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MLB Directional Home Run Park Factors Using Statcast (Updated)

Last April, I developed home run park factors based using a combination of home run per barrel rate (HR/BRL%) and non-barreled home runs. The data I used was from Baseball Savant. I gathered the data from each season 2015 through 2018 at each ballpark. Essentially how it worked was any park that allowed higher than league-average HR/BRL rates and allowed more non-barreled home runs were more favorable and vice-versa for parks that scored below-average. This was relatively simplistic but it allowed me to determine that Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati was the most friendly park in MLB for home runs and that Fenway Park in Boston is indeed a poor park for home runs. Naturally, the next step was to breakdown each park directionally (left field, centerfield, right field).


I pulled data from the last three seasons to determine directional home run park factors. I choose a three-year sample for two reasons. First, some of the sample sizes seemed a little small using just a single season of data. Second, combining two juiced ball seasons with one “dead ball” season may be a good way to aggregate how the 2020 ball might respond if there is a slight adjustment to the ball. Of course, it’s anyone’s guess as to how or if the properties of the ball will change, but at minimum I’m accounting for the range of possibilities here. Before I get down into the final park factors, below are the directional HR/BRL% for both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters.

Left Field Centerfield Right Field
Right-Handed Hitters 75.82% 42.3% 49.65%
Left-Handed Hitters 46.80% 43.2% 73.55%

Not surprisingly, pulling the ball yields a much high home run percentage compared to balls hit to center or balls hit to the opposite field. Based on this information, I separated right-handed and left-handed hitters when determining the directional park factors due to the large discrepancies in HR/BRL%. For example, I ran home run park factors to left field for pulled fly balls by right-handed hitters and opposite-field fly balls hit by left-handed hitters. Then, I created a formula to combine the two for a final left-field park factor. I did the same thing for right field park factors. Hopefully, this makes sense. Just to be clear, these park factors are for home runs only. OK, enough of the boring explanations, let’s get to the Home Run Park Factors.


Note: 1.0 is neutral, less than 1.0 is below-average, over 1.0 is above-average

Home Run Park Factors Using Statcast (FreezeStats)

Venue/ParkTeamLF PFCF PFRF PF
GABPCIN1.1071.1361.176
Oriole ParkBAL1.1131.1441.012
Miller ParkMIL0.9841.1451.108
Coors FieldCOL1.0081.1441.055
Guaranteed Rate FldCWS1.0511.0321.114
Dodger StadiumLAD1.0041.2150.976
Citi FieldNYM1.0641.0271.057
Minute Maid ParkHOU1.1020.8861.155
Citizens Bank ParkPHI1.0790.9651.084
Angel StadiumLAA0.9111.1971.010
Petco ParkSDP1.0771.0550.981
Globe Life ParkTEX0.9731.0481.087
Yankee StadiumNYY0.9480.9311.212
Nationals ParkWSH1.0201.1020.936
Progressive FieldCLE0.9561.0311.054
T-Mobile ParkSEA0.9881.0261.006
Rogers CentreTOR1.0121.0060.995
Oakland ColiseumOAK1.0251.0080.943
SunTrust ParkATL0.9650.9991.003
Chase FieldARI1.0730.8611.006
Tropicana FieldTBR1.0180.9270.985
Wrigley FieldCHC0.9921.0270.909
PNC ParkPIT0.8801.0220.962
Target FieldMIN0.9660.9250.954
Busch StadiumSTL0.9141.0250.887
Marlins ParkMIA0.9290.9170.961
Kauffman StadiumKCR0.9550.8560.874
Comerica ParkDET1.0070.6920.958
Fenway ParkBOS0.9120.8620.844
Oracle ParkSFG0.9400.8540.717

Some things that jumped out at me upon seeing the results is that both Los Angeles ballparks are extremely favorable to centerfield. Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium rank one and two, respectively for home runs to centerfield based on my HR Park Factors. Without diving in too deep, I noticed that Angel Stadium is perfect for Shohei Ohtani (the batter). Ohtani hits nearly 37% of his fly balls to centerfield and he absolutely crushes balls up the middle. It partially explains how he has maintained an insanely high 40.4% HR/FB on fly balls to center compared to league-average 10.5%. Another player who benefited from playing half his games in Angel Stadium over the last couple of seasons is Justin Upton (2019 injury notwithstanding). He’s hit a whopping 45.4% of his fly balls to centerfield since the start of 2018. There’s a reason that his HR/FB rate jumped once he was traded from Detroit to LA (23.4% w/ LAA compared to his career 16.6% HR/FB%).

On the flip side, centerfield at Comerica Park in Detroit is where fly balls go to die. That tweet was from back in April, so I had a feeling Detroit was awful to center but it’s worse than I thought compared to other parks. Consider this, since the start of 2017, no park has seen more barreled balls to centerfield than Comerica Park (404 barrels), but only 12.13% of those barreled balls turned into home runs (49 home runs). That is the fewest number of barreled home runs to centerfield since 2017 in all of baseball. That’s crazy! Just for fun, if Comerica played neutral to center, there would have been an ADDITIONAL 127 home runs hit over the last three seasons. If it played as favorable as Dodger Stadium has over that time frame, we would have seen a whopping 222 additional home runs to centerfield alone! It’s amazing Miguel Cabrera surpassed the 40-homer plateau multiple times while playing in Detroit despite hitting 35-40% of his fly balls to center. Nick Castellanos gets a huge boost wherever he lands in 2020 because he hit 41.5% of his fly balls to center in 2019.  


A few other interesting observations that jumped out at me is that Oakland Collusiem and Petco Park in San Diego actually play somewhat favorable for home runs. Both play above-average to centerfield and left field. So, let’s give Manny Machado another chance to bounce back in 2020 even though Petco is still a downgrade compared to Oriole Park. I’ll touch on Yankee Stadium’s right field but the park is below-average to center and left field. I’m beginning to understand why Aaron Judge hits so many balls to the opposite field. Citi Field, the other park in New York, ranks as the seventh most favorable park for home runs by my park factors. If you recall, they moved the fences in before the 2015 season, so that modification has done wonders for their hitters. It also makes what Jacob deGrom’s done over the last two seasons extremely impressive.

Oriole Park, Great American Ballpark (GABP), and Minute Maid Park are the top three parks for home runs to left field. I’m not surprised, because GABP is favorable to all fields and Minute Maid has the short porch in left thanks to the Crawford Boxes (84.14% HR/BRL for pulled FB to left). Although Minute Maid is even better for left-handed pull power but below-average to center. Oriole Park has proven to be more favorable for right-handed pull power and straight-away center but plays neutral to right field. We should shift our analysis for left-handed pull hitters and right-handed hitters who favor the opposite field in Baltimore as they may not see a boost in power numbers. PNC Park in Pittsburgh is the worst for home runs to left field but is OK to center and right. More on this in a future article.

Oracle Park is a nightmare for power hitters who favor right field. That’s a well-known fact of course. However, the fences are indeed coming in as the bullpen is now moving behind the right field wall! It’s hard to say how much this will improve the home run park factors in Oracle because the entire park plays unfavorable. Either way, I’m intrigued by Brandon belt (if he stays in SF), Mike Yastrzemski , and Alex Dickerson. In fact, one of my bold predictions involves Alex Dickerson surpassing 20 home runs in 2020. The number-one venue to right field is Yankee Stadium. Along with the juiced ball, it helped boost Didi Gregorius’ power numbers and resurrect Brett Gardner’s power. Great American Smallpark comes in at number two and how about Minute Maid Park ranking third to right field. It’s actually MORE favorable than left field with the Crawford Boxes! 

I had to dig a little deeper to find out why Minute Maid was so favorable to right field. It ranked second in HR/BRL% to right field and allowed the fourth-most non-barreled home runs. Minute Maid is only 326 feet down the right field line which is 11 feet deeper than the short porch in left field, however, the height of the wall is only seven feet high in right field as opposed to the 19 and 25-foot walls in left and left-center. In the power alley (right-center), the fence is 373 feet from home plate and 10-feet in height. Again, this is 11 feet further than left-center but with a much shorter wall. In other words, batted balls with a lower trajectory have a higher probability to be a home run to right field than to left field in Houston. Meanwhile, non-barreled fly balls with high launch angles to left field have left Minute Maid 113 times in three seasons, most in MLB.


My next article will look at hitters and some pitchers who are changing parks and how we should evaluate each player based on the park change. Obviously, we need to see more signings before that happens. To reiterate, these park factors do not consider singles, doubles, or triples, so they are not complete park factors. They are strictly measuring how favorable/unfavorable each park is for home runs to each part of the field using Statcast metrics (barrels and on-barrels). ESPN and FanGraphs along with several other sites have overall park factors, but we care about the long ball!

This metric can be extremely helpful for the evaluation of certain players who have extreme pull or oppo tendencies on their batted balls. Heavy pull hitters or hitters with a higher percentage of opposite-field fly balls can be analyzed and projected more accurately. I could also see where this metric could provide value for DFS purposes. For example, imagine righty-masher Joc Pederson in Yankee Stadium against a right-handed pitcher. That’s easy money right there. I’m open to any questions or ideas you may have as well. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @FreezeStats.


 Photo courtesy of southerncal88

Weekly Rundown – Here’s the Story with Machado

HOT HITTERS
Paul Goldschmidt has finally broken out of his two month slump and is hitting .448 with six homers in the past eight days. If you visit the site, you know that back in mid-May I wrote a post about Goldschmidt’s struggles. There was a point in mid-May where Goldy had a .171 wOBA, a 20% hard contact, and a 42% K rate. The wOBA was the lowest of his career and his K rate was its highest since 2012. I haven’t dug deep yet into the numbers but this appears to have been a mental block with Goldy. Good for the owners that stuck it out, hopefully he didn’t dig you in too big of a hole.

Trevor Story is hitting a blistering .500 with three dingers, nine RBI and a steal this past week. He’s actually started to hit on the road for the first time this year and that could be dangerous. Story is making strides in the contact department now with a 6% jump from 2017, a career low SwStr rate and that has helped cut his K rate down below 27%. He’s basically looking a lot like his rookie season with a lower strikeout rate. He’s been a little unlucky in terms of power and he just stole his 9th base of the season, a new career high. His sprint speed is in the top 98 percentile. Add Coors to the mix and he could be a .270-35-18 type player this year.

Max Muncy continues his onslaught on the league mashing .350 with four bombs in the last seven days. Muncy is an OBP league’s dream. I recently compared his 45 games stretch (now 47 games) to Hoskins’ 50 game run at the end of 2017 and they are nearly identical. Muncy’s patience and great plate discipline makes him a viable option in all leagues. Sure, regression is coming but his clear swing and approach change makes him a solid .250-ish hitter with good power. Injuries and poor performance has given Muncy an everyday role and he can play almost anywhere.

Future 2018 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is hitting .409 with four homers and a steal this past week. Freddie keeps getting better, he’s cut his K rate for the third straight year and he continues to steal bases 6 for 8 on the season. He’s everything you hoped Paul Goldschmidt would be this year. Combine that with a career high hard contact and pull% and Freeman’s HR rate may actually improve. I can envision Freeman going .330-35-120-14 this year.

The Seattle Bombers Ryon Healy, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Haniger have combined for 12 HR and 18 RBI this past week. What, only 18 RBI? Haha, that’s right, they kept hitting back-to-back bombs so no one was on base. Anyways, I read a comment on Twitter @bdentrek that the Seattle hitters busted into Cano’s medicine cabinet. LOL, that’s joke but damn, the ball seems to be flying out of Safeco. Cruz’s early season struggles are behind him, I’m convinced he can hit 40 homers until he’s 50 at this point. I love Haniger and the Diamondbacks have to be kicking themselves right now. Healy is on a hot streak, but I don’t love him in shallow formats. If I’m ranking them ROS, I’m going Cruz at 1A, Haniger at 1B, and Healy in a distant third.

Evan Gattis is hitting .320 with four homers and an amazing 15 RBI in the last seven days! Jesus man, slow down. A week like that from a Catcher will vault you into the top 5. Searching….searching…and he’s the number 1 ranked catcher. OMG, that’s hilarious. Rounding out the top 3 is Grandal and Cerevelli. Realmuto is 4th and I think by season’s end, he’s top 3. This is case and point why you never draft a catcher inside the top 100 overall.

Hot Pitchers
Trevor Bauer seems to be a regular on this list, he’s got 24 Ks in his last two starts with a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. If you didn’t believe he was an ace before this week, you should now. If I told you in Mid-May that Bauer would end 2018 with better numbers than Gerrit Cole, you would have punched me in the face and laughed. Sure, the win totals are down for Bauer, but come on, luck can change on dime, all other numbers are almost identical between the two. It’s not a long-shot anymore. Bauer Power!

Anibal Sanchez has somehow managed a 1.46 ERA with a 0.73 WHIP with 2 wins and 11 strikeouts in his last two starts. On the season he’s below 2.00 for an ERA! I think you know just like everyone else, he’s regressing. A near .200 BABIP with a below average K rate means you need get out now before your left rostering him when that blow up happens. I did see that he’s inducing 28% soft contact, so maybe his cutter has improved. Something to watch but he’s still a streamer.

Dylan Covey of the White Sox has put together several solid starts including 2 W with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in his last two. Covey has dropped almost 5.50 off his ERA from last year. Yup, you read that right. It’s odd because his WHIP is 1.30 which doesn’t jive with a 2.29 ERA. Listen I like 61% GB rate and increased velocity but I’m setting the over/under ROS at 4.15. I mean Covey hasn’t even given up a HR yet after allowing, get this 20 HR IN ONLY 70 IP last year. I’m take big the over.

Mike Clevinger has 16 strikeouts with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in his last two starts. Cool but what’s up with his sub-8.0 K/9 though? Yes, he’s around the zone a little more and sacrificing some swings and misses for called strikes and weak contact. He’s another Indians pitcher without a good fastball but has an ELITE slider. He’s finally throwing it over 20% of the time. His change up is pretty good too, if he ups his slider usage, I think his K rate settles in around 9.0/9. Me like

Jhoulys Chacin has managed to grab a couple of wins along with solid ratios and 14 strikeouts in his last two starts. Chacin is so boring, but you know what, he’s been useful with his ratios and has provided 6 wins. That’s about to change, I’d be moving on quick at this point. Everything is pointing in the direction. When your K rate is less than twice your BB rate, we have problems. When the BABIP and HR rate come up, he’s donzo.

The Dodgers Ace Ross Stripling, yeah I said it! Who else can claim that title thus far in 2018? I’m getting tired of writing about him on these rundowns, HAHA JK, it’s great! A near 30% K rate with a 4.2% BB rate, what!?! If I were to tell you a Dodgers pitcher has those ratios at the start of the season, Stripling would probably have been the 7th or 8th choice. Sure, there’s some luck with L-O-B% and I’m still down with O-P-P. However, that BABIP looks just fine, I don’t see regression there. Every pitch he throws has registered a positive pitch value, which is crazy. I said it before, the K rate may drop 3-4% but he’s still a top 30 SP if he keeps this up.

Freezing Hitters
Tim Anderson is 2 for his last 20 with no homers and a steal but somehow has 3 runs. That’s because he’s actually walking! An 8.3% BB rate up from an abysmal 2.3% in 2017, allows him for more stolen bases opportunities to weather these cold streaks. He’s still likely a .240-.250 hitter but with his change in approach (increased patience and increased fly ball rate), he should have no problems reaching 20 HR and 25 steals.

Giancarlo Stanton is 3 for his last 21 with no homers. If I’m being honest, I think Stanton is kind of a jackass but damn he can hit the ball hard. Yes, he’s in a funk right now but his 24% K rate from 2017 is up to nearly 32% this year! He’s also got a career worst 16% SwStr rate and a career low contact rate to back up the elevated strikeouts. Stanton has also decreased fly ball% and is pulling the ball less. So, less contact, lower fly ball rate and less pulled balls equals no where near 58 HR. I’m sorry, the people claiming “this is exactly where he was last year” are wrong. He never has contact issues like this last year. Expect a .250-35-40 HR season from Stanton.

Matt Kemp, what happened? After going nuts this past month, Kemp got old and fat quick, hitting .188 with one homer this past week. Damn, just last week I had him back with Rihanna and now he’s dating one of the Kardashians (and not the good ones). His K rate keeps heading north and his hard contact has dipped a bit. If this is a younger hitter, I’m not concerned but shizz can go sideways with Kemp in a hurry, so I’m keeping a close eye on this one. Another week like this and HE GONE!

Anthony Rendon has never really got on track this year; he’s 4 for his last 20 and no homers and no steals. He’s driving in runs because he’s in a great Nationals lineup, but what’s going on here? Rendon has really taken the launch angle Revolution (is that what’s it’s called now?) to heart the last two years. There are too many popups but he’s still stinging the ball when he doesn’t pop it up, his barrel% is up 5% and he’s nearly doubled league average for value hits. He still makes a ton of contact but he’s expanding the zone a bit which could be the reason for the elevated popups. It don’t matter, I’m buying Rendon right now. DO IT NOW!

Edwin Encarnacion is only 1 for his last 16 and he’s even seen the bench a couple games. I believe he’s harboring an injury. Either that or he’s finally aging and it’s showing. His fly ball rate has increased along with his K rate, but it’s become a detriment to his batting average. His hard contact and HR/FB rate still looks great but if he continues to sell out for power, his value will drop. The walk rate is also no longer elite and his O-Swing and SwStr rates are at career highs. He still might hit 35+ HR but it may come at a .230 AVG and a .310 OBP. I’d sell, but not at a draft day discount.

Speaking of high strikeout rates, Joey Gallo has a measly two hits this past week although one of them was a bomb last night.  All of that talk of him lowering his strikeout rate is out the window as he’s back above 36% on the season. This makes me sad and I thought Gallo was going to take a step forward this year. He still can and I do believe his 0.088 BABIP of fly balls and 0.171 BABIP on ground balls should rise, but he’s still pulling too many balls into the shift. I guess Gallo is just a .210-.220 hitter with 40+ homer power. Sigh

I was going to write about Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado but they both hit bombs last night and had multi-hit nights, so…. Let’s talk about Manny Machado. Machado is only 3 for his last 18 with no homers, runs, RBI, but 1 steal! I guess you’re the only top tier 3B that sucks Machado! Totally JK obviously. Machado is still killing it this year. The K rate and BB rate are at career bests and his BABIP normalized from last year’s outlier. I don’t love his batted ball profile, he’s hitting too many popups as he continues to increase his fly ball rate, so a 40 homer season is a possibility but not at a .300 average. Although a 91% zone contact rate goes a long way in terms of batting average. Machado will be on the move before the deadline, so a lot will depend on where he goes. Either way, I think he can be around .285 with 40 bombs with his first 100 RBI season. 

Freezing Pitchers
Vincent Velasquez is here mostly due to his 10 ER outing against the Brewers last weekend. He actually fired a solid 6.2 IP with 2 ER this week. Point is, his 12 ER in the past 10+ IP does not look pretty. These past two starts are great examples of VV’s volatility. Come to think of it, VV stands for very volatile. However, there are improvements, his K%-BB% is 20%, a career high. He’s also allowing less hard contact, his 1.2 HR/9 isn’t great, but it’s playable. If his LOB% and BABIP normalize just a little, he’s a 3.50 ERA guy with a great K rate.

Zack Greinke has given up 8 ER in his last two starts. He’s uncharacteristically given up 6 walks and 3 HR in that span. Greinke is averaging under 90 mph on his fastball. In the Spring, Greinke messes around and throws mid-80s but I think this lower velocity is real. Stinky Greinke is crafty AF but as the velocity continues to drop, his margins are razor thin. I’d look to move him while his K rate and BB rates are still fantastic. I think you can get 100 cents on the dollar for him (yes, that’s the same thing, I know that) but it needs to be done now. Try to get a Tommy Pham or Christian Yelich for him.

Luke Weaver, everyone’s second favorite young starter coming into the 2018 (first being Luis Castillo The question is, where did the strikeouts go? His Contact, SwStr, and O-Swing match last year’s number but his K/9 is down almost 3.0 to a sub-par 7.8 K/9. I think you can move on from Weaver this year, he’s still only 24 years old and I do like him long term to be a solid #2 on your fantasy team in the future. See if you can get anything for him, but if not, he’s safe to drop.

Jake Arrieta got absolutely blown up last night giving up 8 run but only 4 ER in 3.1 IP. In his last three starts, he’s given up 13 ER while striking out only 9 batters. That’s not good. His K rate sits at a career low 16.2% combined with an 8% walk rate. I don’t see anything in his profile that tells me that his K rate will rise much. He’s probably going to be around a 17-18% K rate guy while limiting homers. I just don’t see him being successful giving up that much contact, especially if he doesn’t have a great walk rate.

Whoa James Paxton, what happened? I don’t want to use the “I” word but how can you not when he’s always hurt and usually super effective when healthy. Big Maple has given up 8 ER in his last two starts but what’s also concerning is the 20 hits he’s given up in his last 17 IP. Well, let’s check his velocity, uhoh, it’s down about 2 mph in his last start. Ok, that could explain the ineffectiveness. If I’m the mariners, I’m putting him on the DL to skip a couple starts and give him some rest. You don’t keep going down this road with Paxton. Keep a close eye on his velocity in his next start if they don’t put him on the DL. Look for 95.5+, if it’s 94, we’ve got problems.