I’m jumping right in this week, I should have a weekly/yearly update for how I’ve done to date next week. Let’s starts with a low owned pitcher on Monday and go from there.
Sam Gaviglio (Tor) 3% Away vs TB Monday 6/11
Sammy G everyone! So this 28 year old is not a mid-2 ERA guy due to an unsustainable 90% LOB%. I do however like his 55% ground ball rate, 22% soft contact rate, and 23% strikeout rate. Those are numbers I can get behind because he should be able limit home runs and limit long innings with his sub-6.0% walk rate. Now, looking at the Rays, they are a middle of the road offensive team (which is surprising considering they are sellers), but they are bottom five in home runs. Another mark in Sam Gaviglio’s favor. He’s available in almost all leagues, so go out and grab him and STREAM
Chris Stratton (SF) 17% Away vs MIA Tuesday 6/12
This one’s a no-brainier right? The Marlins sport an MLB worse .289 wOBA with a 23% K rate and a sub 8% walk rate as a team. This game would be better for Stratton if it was at home but Marlins Park still definitely favors the pitcher. The issue is Stratton hasn’t been great, he’s giving up too much hard contact and not a whole lot of soft contact while carrying a sub-20% K rate. With Stratton this week, I’m torn like Natalie Imbruglia on this one. There’s limited upside here, so this is probably my least favorite of the streaming bunch, but if you’re desperate, go ahead and STREAM.
Tyler Mahle (CIN) 9% Away vs KC Wednesday 6/13
Normally an NL pitcher going to an AL park to face the DH does not favor the pitcher. In this case, getting out of Great American Ballpark and into Kauffman Stadium is a good thing. His K and BB rates are just fine, it’s his home run rate that is ugly. That’s ok because the Royals are third to last when it comes to hitting homers this year and are bottom six in terms of wOBA. The Royals don’t strikeout much but Mahle should be just fine in this one. STREAM with confidence
Matt Koch (ARI) 8% Home VS NYM Thursday 6/14
Who the hell is Matt Koch? I don’t really know but he’s facing the Mets at home. Well actually, Koch is 27 years old with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 60 innings this year. Not bad for a streamer right? Especially for one that’s facing the Mets. Under the hood though, Koch has a 13.4% K rate, a .257 BABIP, and a 1.8 HR/9. His hard contact against justifies the elevated homer rate. He’s due for BABIP regression and I’m betting it comes against a weak Mets lineup, why? Because Koch is due, that’s why. STAY AWAY
Lance Lynn (MIN) 24% Road vs DET Thursday 6/14
Lynn had an awful start to 2018 and his numbers on the season are still terrible with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. However, his last 5 starts, Lynn has a 2.28 ERA and a 22% K rate. He gets to face Detroit which is great because they don’t walk much and that’s been Lynn’s Achilles heel. I expect good strikeout numbers and at minimum a quality start with a good shot at a win. STREAM
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