and his slider less. He seems to have better control and command of the pitch and its yielded very solid results. In fact, his cutter is a Money Pitch (42.1% O-Swing, 50.4% Zone%, and 20.6% SwStr%) and has a minuscule .198 wOBA against the pitch compared his career .301 wOBA. Compare that to the .360 wOBA against the slider this year. I think Darvish is headed in the right direction, so he gets a bump. Although, he does have top 20 upside, so there’s still a ways to go.


Zac Gallen (SP – MIA) +13 (98 to 85) and  Dylan Cease (SP – CHW) +16 (117 to 101)
After slighting these two in the Kyle Gibson blurb, I’ve gone ahead and moved up both Cease and Gallen. Both will have their limitations as I previously discussed but both are nearing promotions with Gallen getting called up with Pablo Lopez hitting the 10-day IL. Gallen at least has the backdrop of Marlins Park to soften his inconsistent starts, so I prefer him to Cease for the rest of this season. In addition, the projection systems prefer him to Cease. That being said, both are very talented prospects and given the starting pitcher options ranked below, I’ll roll the dice on these top prospects for the upside alone. 

Fallers

German Marquez (SP – COL) -11 (21 to 32)
We knew Coors Field would make for rocky starts but now Marquez has begun to struggle on the road as well. His K-BB rate remains solid at 18.5% but his ERA has ballooned to 4.57. Even in a year with the inflated league-wide ERA, that stings a little from one of your top two or three pitchers. I’m not completely discouraged because the ERA-estimators still show solid skills, but we can’t trust them as much as we would like given the Coors backdrop. There are some positive signs, he hasn’t lost any velocity and he’s throwing his curve and slider more than ever. The issue is with his slider. It’s not performing well after it basically saved his 2018 season. After checking the movement of his slider, he’s lost about an inch of drop and a half inch of horizontal movement. As a result, it’s getting hit hard when he leaves it in the zone.

Based on the heatmap, he’s either burying it off the plate or leaving it center cut. Fortunately, the results against his slider in terms of O-Swing, O-Contact, and SwStr are still great. It’s about location. He’s not far off which is why I didn’t drop him further. If an owner is giving up on him, I’d go buy him on the cheap.

Joe Musgrove (SP – PIT) -18 (36 to 54)
Musgrove was one of my favorite mid-tier starting pitcher targets this year. I landed him on a couple of teams and was feeling good after the month of April. Since then, Musgrove has been a different guy. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and while he’s getting unlucky with his low strand rate, his home run rate looks like it’s due to elevate a bit. I believe in Musgrove’s talent but between his velocity dip and Ray Searage’s pitch-to-contact philosophy, I feel the need to drop him in the rankings. It’s too bad because his slider is getting better results than it ever has in the past. In addition, his curveball has seen an increase and it’s also yielded great results. The problem is his fastball and he’s throwing it over 60% each of the last two outings. I’d like to see it under 50% and see something like 25% sliders, 15% curveballs, and 12% changeups.

Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL) -33 (60 to 93)
Coming off a devastating shoulder injury and surgery, Nelson has clear rust to shake off. It’s been nearly two years since he last pitched prior to his first start earlier this month. This is not someone I’m taking a risk on given the length of his layoff. I think we will see flashes of brilliance from Nelson but those starts will not outweigh the rough outings where he can’t find his control. In addition, the feel for some of his pitches may go in and out as well. This is not a roller coaster I want to get on. I will very likely be back in on Nelson in 2020 as long as he can stay healthy. 

Yusei Kikuchi (SP – SEA) -35 (44 to 79)
After showing some flashes in April, Kikuchi has proved to be unusable in 12 team leagues. He now has an ERA above 5.00 and a strikeout rate below 7.0 per nine innings. He has been absolutely crushed by the long ball giving up 17 home runs in just 80.1 innings pitched. He’s already given up 10 homers off his fastball and a .406 wOBA against the pitch. It’s evident that he needs to reduce his fastball usage that is just north of 50% usage to date. His slider and curve have been decent and the slider can get plenty of whiffs. That’s the reason I haven’t completely buried him because I think he has a chance to be a somewhat successful junkballer. If that happens, his strikeout rate should improve and he could be useful. I’ll be monitoring his pitch mix going forward.

Kevin Gausman (SP – ATL) -62 (45 to 107)
I know Gausman landed on the IL, but that’s not why he has dropped in the rankings. It’s because of his 6.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Now, his K-BB rate isn’t all that bad at 14.1% and I think his .339 BABIP and 57.6% strand rate are due for some positive regression, but he’s become a two-pitch pitcher. He throws is his fastball and splitter over 95% of the time. The increased use of his splitter is the reason for his bump in strikeout rate but also has hurt his walk rate. Given the fact that hitters can just sit on the fastball, he’s been crushed the second time through the order with an 8.14 ERA! I’ll be monitoring his pitch mix upon his return but if he continues throwing two pitches, I’m not even giving him a look despite his second-half success in the past.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Photo Courtesy of  JAE C. HONG AP


Fantasy Baseball Hitter Rankings Update – Early June

I’ve finally completed my second in-season rankings update here in early June. There has been a shakeup at the top of the list and for good reason. Over the last two seasons, I’ve only considered Mookie Betts as the potential heir apparent to Mike Trout. That’s not the case. The new leader in the clubhouse is on pace for over 50 home runs and over 30 steals. You guessed, it’s Christian Yelich. Nothing in his profile shows that he will slow down. He’s currently sporting career-bests in K% and BB%, has increased his fly ball rate while maintaining an insane 35% HR/FB rate. That’s unheard of! He’s been able to do this with an increase in pulled fly balls and thanks to a more favorable home park. OK, let’s dig into the rankings, you can sort them by position or overall hitters. The +/- in the ECR column is my rankings compared to the Expert Consensus, not my previous rankings. If you want to see my update from late-April, here it is. Also for reference, here is my update before the season.

 

Catcher

Up

Jason Castro (C – MIN) +25 from 45 to 21
Previously, I had Castro buried in the catcher rankings to start the season. At the time of my previous update, he was hitting under .200 and was splitting time with Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo. Since Garver went down. Castro really shined in his absence. Unfortunately for Castro, Garver is back and at best, there will be a 50/50 time split. That’s the reason he’s only up to 21st overall for catchers.

Will Smith (LAD) Unranked to 36, Mitch Garver (MIN) +10, Jonathan Lucroy (LAA) +9

Down

Francisco Meija (C – SD) -15 from 20 to 35
Well, 2019 does not appear to be the year of Francisco Mejia. He’s only playing a couple of days a week, doesn’t have a home run, and hitting below the Mendoza line. Why isn’t he lower on this list then? The Padres are playing well but I have a feeling they fall out of contention before August 1st. I think Meija gets a boost in playing time after the All-Star break (hopefully sooner) and produces like a top 15 catcher. A solid second half could boost Meija’s value going into 2020. NOTE: Mejia was sent to the minors, I might drop him a few spots, but not much. 

Wellington Castillo -7; Danny Jansen -7

First Base

Up

Josh Bell (1B – PIT) +16 (23 to 7)
What do you think of this ranking? Not high enough or too high? There seems to be split decisions in regards to Bell from the fantasy community. Bell quieted down his batting stance in the box to eliminate some inconsistencies from past seasons. He’s barreling up balls at an elite rate and is pulling more fly balls than ever. The gains are real and he’s earned his production to date. Then there’s his .372 BABIP which prior to this season had never been higher than .305. Yes, he’s hitting the ball harder and hitting more line drives. The increase is justified but he’s also carrying a BABIP on fly balls that’s almost .100 points higher than league-average. Same with his line drives. So, those are coming down, but so what, he’s not a .330 hitter. That’s OK. I think he finishes around .300 with 35-40 homers, so that means ROS he may hit .285 with 20 homers.

Matt Olson +21 coming off of injury & showing power, C.J. Cron + 17, Miguel Sano +13

Down

Jake Bauers (1B/OF – CLE) -11 (31 to 42)
Bauers looked like a potential sleeper coming into 2019 given his advanced approach and improving quality of contact. He also has above average speed, so envisioning a 20 HR/10 SB season with upside from there was not difficult. He’s managed to hit just .218 this year but has fantastic contact skills. The projections are still bullish on him going forward, he just needs to improve his quality of contact. He’s already going to be a sleeper for me going into 2020. He’s only 23 years old and I think his power will start to develop. Maybe he’s more of a 25 homer, 10 SB guy next year. I don’t know, but I’m still monitoring him.

Travis Shaw, -12;  Jesus Aguilar -12; Joey Votto -8

Second Base 

Up

Tommy La Stella (2B/3B/OF – LAA) (Unranked to 23trd)
The former pinch-hitting specialist for the Braves and Cubs has finally found a home. The Angels are not a deep team offensively so La Stella is getting every day playing time. I recently wrote a piece about power over/underperformers and La Stella topped the list. His power won’t likely continue but he’s made significant gains in contact rate. His 91.4% contact rate is near the top of the leaderboard and it’s helped him cut his strikeout rate in half. All of the stars are aligning for La Stella right now and he’s even underperforming his current BABIP (.287 BABIP vs .302 xBABIP). He’s getting playing time, making a ton of contact, and the properties of the ball are favoring hitters. This season is not repeatable for La Stella but ride it while you can.

Gleyber Torres +8; Cesar Hernandez +8; Brandon Lowe +10; DJ LeMahieu

Down

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL) -4 (6 to 10)
I had originally moved Albies up after another hot start in April. Since May 1st, he’s slashing just .230/.289/.311 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with one home run and one steal. That’s not great friends. His approach still needs some refinements but his strikeout rate remains solid. He’s due some positive BABIP regression (.321 xBABIP vs .289 BABIP), so I expect at least a modest bump in his batting average. His stolen base potential has also been disappointing. He doesn’t have elite speed and the Braves aren’t giving him the green light. I think he has the ability to steal 25 bases but given what we’ve seen, he’s more of a 10-15 SB guy. .275-20-12 in 2019’s landscape is not something I’m chasing in redrafts.

Jonathan Villar -5; Brian Dozier -7; Kike Hernandez -14

Third Base

Up

Rafael Devers (3B – BOS) +7 (18 to 11)
It’s clear that Devers has worked hard this offseason to improve his game and it’s showing on the field this year. You have to remember, Devers is still only 22 years old. Most players are in Double-A (if they are lucky) at that age. He’s hitting .316 with nine home runs and his exit velocity has jumped more than two MPH from last year. He’s also stolen eight bases to date which is surprising and far from insignificant. He’s not fast by any means but he did steal 18 bases in Single-A back in 2016, so 15 SB is not out of the question. He’s also improved his contact rates which is something I love to see especially when the quality of contact improves. That’s the reason for his elevated BABIP as well. When I see improvements in both quality and overall contact, it means he’s maturing and taking his game to the next level. I think he maintains a near .300 average and pushes 25-30 homers while stealing double-digit bases.

Kris Bryant +7; Carlos Santana +9; Nick Senzel +12, Austin Riley Unranked to 14th

Down

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B – CLE) -7 (from 2 to 9)
It’s time to move Jo-Ram down. I left him at number two overall in my late-April update expecting a rebound. He started slow in April 2018 and ended up hitting 39 homers and stealing 34 bases. This year, however, he has not flipped the switch. We are beyond the point when Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt turned their seasons around last year, so the clock is ticking. Ramirez hasn’t completely been useless thanks to stealing 14 bases but he’s on pace for only 11 home runs and is still hitting just over the Mendoza line at .204. He’s never been a Statcast stud, but given elite plate approach and contact skills, he was able to maximize his abilities.

He’s been unlucky for sure, but his expected metrics are still well below where they were in 2018. He’s traded valuable pulled fly balls for pop-ups which are automatic outs. His heavy pulled fly ball approach has lessened this year. Not only is he hitting fewer pulled fly balls but he’s not hitting them as hard either. He’s also yet to homer to centerfield, something did seven times last season. As the weather heats up, I’d expect a power boost given the metrics but he probably finishes closer to 15-18 homers and 30 steals with a .240 average. That’s still top 100 but you drafted him in the top 10 and in many cases, top 5.

Jurickson Profar (1B/2B/3B/OF – OAK) -12 (22 to 34)
I was relatively low on Profar coming into the season as the move from hitter-friendly Globe Life Park to Oakland Coliseum had me concerned about his power output. Then, the ball’s properties changed and balls started flying out at record rates. Alas, fly balls and home runs remained but his profile has killed his batting average. He’s not going to carry a sub-.200 BABIP all season but a 20% infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) and a low line drive rate will suppress BABIP. Just ask Rougned Odor. He’s also been lucky with nine home runs on just 10 barrels. Profar is a deep league utility bat only.

Matt Carpenter -5; Josh Donaldson -7; Maikal Frano -10

Shortstop

UP

Ketel Marte (2B/SS/OF) +8 (18 to 10)
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I love Marte. I’ve been on Marte since he was traded from Seattle to the Diamondbacks. He’s always had great contact rates and is a great athlete. His speed has never factored in much in terms of stolen bases but he’s really bulked up this past offseason. He’s already reached his home run total from a year ago and the power metrics back up his bump in power. He’s in the top 20 overall in terms of most balls hit over 95 MPH and has the longest home run on record in 2019!He’s legit and I think he can reach 30 home runs or more this year. I wish he ran more, but I’ll settle for .280-32 HR-8 SB with a ton of counting stats.

Gleyber Torres (2B/SS – NYY) +7; Tim Anderson (SS – CHW) +4; Didi Gregorius +16

DOWN

Jonathan Villar (2B/SS – BAL) -6 (10 to 16)
It’s not that my projections for Villar have changed much at all. He’s essentially on pace for my preseason projection of 16 home runs, 34 steals, and a .250 average. The homers might actually be a little light but I doubt he reaches 34 SBs. It’s more about his peers passing him in the rankings. Gleyber Torres, Ketel Marte, Tim Anderson, and Jorge Polanco have all jumped him in the rankings. Nothing is really different about Villar. He’s still hitting near the top of a poor offensive Orioles club, hitting for some power and providing speed.

Manny Machado -3; Jean Segura -7; Tim Beckham -10

 

Outfield

UP

Austin Meadows (OF – TB) +24 (from 43 to 19)
Every month this year Meadows has hit over .300. That’s not by accident. Since the trade from Pittsburgh to Tampa Bay, Meadows has thrived. He’s making more contact and his overall quality of contact is near elite. He’s a fixture in the top third of the Rays lineup, so he should compile a fair share of counting stats. Given his skills, I’d expect around 25 homers and 15 stolen bases to go with a .300 average. That’s a hell of a deal from a guy who was draft between 150 and 200 overall.

Franmil Reyes (OF – SD) +27 (24 from 51)
Do you realize how impressive Reyes’ start to his career is? He has 19 home runs in only 211 plate appearances (PA) this year. But, in his brief career that spans 496 PA, he already has 35 home runs! That’s a 42 home run pace over 600 PA. The kid is still just 23 years old. He does have some major contact issues but so does Peter Alonso. In fact, they are very similar players and Alonso is actually older than Reyes by seven months. They even have nearly identical expected wOBAs (.389 for Alonso and .390 for Reyes). It’s just that Reyes is carrying a .240 BABIP which 75 points lower than his xBABIP. From this point forward, I think Reyes has a great shot at outproducing Alonso the rest of 2019.

Max Kepler +24; Kyle Schwarber +10; Joc Pederson +15; Byron Buxton +13; Jorge Soler +22; Avisail Garcia +36

DOWN
Wil Myers (1B/OF) – SD) -8 (from 31 to 39)
Myers has provided nice category juice with 11 home runs and six steals thus far but he’s whiffing more than ever before. His strikeout rate of 36.2% is in the bottom one percent in the league. He’s been absolutely brutal against curveballs (62.5% K rate) and changeups (47.4% K rate). Both of which he’s somehow managed BABIPs over .500, so expect regression there. Oh, and he has a .233 batting average with a .333 BABIP, so if you’re expecting an improvement in BA, it’s not coming. He is sporting solid hard hit rates and expected batting average on contact (xBACON) but also 27.8% HR/FB rate that seems very unlikely to maintain. Not only would it be a career-high for Myers, it would be nine percent higher than his previous best HR/FB rate. That’s hard to believe considering an infield fly ball rate that is the worst of his career.

Nicholas Castellanos -7; Ryan Braun -11; Delino DeShields -12

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


Photo Credit: Milwaukee Brewers Facebook

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Starting Pitcher ROS Rankings – May Update (Fantasy Baseball)

Wow, quite a bit has changed since Opening Day back in late-March. We are just under two months into the season so a starting pitcher rankings update was well overdue. I also included my relief pitcher ranking updates as well. In the blurbs below, I’ll cover the pitchers who have seen significant movement since opening day. If a player has been injured, they, of course, have dropped in the rankings. I won’t cover them as it’s obvious why they have fallen. There are some pitchers who are intriguing and have shown skills changes (both good and bad) discussed below. Note: The ECR +/- is based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, not my previous ranks. Click here for my preseason rankings.

 

BIGGEST RISERS

Caleb Smith (SP – MIA) +73 and Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA) +93
Yeah, Smith has been unbelievable this year. I had him ranked just inside the top 100 (99th) at the start the season and now he’s inside the top 20! To my credit, I did rank him as the top Marlins pitcher followed by Richards and Lopez. Smith has earned a 28.5% K-BB% which ranks fourth in all of baseball! All of the ERA estimators have him regressing closer to an ERA near 3.00, but given his skills, that puts him inside the top 20 overall for SPs.  Lopez has jumped over Richards as the Marlins second best option. His 5.06 ERA does not indicate how good he’s been. He has a 1.17 WHIP, an 18% K-BB%, and his ERA estimators have him closer to 3.65. I’ve bumped him up to 56th overall but could be higher if he didn’t pitch for one of the worst teams in the league. The same could be said for Smith (who could be top 15). Smith is long gone but Lopez may still be available in 12-team leagues.

Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW) +95
How fitting. Giolito just threw a complete game shutout against the Astros striking out nine batters. He’s been an absolute beast this year. I thought about bumping him up even more but feel that he’s safe in the upper-30s. Clearly, I was not in on Giolito coming into the season after a disastrous 6.13 ERA in 2018. He’s doing everything right. His K% is up to a whopping 12%, his walk rate is down over two percent, and he’s given up just three homers in 52 innings! That home run rate probably won’t stick but his improvements look somewhat legit. He dropped his sinker usage and is throwing his changeup more. Increasing his FB velocity has helped as well. He’s getting ahead of hitters and has a career-high zone rate. Now for the not so great. I don’t want to completely throw cold water on Giolito but he doesn’t quite have elite swing and miss stuff and when the weather heats up in Chicago, he’s in for some regression. Still, I think he’s more of 24-25% K rate pitcher with a home run per nine innings. I’d put him closer to a 3.50-3.60 ERA with near a strikeout per inning. 

Matt Boyd (SP – DET) +33
Based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus, my rank was on average 28 spots higher than the other experts. I guess you could call this one a victory for me but then why do I only own one share? Sad. I loved what I saw with his slider last season and he was one of my favorite weekly streamers. He really was just one step away from being very good which is why I boosted him in my preseason ranks. Well, he’s taken that next step and looks a lot like Patrick Corbin from last season. Other than very little run support, Boyd looks like a great SP2/3 this year with some upside. The AL Central is full of mediocre and poor offensive clubs (sans Minnesota), so I don’t see much regression in Boyd’s numbers.

Chris Paddack (SP – SD) +44
The rookie sensation has been fantastic in the early going. He’s got the stuff, he’s got command, and he’s got control. It will be interesting to see how the Padres handle him. He’s rumored to get only 140 innings this year but he’s starting every sixth day. At his current pace, he would be shut down with about three weeks remaining in the regular season. That kind of sucks for head-to-head leagues but should be just fine for roto leagues.

Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) +16
Kershaw might not be the best pitcher in baseball but he’s doing the best with his declining velocity and skills. He’s throwing his breaking balls nearly 60% of the time but it does appear to be working. His control and command are elite and should be a top 15 starting pitcher if he remains healthy. Let’s just hope his back issues stay away for four more months.

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN) +15
Everywhere you look, people are calling for regression with Castillo and we saw some of that against the Brewers on Wednesday but his quality of contact against has been elite. Per BaseballSavant, his xwOBA is .249 which is just insane. My boo from last offseason is off to a hell of a start and has now essentially been an ace over the last calendar year. Here are his numbers since May 24th, 2018:
182.2 IP 12-9 3.25 ERA 1.08 WHIP 193 Strikeouts

That’s what I call a borderline ace. His changeup has been the best in the bigs this year. He’s close, but not quite there. His zone rate is dangerously low and it’s really bumped his walk rate. If he can dip his BB% to 8-9%, he’s going to be a monster.

FALLERS

Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI) -55
Ouch Nicky P. Was Pivetta a sleeper if everyone loved him coming into the season? Unfortunately, K-BB% isn’t everything. Quality of contact and location of pitches in the zone are extremely important. Pivetta may be recalled soon as he’s pitched well in Triple-A, I’m just no running to the waiver wire to add him save for deep leagues. He’s walking more batters and his BABIP is low in the minors. In over 315 innings in the bigs, his BABIP is .335. He just won’t succeed if those numbers continue.

Kyle Freeland (SP – COL) -65
Outside of injury or demotion, Freeland is the biggest faller from my preseason ranks. Coors Field is a bitch, amirite? Freeland has already given up 12 home runs this year after giving up 17 in all of 2018. We all knew regression was coming but no one expected this much. He’s still struggling with walks and the juiced ball has really hurt his home run rate. But, he’s also turned into a fly ball pitcher with his fly ball rate over 40% (up 6%). He’s not likely this bad but given him limitations with strikeouts, he’s not rosterable in 12 or even 14-team leagues. 

Miles Mikolas (SP – STL) -43
I had him at 24 in my preseason rankings as I believed his stuff could induce more swings and misses and therefore net more strikeouts. That has clearly not been the case. It figures that a pitcher who pitches to contact would get bitten by the juiced ball. Duh. As strikeout rates continue to rise, Mikolas’ K rate is falling. Mikolas doesn’t appeal to me as a fantasy player in this era. I missed on this one.

Ross Stripling (SP – LAD) -35
Well, we knew the risk going into the season with Stripling and other Dodgers starters. There’s a ton of skill and depth in that rotation but also a lot of uncertainty in terms of health. It’s difficult to rank Stripling any higher even though he’s been very successful as a starter. As a bullpen arm, he falls outside the top 100 but as a starter, he’s a top 40 option. In deep leagues, hold him, in shallow leagues, he’s a clear cut.

If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @FreezeStats


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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Rankings – Late-April Update

I plan on updating my rankings once every month but decided to split up hitters and pitchers. I feel like, given the small samples and some of the crazy stat-lines for many aces, I’m going to hold off for a couple of weeks. I’m not ready to drop certain pitchers based on a couple of bad starts because there are many early-season factors to consider. My updated hitter and positional rankings are shown below. Below the table, I’ll cover a few interesting risers and fallers for each position and the reason for their changing stock. Keep in mind that the +/- shown are based on Expert Consensus, not my preseason rankings. If you’d like to compare these rankings to my preseason ranks, feel free to check them out here.

Cover biggest risers and fallers with how many spots they moved

 

Third Base

Hunter Dozier (1B/3B – KC) – Movin’ on up
Dozier was somewhat of a forgotten man on draft day but has gone off in the first month of the season. He’s hitting .304 with seven home runs and batting in the middle of a surprisingly decent Royals lineup. I’ve written about him here and here. I wouldn’t just move him up over 100 spots without some sort of improvement. I’ve explained it in the linked articles but his plate approach and discipline has improved greatly without sacrificing any contact. He’s actually improved his exit velocity and barrel rates.
Note: Check he status because he left Monday night’s game with back spasms, sigh. 
Other risers: Matt Chapman, Josh Donaldson, Yandy Diaz, Maikel Franco

Travis Shaw (3B – MIL) – Get Low
It pains me to drop one of my preseason favorites in Travis Shaw but he has been straight up bad. It’s mostly a contact issue as his strikeout rate is up almost 14% from 2018! His contact rate is down by the same amount but he’s not expanding the zone or swinging less frequently. He’s just missing balls in the zone that he should be hitting. It’s too bad because his quality of contact is just fine, in fact, it’s better than in 2018. All is not lost but if I’m the Brewers, I might sit him down for a few days to clear his head.
Other negative movers: Justin Turner, Miguel Andujar, Wilmer Flores

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL) – Movin’ on up
Yes, that’s right, Swanson is a post-post-hype sleeper. Let’s just compare his 2018 to his to-date metrics in 2019 because a picture says a thousand words.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow! Not much to say here. He’s already barreled eight balls after just 15 in all of 2018 and his exit velocity is up four MPH. He’s also swinging a lot less often, especially outside the zone. These are astronomical changes that should yield significantly better results in 2019 for Swanson. I’m buying in for sure as he could be solid producer of power and speed from the MI position.

Jose Peraza (2B/SS – CIN)
I was off Peraza this preseason but obviously not enough. His approach has gone to sh&t. He’s swinging at everything outside the zone and has extremely weak contact. He’s dropped to the bottom third of the batting order and could be in danger of losing playing time going forward. He’s hit just one homer and stolen two bases thus far and has yet to draw a walk in over 60 plate appearances. He’s never walked much, but this is not a good sign. He can be dropped in shallow formats.

Catcher

Wilson Contreras (C – CHC) – Movin’ on up
Contreras has seemed to put his poor 2018 behind him as he’s hitting .321 with six home runs and ranks number one for all catchers in terms of wOBA at .483. His launch angle has improved and he’s never hit the ball harder in his career. Remember, he was the number two catcher off the board in 2018 drafts and he looks 100% back here in 2019. With how shallow the position is, Contreras looks like a great investment given hos draft-day discount.
Other positive movers: Omar Narvaez, Willians Astudillo, Mitch Garver

Negative Movers: Danny Jansen, Robinson Chirinos, Francisco Mejia

First Base

Trey Mancini (1B/OF – BAL) – Movin’ on up
My man Trey “Boom Boom” Mancini is looking like he’s breaking out in his age-27 season. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up, and launch angle is up. His power metrics are actually right in line with 2018 but he’s hitting the ball in the air more frequently. He underperformed based on his number of barrels last year but his luck is changing this year. No, he’s not a .300 hitter but could carry a .275 average with 30 Home runs.
Other positive movers: Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Pete Alonso, Dan Vogelbach

Jesus Aguilar (1B – MIL) – Get Low
Aguilar is suffering from an extremely low BABIP but it’s his lack of power that is so surprising. He has yet to homer and his playing time is at risk. I debated moving him down even more but his plate discipline and contact rates are still solid. He’s not hitting the ball quite as hard, so there is some concern here. The Brewers are competing and have other options at first base (Eric Thames and Ryan Braun), so they may not be as patient with Aguilar to figure it out. He’s still inside the top 20 1B, but he’s in danger of dropping even further.
Other negative overs: Joey Votto, Mat Olson, Eric Hosmer

Outfield

Clint Frazier (OF – NYY) – Movin’ on up
This one is obvious because everyone on the Yankees is going down with injuries. The Yankees’ preseason starting outfield is entirely on the injured list and Frazier has finally gotten his opportunity. All he’s done is hit six bombs in only 17 games. The metrics look good so far and Yankee Stadium is certainly helping out. I think we will see an elevated strikeout rate from Frazier but as long as he continues to get playing time, he’s a must own.
Other positive Movers: Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Kike Hernandez

Greg Allen (OF – CLE) – Get Low
I know, he was largely undrafted but looked like he could be a solid source of stolen bases given the shallow depth in the Cleveland outfield. He’s really struggled to get on base and the Indians have signed Carlos Gonzalez and Jake Bauers is also getting some time in the outfield. Allen can play some defense and really run, so he’s still going to get playing time but sparingly. He’s a drop in all formats expect AL-Only.
Negative movers: Kris Bryant, Ender Inciarte, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.


2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPro
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Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2019

Alright folks, this is it! My last positional ranking post for 2019! The only thing left to do is to publish my top 300 rankings followed by my projections. If you want to see my positional rankings table, here it is! Back to pitching. The landscape surrounding pitching is changing. The number of pitchers who reached to 200 inning plateau has declined in four of the last five seasons. Here are the number of pitchers to reach 200 IP since 2014:  34, 28, 15, 15, 13.  In my personal projections, I’ve got only three pitchers with over 200 innings pitched this year. Yes, you heard that right. That might be a little conservative, but not that many pitchers average 6.5 innings per start or more. That being said, I have seven pitchers projected between 195 IP and 199.2 IP. I believe they all have a great shot at reaching 200 innings. Then again, there will always be someone like James Shields to reach to the 200 inning plateau that you would not expect (he threw 204 innings last year). I promise you, this is the last you will hear of James Shields in this post. Here we go!

Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2019

RankPlayerTeamPosTier
1Max ScherzerWASSP1
2Chris SaleBOSSP1
3Jacob deGromNYMSP1
4Justin VerlanderHOUSP2
5Trevor BauerCLESP2
6Gerrit ColeHOUSP2
7Corey KluberCLESP2
8Blake SnellTBSP2
9Aaron NolaPHISP2
10Carlos CarrascoCLESP2
11Walker BuehlerLADSP2
12Noah SyndergaardNYMSP2
13Patrick CorbinWASSP3
14Luis SeverinoNYYSP3
15James PaxtonNYYSP3
16Stephen StrasburgWASSP3
17Zack GreinkeARISP3
18Mike ClevingerCLESP3
19German MarquezCOLSP3
20Zack WheelerNYMSP3
21Jameson TaillonPITSP3
22Jack FlahertySTLSP3
23Clayton KershawLADSP3
24Jose BerriosMINSP3
25David PriceBOSSP3
26Mike MikolasSTLSP4
27Charlie MortonTBSP4
28Masahiro TanakaNYYSP4
29Luis CastilloCINSP4
30Robbie RayARISP4
31Mike FoltynewiczATLSP4
32Chris ArcherPITSP4
33Madison BumgarnerSFSP4
34Yu DarvishCHCSP4
35Nick PivettaPHISP4
36Eduardo RodriguezBOSSP5
37Shane BieberCLESP5
38Kyle HendricksCHCSP5
39Cole HamelsCHCSP5
40Kenta MaedaLADSP5
41Ross StriplingLADSP5
42J.A. HappNYYSP5
43Rich HillLADSP5
44Joe MusgrovePITSP5
45Yusei KikuchiSEASP5
46Nathan EovaldiBOSSP5
47Tyler GlasnowTBSP5
48Kyle FreelandCOLSP5
49Jose QuintanaCHCSP5
50Tyler SkaggsLAASP5
51Alex WoodCINSP5
52Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP5
53Dallas KeuchelFASP6
54Rick PorcelloBOSSP6
55Joey LucchesiSDSP6
56Andrew HeaneyLAASP6
57Josh JamesHOUSP6
58Kevin GausmanATLSP6
59Jesus LuzardoOAKSP6
60Forrest WhitleyHOUSP6
61Jimmy NelsonMILSP6
62Anibal SanchezWASSP6
63Collin McHughHOUSP, RP6
64Alex ReyesSTLSP6
65Matt BoydDETSP6
66Kyle GibsonMINSP6
67Freddy PeraltaMILSP7
68Zach EflinPHISP7
69Steven MatzNYMSP7
70Jon LesterCHCSP7
71Matt StrahmSDRP/SP7
72Jake ArrietaPHISP7
73Carlos MartinezSTLSP7
74Zack GodleyARISP7
75Jon GrayCOLSP7
76Sonny GrayCINSP7
77Michael FulmerDETSP7
78Julio UriasLADSP8
79Derek HollandSFGSP8
80Dylan BundyBALSP8
81Sean NewcombATLSP8
82Mike MinorTEXSP8
83Jeff SamardzijaSFSP8
84Marco GonzalesSEASP8
85Jake JunisKCSP8
86Touki ToussaintATLSP8
87Anthony DeSclafaniCINSP8
88Mike SorokaATLSP8
89Jake OdorizziMINSP8
90Vincent VelasquezPHISP8
91Trevor RichardsMIASP8
92Luke WeaverARISP8
93Trevor WilliamsPITSP9
94Reynaldo LopezCHWSP9
95Marcus StromanTORSP9
96Seth LugoNYMSP9
97Brandon WoodruffMILSP9
98Jose UrenaFLASP9
99Michael WachaSTLSP9
100Danny DuffyKCSP9
101Robbie ErlinSDSP9
102Wade LeBlancSEASP9
103Nick KinghamPITSP10
104Brad PeacockHOUSP10
105Trevor CahillLAASP10
106Domingo GermanNYYSP10
107Ryan YarbroughTBSP10
108Chase AndersonMILSP10
109Chriss PaddackSDSP10
110Justus SheffieldSEASP10
111Luiz GoharaATLSP10
112Michael PinedaMINSP10
113Ryan BoruckiTORSP10
114Jonathan LoaisigaNYYSP10
115Max FriedATLSP11
116Tyler AndersonCOLSP11
117Carlos RodonCWSSP11
118Corbin BurnesMILSP11
119Wade MileyHOUSP11
120Dereck RodriguezSFSP11
121Julio TeheranATLSP11
122Jhoulys ChacinMILSP11
123Tanner RoarkCINSP11
124Mike LeakeSEASP11
125Ivan NovaCHWSP11
126Jaime BarriaLAASP11
127Sean Reid-FoleyTORSP11
128Taijuan WalkerARISP11
129Wei-Yin ChenMIASP11
130CC SabathiaNYYSP11
131Sean ManaeaOAKSP11
132Johnny CuetoSFSP11

Tier 1: No surprises here. There’s one statistic for a pitcher that I believe trumps all others. That’s K-BB%. These fellas were all in the top 4 last year in that statistic, with the other being Verlander. I flip-flopped Sale and deGrom but they are so close. Sale has the most insane metrics but has either worn down at the end of the season or missed time to injury the previous two years. Otherwise, he’d be number one but I have him projected for about 180 innings. Based on Standard Gain Points and my projections, 180 innings of elite-Sale is more valuable than 210 innings of deGrom.

Tier 2: The only reason Verlander is not in tier 1 is because of his age. He just turned 36 and as much of workhorse Verlander has been in his career, his age just concerns me a teeny bit. I love Bauer as I think he’s taken the step into superstardom. The difference between Bauer and Cole is razor thin but I’m going to lean towards the more cerebral pitcher in Bauer. Three Indians in the top nine is pretty interesting but I could not drop Carrasco any lower after digging in. Carrasco was eighth in the league in K-BB% last year and was unlucky in terms of BABIP at .315. His skills took a leap forward last year and now has 180+ innings in three of the last four seasons. I’ll touch on Buehler. He’s the real deal. He could be in the top five as early as next year. His elite fastball is an extremely strong foundation and I see a little Verlander in him. Like, a shorter version of Verlander without the insanely hot wife.

Tier 3: Maybe Corbin regresses a little after his massive breakout in 2018 but then again, his peripherals point to the opposite. His slider is arguably the best in the game and with the addition of his slow-slider, he’s rocking those breaking balls at a 50% clip. Moving to Washington with potentially a better ball club should provide help in terms of his win total, and I don’t see the strikeouts going away. This tier is filled with veterans who are either on the decline or struggle to stay healthy for a full season. It’s also filled with some newcomers whose skills could push them into tier 2 by the end of the season. My favorites in this group include Clevinger, Marquez, Wheeler, Taillon, and Berrios. I’m not as high on Flaherty as some other analysts because of his 9.6% walk rate. He also struggled with the home run ball a bit in 2018. The reason he maintained such solid ratios was his elevated strand rate. I think there is some regression with his ratios and project a slight decrease in strikeout rate. I still like him, but there will be people in the draft room who like him more than I do.

Tier 4: speaking if regression, Folty is due for quite a bit of it and not in a good way. His breakout was fantastic, but there are warning signs everywhere. His swinging strike rate was relatively low compared to his 27%+ strikeout rate. He still struggles with walks and was fortunate to keep his BABIP near .250. Maybe he can keep up a 27% K rate with a league aver SwStr rate, I don’t know? That being said, Atlanta provides a nice floor for Folty and he still possesses high-end skills which is why he remains in my top 30. Yes, that’s Madison Bumgarner down at 33. His fastball has been a train wreck, er, ah dirt bike wreck since 2017. His ratios have been saved by the confines of AT&T Park but now on the last year of his deal the and Giants in rebuild-mode, Bumgarner could be moved before the All-Star Break. Going almost anywhere else will hurt his ratios and his value. Even if he stays, his strikeout rate has gone the way of the Dodo. I didn’t think I was completely in on Pivetta but there he is at 35. There’s too much to like with Pivetta. Remember that K-BB% I was talking about? Pivetta was 16th in the league last year one spot behind teammate Aaron Nola. If Pivetta can suppress BABIP a little bit and increase his strand rate, he’s a top 25 SP.

Tier 5: This is my favorite tier! I absolutely love Heaney and Bieber this year! Bieber had a near-20% K-BB% but a crazy-high BABIP and low LOB% killed his ratios. I expect some moderate regression there (the positive kind). I just hope he doesn’t fall into the Michael Pineda mold where he throws too many strikes and gives in to hitters too often. Here’s my Heany take, I did a deep dive on him and really like what I saw. I would love to grab two aces in the first three rounds and just wait on pitching until much later grabbing Heaney and Bieber back-to-back around picks 130-140. To be honest, I will end up with at least three pitchers from this tier. The best part about this tier is many of these guys are going well after pick 200 in drafts, so you won’t have to reach. The more I look at the pitchers I have ranked 35 (Pivetta) through Skaggs (Tier 6), the more I want to wait on pitching. As I just mentioned , I still want two aces as a strong foundation but feel that there is a ton of value after pick 150 for starting pitching. Josh James and Joe Musgrove are a couple guys I already own in dynasty leagues. James has an extremely high strikeout upside while Musgrove has a chance to put it together this year and finish inside the top 30 for SPs. The Dodgers have a ton of talented pitchers and all of them would be higher if they were guaranteed 175+ innings. I’ll pick and choose, I like Maeda and Ryu (see next tier).

Tier 6: As it turns out I like this tier as well. There’s quite a bit more risk here but it’s a nice combination of upside and floor picks. 59-61 includes three very talented starting pitchers with a lot of questions. Obviously, Whitley and Luzardo are rookies, so there’s a ton of risk there. However, other than maybe Alex Reyes, no other rookie starters have the upside of these two. Nelson missed all of 2018, so how will he respond? I’m cautiously optimistic, but won’t be picking him inside of the top 200. After that, he’s a solid pick.

TIer 7: Earlier this offseason I had buried Joey Lucchesi because of his two-pitch arsenal. However, thanks to Jason Collete’s 2019 Pitch Tracker, I found out he’s adding a cutter to his repertoire! This is more exciting than it sounds. His fastball is not great and his change/curve (churve?) is actually a pretty solid pitch. If he can supplement his fastball with a cutter that he can throw for strikes, that’s a boon to his value. The cutter would move in the opposite direction of the fastball which would play nicely off one another. Anyways, I expect Fulmer to bounce back a bit this year, he still has very good velocity and a solid slider to pair with his four-seamer. Of this entire group, I actually like Matz the best. He doesn’t have a standout pitch but throws four pitches with relative effectiveness. Sometimes four decent pitches are better than two great pitches. He feels like he could be on the verge of a breakout as his strikeout rate jumped to 27% in the second half last year.

Tier 8: This is a big tier, huh? Mike Soroka was shut down for discomfort in his shoulder, so I dropped him to the bottom of this tier. He might end up off the list depending on what happens during spring training. Keep an eye out for any updates on Soroka going forward. I really can’t give up on Bundy. I know he gave up over 40 homers last year but he has two elite level pitches in his slider and changeup. He just needs to throw his fastball less often and possibly get out of Baltimore. I’ve always been a sucker for Velasquez, he threw a career-high 143 innings last year and managed a 25%+ K rate. If you’re surprised to see Derek Holland here, don’t be. He’s back in San Francisco where even Madison Bumgarner can put up solid ratios. That was shot at Bum, you guys. A Bum shot. OK, back at it. Trevor Richards has an insane changeup but that’s it. He’s like the super poor man’s Luis Castillo. He’s got a piece but needs something else. Urias and McHugh are much too talented for this tier but when you play for a team with eight starting pitchers, it’s difficult to lof 150+ innings. Besides, Urias is coming off a devastating injury and the Dodgers have already come out saying his innings will be monitored.

Tier 9: I prefer Woodruff over Corbin Burnes for this year. Woodruff has 85 MLB innings under his belt and has already taken his lumps so to speak. Maybe he’s not the 26% K rate guy we saw last year because as a starter, those numbers won’t translate. I still think he can maintain solid ratios while limiting home runs thanks to an elevated ground ball rate. I like Luke Weaver as a bit of a bounceback in 2019 because his skills remain intact. While he outperformed his strikeout rate in 2017, he still has upside. Urena, Wacha, and Duffy are like super boring. That’s OK when you’re this deep. Sometimes stability is exactly what you need after you’ve taken risks on the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Jesus Luzardo. Oh, then there’s Marcus Stroman. I won’t be drafting him as long as he stays in Toronto with that extremely fast turf and poor infield defense. Get him on some real grass with a few legitimate defenders on the infield to put his ground balls to use and I might be back in.

Tier 10: Touki and Kingham are my favorites of this tier. Is that why they are at the top of the tier, Max? Why, yes it is! Anyways, there are questions as to whether or not both will be in their respective rotations because Atlanta has 12 pitching prospects, all of which are close to the majors. Kingham on the other hand just did not perform well last year. They both have the skills to get strikeouts and the potential to be either a #3 or 4 as early as this year. They just need the opportunity. I might actually move Touki up if Soroka will not be ready for opening day. Same goes for Gohara. I like Cahill, his changeup is gross, but in a good way. The problem is that you’re only going to get about 100 innings out of him. Yarbrough is not getting 16 wins this year, I can tell you that but coming into the game in the 2nd inning has its advantages. I don’t trust Chase Anderson even though he’s outperformed his peripherals for the second straight season. I do not want to be the one holding the bag when the bottom drops out.

Tier 11: This tier is for your 15-team and deeper leagues. It’s pretty ugly down here. I’ve only thrown Manaea in here because he’s “reportedly” ahead of schedule. Originally, it was thought he may miss all of 2019 following shoulder surgery. Reports are now saying it’s possible he returns after the All-Star break. This is like Jimmy Nelson last year but with a later timeline. If the Athletics contend, he could see bullpen action in August and possibly a few starts in September. He’s probably not worth a stash, but we are pretty low in the rankings. The few pitchers I’d take a flier on include Jhoulys Chacin, Jamie Barria, Ryan Borucki, Domingo German, and Corbin Burnes. Chacin has a hell of a slider and with its increased usage, it could carry him throughout stretches of the season. The Triple-Bs and German are young upsidey arms without guaranteed starting roles. Barria has the most experience of the group and he does have a bit of strikeout upside despite what his numbers say.


Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.

Image credits: Greg Fiume
Getty Images
Copyright:2018 Getty Images
post

Top 300 Overall Ranking for Fantasy Baseball

With the month about to turn over to March, we are officially in that glorious time of the year. Fantasy Baseball Draft Season! Throughout February, I’ve thrown out my positional tiered rankings along with breakdowns of each tier. You can find those here. I’ve also done some deep dives on some intriguing players and their outlooks for 2019. Those can be found here. My plan in the next few days is to publish all of my projections for 2019. It will likely be a simple post with a table but the link to my google sheet will be there as well. In March, I’ll spit out some articles with players I like more and less than Yahoo and ESPN to help you find values during your draft.
Last year in my first year submitting expert rankings, I finished 13 overall at FantasyPros. There’s a ton of huge names on that list, so 13th isn’t too bad. I’m hoping I can compete and improve this year. Hopefully, these articles and rankings help you win your league!
Rankings Updated 3/13/19.

With this, my top 300 for 2019 ranking, I’ve included dollar values for both 12-team, $260 budget (yahoo standard 22-man roster) and 15-team leagues $300 budget (NFBC expanded rosters) for our auction league players. The rankings and dollar values are Roto-style scoring. I play in at least one auction league every year and these values help me determine where I can find values relative to other players at different positions. I run the values utilizing what others call, standard gain points similar to what Dr. Tannar Bell and Jeff Zimmerman discuss. Each stat category for each player has a value associated with it relative to other “ownable” players. These values are compiled for each player. I then run through some statistical analysis to come up with dollar values based on league size (12-team and 15-team) used below. I want to be clear, I’m using only 22-man rosters for the 12-team dollar values (Yahoo standard) and NFBC expanded rosters for the 15-team leagues. That’s why the dollar values are lower for the 15-team league. I won’t bore you with the details of the calculations, so let’s get to the rankings and dollar values!

Top 300 - Fantasy Baseball 2019

2019 Overall Rankings     
RankPlayerTeamPos12-Team ($)15-Team ($)
1Mike TroutLAAOF$51$44
2Mookie BettsBOSOF$50$43
3Jose RamirezCLE2B/3B$45$37
4J.D. MartinezBOSOF$45$37
5Max ScherzerWASSP$43$37
6Trea TurnerWASSS$42$36
7Christian YelichMILOF$42$36
8Chris SaleBOSSP$40$35
9Nolan ArenadoCOL3B$39$34
10Ronald Acuna Jr.ATLOF$39$34
11Jacob deGromNYMSP$38$33
12Francisco LindorCLESS$37$32
13Manny MachadoSDSS/3B$37$32
14Freddie FreemanATL1B$37$32
15Jose AltuveHOU2B$36$32
16Aaron JudgeNYYOF$36$31
17Bryce HarperPHIOF$35$31
18Trevor StoryCOLSS$33$29
19Alex BregmanHOUSS/3B$33$29
20Paul GoldschmidtARI1B$33$29
21Giancarlo StantonNYYOF$32$28
22Justin VerlanderHOUSP$32$28
23Andrew BenintendiBOSOF$31$27
24Javier BaezCHC2B/SS/3B$31$27
25Trevor BauerCLESP$30$26
26Xander BogaertsBOSSS$30$26
27Anthony RizzoCHC1B$29$26
28Anthony RendonWAS3B$28$25
29Gerrit ColeHOUSP$28$25
30Charlie BlackmonCOLOF$27$25
31Kris BryantCHC3B$26$25
32Corey KluberCLESP$25$24
33Blake SnellTBSP$25$24
34Whit MerrifieldKC2B/OF$25$24
35Aaron NolaPHISP$24$24
36Carlos CarrascoCLESP$24$23
37Khris DavisOAKOF/DH$24$23
38Starling MartePITOF$24$23
39Juan SotoWASOF$23$23
40Marcell OzunaSTLOF$23$23
41Tommy PhamTBOF$23$22
42Walker BuehlerLADSP$23$22
43George SpringerHOUOF$22$22
44Joey VottoCIN1B$22$22
45Rhys HoskinsPHI1B/OF$21$22
46Noah SyndergarrdNYMSP$21$21
47Eugenio SuarezCIN3B$21$21
48Cody BellingerLAD1B/OF$21$21
49Patrick CorbinWASSP$20$21
50Jose AbreuCHW1B$20$21
51Lorenzo CainMILOF$20$21
52Aldberto MondesiKC2B/SS$20$21
53Luis SeverinoNYYSP$19$21
54Edwin DiazNYMRP$19$21
55J.T. RealmutoPHIC/1B$18$20
56Carlos CorreaHOUSS$18$20
57James PaxtonNYYSP$18$20
58Michael ConfortoNYMOF$18$20
59Justin UptonLAAOF$17$20
60Jean SeguraPHISS$17$20
61Nelson CruzMINDH$17$19
62Craig KimbrelFARP$16$19
63Matt OlsonOAK1B$16$19
64Daniel MurphyCOL1B/2B$16$19
65Mitch HanigerSEAOF$16$19
66Blake TreinenOAKRP$15$19
67Vlad Guerrero Jr.TOR3B$15$19
68Stephan StrasburgWASSP$15$18
69Gary SanchezNYYC$15$18
70Robinson CanoNYM1B/2B$15$18
71Joey GalloTEX1B/OF$15$18
72Zach GreinkeARISP$14$18
73Aroldis ChapmanNYYRP$14$18
74Yasiel PuigCINOF$14$18
75Jesus AguilarMIL1B$14$18
76Nick CastellanosDETOF$14$18
77Travis ShawMIL2B/3B$14$18
78Mike ClevingerCLESP$14$17
79Matt CarpenterSTL1B/2B/3B$14$17
80Ozzie AlbiesATL2B$14$17
81Felipe VazquezPITRP$14$17
82Aaron HicksNYYOF$13$17
83Roberto OsunaHOURP$13$17
84German MarquezCOLSP$13$17
85Gleyber TorresNYY2B/SS$13$17
86Jameson TaillonPITSP$13$16
87Max MuncyLAD1B/2B/3B$13$16
88Andrew McCutchenPHIOF$13$16
89Matt ChapmanOAK3B$13$16
90Justin TurnerLAD3B$13$16
91Eddie RosarioMINOF$13$16
92Miguel AndujarNYY3B$13$16
93Zach WheelerNYMSP$13$16
94Kenley JansenLADRP$12$16
95Jonathan VillarBAL2B/SS$12$15
96David PeraltaARIOF$12$15
97Corey SeagerLADSS$12$15
98Jose BerriosMINSP$12$15
99Scooter GennettCIN2B$12$15
100Jack FlahretySTLSP$11$15
101Wil MyersSD3B/OF$11$15
102David DahlCOLOF$11$15
103Brad HandBOSRP$11$14
104Rougned OdorTEX2B$11$14
105Eloy JimenezCHWOF$11$14
106David PriceBOSSP$11$14
107A.J. PollockLADOF$10$14
108Michael BrantleyHOUOF$10$14
109Stephen PiscottyOAKOF$10$14
110Brian DozierWAS2B$10$14
111Ender InciarteATLOF$10$14
112Jose PerazaCINSS$10$14
113Clayton KershawLADSP$10$14
114Victor RoblesWASOF$10$13
115Mallex SmithSEAOF$10$13
116Nomar MazaraTEXOF$9$13
117Edwin EncarnacionSEA1B/DH$9$13
118Sean DoolittleWSHRP$9$13
119Charlie MortonTBSP$9$13
120Ryan BraunMIL1B/OF$9$13
121Mike MikolasSTLSP$9$13
122Mike MoustakasMIL3B$9$13
123Luis CastilloCINSP$9$13
124Josh DonaldsonATL3B$9$13
125Corey KnebelMILRP$9$13
126Masahiro TanakaNYYSP$9$13
127Josh HaderMILRP$9$13
128Mike FoltynewitczATLSP$8$12
129Raisel IglesiasCINRP$8$12
130Robbie RayARISP$8$12
131Yasmani GrandalMILC$8$12
132Yu DarvishCHCSP$8$12
133Kirby YatesSDRP$8$12
134Yadier MolinaSTLC$8$12
135Nick PivettaPHISP$8$12
136Rafael DeversBOS3B$8$12
137Eduardo RodriguezBOSSP$7$12
138Elvis AndrusTEXSS$7$12
139Shohei OhtaniLAADH$7$11
140Dee GordonSEAOF$7$11
141Amed RosarioNYMSS$7$11
142Chris ArcherPITSP$7$11
143Kyle HendricksCHCSP$7$11
144Ken GilesTORRP$7$11
145Jurickson ProfarOAK1B/2B/SS/3B$7$11
146Joe MusgrovePITSP$7$11
147Madison BumgarnerSFSP$7$11
148Jackie Bradley Jr.BOSOF$7$11
149Max KeplerMINOF$7$11
150Jose LeclercTEXRP$7$11
151Wade DavisCOLRP$7$11
152Shane BieberCLESP$6$11
153Ramon LaureanoOAKOF$6$11
154Yuli GurrielHOU1B/2B/3B$6$11
155Cole HamelsCHCSP$6$11
156Corey DickersonPITOF$6$11
157Ross StriplingLADSP$6$11
158Jorge PolancoMINSS$6$10
159Kenta MaedaLADSP$6$10
160Hunter RenfroeSDOF$6$10
161Rich HillLADSP$6$10
162Paul DeJongSTLSS$6$10
163Brandon NimmoNYMOF$6$10
164Harrison BaderSTLOF$6$10
165Domingo SantanaSEAOF$6$10
166Garrett HampsonCOL2B/SS$6$10
167Jesse WinkerCINOF$6$10
168Ian DesmondCOL1B/OF$6$10
169Marcus SemienOAKSS$6$10
170Yusei KikuchiSEASP$5$10
171Cody AllenLAARP$5$10
172Nathan EovaldiBOSSP$5$10
173Tyler SkaggsLAASP$5$10
174Ketel MarteARI2B/SS$5$10
175Kyle FreelandCOLSP$5$10
176Tim AndersonCWSSS$5$10
177Josh BellPIT1B$5$10
178Eric HosmerSD1B$5$10
179Alex WoodCINSP$5$10
180Jose MartinezSTL1B/OF$5$10
181Buster PoseySFC/1B$5$10
182Justin SmoakTOR1B$5$9
183Cesar HernandezPHI2B$4$9
184Andrelton SimmonsLAASS$4$9
185Adam FrazierPIT2B/OF$4$9
186J.A. HappNYYSP$4$9
187Willson ContrerasCHCC$4$9
188Jose QuintanaCHCSP$4$9
189Trey ManciniBAL1B/OF$4$9
190Jimmy NelsonMILSP$4$9
191Chris TaylorLADSS/OF$4$9
192Eduardo EscobarARISS/3B$4$9
193Yoan MoncadaCWS2B$4$9
194Wilson RamosNYMC$4$9
195Nick SenzelCIN3B$4$9
196DJ LeMahieuNYY2B$4$9
197Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP$4$9
198Shin-Soo ChooTEXOF$4$9
199Lourdes Gurriel Jr.TOR2B/SS$4$9
200Anibal SanchezWASSP$4$9
201Jesus LuzardoOAKSP$4$9
202Evan LongoriaSF3B$4$9
203Danny JansenTORC$4$9
204Kevin GausmanATLSP$4$9
205Joey LucchesiSDSP$4$9
206Randal GrichukTOROF$3$8
207Dallas KeuchelFASP$3$8
208Cedric MullinsBALOF$3$8
209David RobertsonPHIRP$3$8
210Austin MeadowsTBOF$3$8
211Andrew HeaneyLAASP$3$8
212Joshua JamesHOUSP$3$8
213Franmil ReyesSDOF$3$8
214Forrest WhitleyHOUSP$3$8
215Jake BauersCLE1B/OF$3$8
216Adam EatonWSHOF$3$8
217Peter AlonsoNYM1B$3$8
218Tyler GlasnowTBSP,RP$3$8
219Freddy PeraltaMILSP$3$8
220Matt BoydDETSP$3$8
221Carlos SantanaCLE1B/3B$3$8
222Jed LowrieNYM2B/3B$3$8
223Nick MarkakisATLOF$3$8
224Marwin GonzalezMIN1B/2B/SS/OF$3$8
225Kyle GibsonMINSP$3$8
226Jordan HicksSTLSP,RP$3$8
227Andrew MillerSTLRP$3$8
228Asdrubal CabreraTEX2B/SS/3B$3$8
229Steven MatzNYMSP$3$8
230Willy AdamesTBSS$3$8
231Kyle SchwarberCHCOF$2$7
232Starlin CastroMIA2B$2$7
233Carlos MartinezSTLSP$2$7
234Manuel MargotSDOF$2$7
235Ryan O'HearnKC1B$2$7
236Jon LesterCHCSP$2$7
237Jeimer CandelarioDET3B$2$7
238Zach EflinPHISP,RP$2$7
239Billy HamiltonKCOF$2$7
240Collin McHughHOUSP/RP$2$7
241Jake LambARI3B$2$7
242Michael FulmerDETSP$2$7
243Jonathan SchoopMIN2B/SS$2$7
244Brian AndersonMIA1B/OF$2$6
245Miguel CabreraDET1B$2$6
246Jake ArrietaPHISP$2$6
247Adam JonesARIOF$2$6
248Luke VoitNYY1B$2$6
249Alex ReyesSTLSP$2$6
250Ian KinslerSD2B$2$6
251Joey WendleTB2B/3B/OF$1$6
252C.J. CronMIN1B$1$6
253Julio UriasLADSP$1$6
254Byron BuxtonMINOF$1$6
255Kevin PillarTOROF$1$6
256Rick PorcelloBOSSP$1$6
257Brandon BeltSF1B$1$6
258Jason KipnisCLE2B/OF$1$6
259Kendrys MoralesTOR1B/DH$1$6
260Gregory PolancoPITOF$1$6
261Tyler WhiteHOU1B/DH$1$6
262Jose AlvaradoTBRP$1$6
263Welington CastilloCWSC$1$6
264Bradley BoxbergerKCRP$1$6
265Dylan BundyBALSP$0$5
266Pedro StropCHCRP$1$5
267Kyle SeagerSEA3B$0$5
268Shane GreeneDETRP$0$5
269Yonder AlonsoCWS1B$0$5
270Steven DuggarSFOF$0$5
271Jay BruceSEA1B/OF$0$5
272Luis UriasSD2B$0$5
273Matt StrahmSDRP/SP$0$5
274Kole CalhounLAAOF$0$5
275Derek HollandSFGSP$0$5
276Tucker BarnhartCINC$0$5
277Brandon CrawfordSFSS$0$5
278Ryan ZimmermanWAS1B$0$5
279Hernan PerezMIL2B/SS/3B/OF$0$5
280Maikel FrancoPHI3B$0$5
281Sean NewcombATLSP$0$5
282Niko GoodrumDET1B/2B/SS/3B/OF$0$5
283Ian HappCHC3B/OF$0$5
284Orlando ArciaMILSS$0$5
285Francisco CervelliPITC$0$5
286Nick AhmedARISS$0$5
287Robinson ChirinosHOUC$0$5
288Colin MoranPIT1B,3B$0$5
289Miguel SanoMIN1B/3B$0$4
290Francisco MejiaSDC$0$4
291Hunter DozierKC1B/3B$0$4
292Will SmithSFRP$0$4
293Odubel HerreraPHIOF$0$4
294Didi GregoriusNYYSS$0$4
295Jon GrayCOLSP$0$4
296Nate LoweTB1B$0$4
297Scott KingeryPHISS/3B$0$4
298Willians AstudilloMINC$0$4
299Keston HiuraMIL2B$0$4
300Fernando Tatis Jr.SDSS$0$4
301Renato NunezBAL3B$0$4
302Enrique HernandezLAD2B/SS/OF$0$3
303Teoscar HernandezTOROF$0$3
304Hunter StricklandSEARP$0$3
305Brandon WoodruffMILSP/RP$0$3
305Chris PaddackSDSP$0$3

There you have it! I know, it’s 302 players, I can’t count. Thanks for checking out the rankings. I will have the projections out in the next couple of days.


Follow me @FreezeStats. Check out my work at FantasyPros and Pitcher List.

Image Credits: MATTHEW J. LEE/GLOBE STAFF