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Pitchers to Stream – Minor Option Major Result

It’s playoff time, no more messing around! I’m covering a bunch of pitchers in this week’s article who are owned in under 25% of leagues per FantasyPros Yahoo/ESPN ownerships. Most of them I like, but there’s a couple I’m a little wary of. I’ll stop wasting your time with a pointless intro and get right into the pitchers.

Joey Lucchesi (SD) LHP, 23% @SEA, Tuesday 9/11
Of course, I would prefer this game to be played in San Diego but I’d also prefer to be Justin Verlander but it’s just not in the cards. The last time these two faced off Lucchesi rolled with 9 Ks and 1 ER in 6.2 IP.  That’s fantastic but it also was at home. I’ve mentioned this before but Lucchesi only has two pitches and he struggles to get through the order three times. Here are his numbers the third time through the order: 6.00 ERA with a .338 average against in 15 innings. The Mariners just saw him last week and I think will have more success against him this time around. I can see a short 5 inning outing with a limited shot at a win or a QS. I’m Staying Away here but he does have some strikeout upside. I’d be more interested if this start was later in the week.

Framber Valdez (HOU) LHP, 13% @DET, Tuesday 9/11
The Astros against the Tigers is a huge mismatch, the probability of a win is very high for Valdez. So that’s great! I hate to break this to you, but Valdez is not a 1.37 ERA pitcher. I know, shocking! However, how much damage can really be done with a 70% ground ball rate and a 30% soft contact rate? Not much, fam. He gets the Tigers who are 24th in the league in wOBA at home this year. I don’t see much strikeout upside here, but a win, QS, and decent ratios are in order. STREAM

Steven Matz (NYM) LHP, 23% Home vs MIA, Wednesday 9/12
Matz spun another solid outing on Friday against the Phillies where he struck out 8 batters in 5 IP. That makes a swinging strike rate over 10% in four of his last five games and his 4th straight game with at least a strikeout per inning. We can thank the increased slider usage which I mentioned in the last streamer article for that. Combine that with the Marlins poor performance against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have a .289 wOBA against lefties which ranks 27th in MLB. I’m a big fan of the changes Matz has made, his main weakness is the home run ball but I’m not concerned about that. Why? Because theMarlins have hit a total of 25 homers off lefties this year which ranks last in MLB. Easy STREAM here. My #2 stream of the week.

Jorge Lopez (KC) RHP, 2% Home vs MIN, Thursday 9/13
Who is this guy? Lopez is a former Brewers farmhand who was traded to the Royals in the Moustakas trade. In his last two starts, Lopez has given up only 2 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. He throws four pitches and all have registered positive pitch values per FanGraphs. I don’t think he has elite or high-end strikeout stuff, but he gets the ice cold Twins who have a .296 wOBA the last 14 days. Oh, and did I mention that one of those last two outings was against the Twins? No, well it was. Lopez also goes up against Gonsalves who has been atrocious this year, so he should get run support. Maybe the Twins pick up on something this time around or maybe they will stay cold. I’m rolling the dice. STREAM

Tyler Anderson (COL) LHP, 21% @SF, Friday 9/14
Anderson has really struggled in the second half after showing some signs of a breakout in the first half. Something has gone wrong in the second half but his poor HR/9 and BABIP likely won’t stick. He’s still getting a ton of swings and misses with a swinging strike rate of 13.4% with a 73.2% contact rate since July 30th. Since this start is in AT&T Park, I think the home run rate and BABIP will be in his favor for this game. If I haven’t convinced you, maybe this will. In the last 14 days, the Giants have a .250 wOBA with an unbelievable 31.5% strikeout rate. That’s last place in MLB for both, and it’s not close. The last 30 days haven’t been much better either. I’m thinking Anderson turns his best start of the second half in this one. STREAM

Jaime Barria (LAA) RHP 17% Home vs SEA, Saturday 9/15
Barria is a guy with a great slider and not much else. He’s been successful this year, there’s no doubt but he’s limited home runs and benefited with some BABIP and strand rate luck. What’s interesting is that Barria has already faced the Mariners three times. In all three starts, he’s given up 2 earned runs each time but has only struck out 5 batters in 16.1 IP. He also was very fortunate with his strand rates in those games. Some people might say he’s set for another two earned run outing to follow the trend. I say he’s due for a blow-up. Clearly, Barria isn’t fooling the Mariners hitters to get swings and misses. I just don’t see enough upside in this start. I’m STAY AWAY

Mike Minor (TEX) LHP, 23% @SD, Sunday 9/16
Minor should have two starts this week with the second coming Sunday against the Padres in San Diego. The Padres have a 24.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers and are ranked 22nd offensively against southpaws. If you’re wondering, Minor has been great in the second half with five wins and a 2.88 ERA. He’s increased his usage of his changeup to 25% up from 15%. That’s great because it’s his best pitch. Not only is he getting more swings and misses, but he’s gotten over 26% soft contact since the break. I’m hoping Minor gets this second start because it’s my lock of the week. STREAM

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Starting Pitchers to Stream: Giolito-bit of Matz-uration

Last week went really well and if you were able to grab the streamers I laid out last week, you may have just won your week. I received some comments about posting my previous week’s results, and I was doing that but I’ve just fallen behind. I’ll try to get them posted from here on out. I’ll also post all my streamer’s results for the entire season to see where we stand at the end of this month. Anyways, here was last week’s picks.

Name Date Opponent IP H BB ER K W
Joey Lucchesi 8/29 SEA 6.67 6 2 1 9 1
Matt Boyd 8/28 @KC 6 7 3 5 4 0
John Gant 8/30 PIT 5.67 3 3 0 6 1
Austin Gomber 8/31 CIN 7 10 0 2 3 1
Andrew Suarez 8/31 NYM 7 2 0 0 5 1
Steven Matz 9/1 @SF 7 3 1 1 11 0
TOTALS 39.34 31 9 9 38 4

If it weren’t for Boyd, it may have been the perfect week. Even still, we posted a 2.06 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP with 4 wins (out of 6 starts) and nearly a strikeout per inning. Gonna be tough to top that but there are a shit-ton of streaming options this seek under 25% owned and I don’t even discuss Lucchesi and Gomber who just missed the cut.

Adam Plutko (CLE) 3% owned, home vs KC, Monday, 9/3
Plutko isn’t a great pitcher but he does get to face the Royals at home. The Royals are terrible, right? Well, actually they are 10th in terms of wOBA in the last 30 days at .315 and they 5th in the league in combined HR + SB in that span. Plutko is an extreme flyball pitcher at 56% and has limited strikeout upside. A win is certainly possible with the elite offense of the Indians but Plutko has limited upside with strikeouts and ratios. I’m passing, STAY AWAY

Lucas Giolito (CHW) 22% owned, home vs DET, Tuesday, 9/4
Don’t laugh you guys!. Giolito has got it going on recently. His fastball velocity is up and his location is better. His changeup is probably his best pitch, so he’s subscribing to the fastballs up, offspeed down approach and finally having success. He gets the Tigers at home who are 28th in MLB in wOBA as .291 in the last 30 days. In that time, the Tigers are hitting .237 as a team with a 22.1% K rate and a below-average 7% walk rate. I’m a Giolito-bit excited about this one. Go ahead and STREAM

Dan Straily (MIA) 5% Home vs PHI, Wednesday 9/5
I thought long and hard about Glasnow but he’s got the Blue Jays in Toronto who rank in the top 5 offensively this past month. If you need strikeout upside and can sacrifice ratios, you can try Glasnow. Straily, on the other hand, doesn’t have the same upside as Glasnow but he gets the Phillies who are really struggling offensively with a 23% K rate and a .302 wOBA in August. Straily is known to give up the gopher ball but he hasn’t given one up in his last two starts and only 2 HR given up in his last five starts total. Straily, not surprising is also better at home and has been able to get more strikeouts in Miami. I expect Straily to continue on this mini-roll at least for one more start. STREAM

Steven Matz (NYM), 14% owned at Home vs PHI, Friday 9/7
Matz’ ownership should skyrocket after last night’s gem against the Giants where, as you can see above, dominated them with 11 Ks and only 1 ER. The Giants are terrible, but the Phillies aren’t that much better ranked 23rd in wOBA in the last 30 days with a 23% K rate that falls in the bottom six in MLB. What has changed with Matz? In his last 3 starts, he’s thrown his slider about 10% more and his change 5% more. Those are his two pitches and he’s getting a ton more swings and misses because of it. I think he keeps it going against the Phils. STREAM

Wei-Yin Chen (MIA) 6% owned Away vs PIT, Friday, 9/7
You guys, how is Chen only 6% owned? This confirms that over 50% of leagues are dead. Can we talk about how good he’s been in the last month? Here it is, 3 wins, 1.44 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 31.1 IP. Yup. Of course, I’d prefer this game at home but PNC isn’t much of a hitter’s upgrade over Marlins Park. Oh, and the Pirates are bad. They are 26th in wOBA in the last month and only the Giants and Rays have hit fewer home runs in that span. The walks are up for Chen on the season but it’s down to a more Chen-like 6.8% walk rate in his last 8 starts. I’m all in STREAM

Matt Harvey (CIN) 17% owned @DET, Saturday 9/8
Matt Harvey has had a pretty eventful year and he gets the Tigers outside of Great American Ballpark. Then again, it’s Matt Harvey. However, since 7/28 Harvey has posted a  22.1% K rate and a 5.2% BB rate which is solid even if his ERA and WHIP don’t show it. An elevated BABIP has skewed the ratios a bit. In that timeframe, he’s also inducing 24% soft contact. I discussed how bad the Tigers have been in my Giolito blurb so I won’t do it again. There’s some risk here because Harvey typically goes only 5 or 6 innings but I’m rolling with Harvey in 14-team and deeper leagues. STREAM

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Streaming Options 7/2 – 7/7: Hell-Boy & Estrada Blast from the Past

Since I got this up a bit later than normal, I won’t waste your time with worthless rambling. Let’s see what streaming options we have over the Independence Day Holiday. I don’t love the streaming options this week with limited strikeout upside, but the ratios should be solid. Make sure you grab your streamers early in case you plan on tying one on during the holiday week.

Nathan Eovaldi (TB) 9% Away vs MIA, Monday July 2nd
This one seems like an easy call. Except that the Marlins are actually middle of the road offensively the last 30 days. That’s ok, because the Marlins have been worse at home with a sub-.295 wOBA. Eovaldi averages nearly 98 mph on his fastball and it’s been very effective at getting weak contact. On the season, he’s nearly given up 25% soft contact which would be top 10% if he qualified. Unfortunately, Eovaldi doesn’t have the secondary offerings to get swings and misses, but he’s also always around the zone and not walking batters. This is a low-risk, low-reward option. But I’m rolling with it, STREAM


Anthony DeSclafani (CIN) 10% Home vs CWS, Tuesday July 3rd
Great American Ballpark is not a great place to pitch in the summer. But get this, in the last 30 days, the White Sox have the highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate in MLB. They are also rocking a .282 wOBA as a team in that time. DeSclafani has not been great but his velocity is good and his slider has registered positive results. I believe he turns a solid outing against the struggling White Sox. STREAM

Marco Estrada (TOR) 19% Home vs NYM, Tuesday July 3rd
Let’s be clear, it’s been a rough year for Estrada, the strikeouts are down, he’s giving up more fly balls and it’s led to a 4.52 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. However, in June he has a 2.35 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP and even the strikeouts have rebounded. Estrada is walking less batters this year compared to 2017, down to 6.4% on the season. Home runs are a concern but the Mets are bad. In the month of June the Mets are hitting .210 as a team! They are only averaging one HR/game last month, so I think Estrada is good for about 7 IP with a couple ER and 5-6 Ks. STREAM

Jeremy Hellickson (WAS) 22% Home vs MIA, Thursday July 5th
Oh look, another low strikeout option. NHe’s not exciting either, but Hellickson has been useful this year and can keep hitters off balance. He only throws 90 mph but his arsenal has five pitches all of which he throw more than 10% of the time. I like Hellickson at home where he sports a 1.65 ERA, yes in limited sample (16.1 IP), but I believe Hell-boy can get through a weak Miami lineup three times on his way to a easy victory. The Nationals bats are too talented to continue this offensive slump. Let’s STREAM

Steven Matz (NYM) 20% Home vs TB, Saturday July 7th
Maybe Matz is our strikeout upside option this week? Matz just handled the Marlins on Sunday with 6 Ks in 5.2 IP on his way to a win. A home start against the Rays look awfully tasty. I understand that the Rays are better with the bats than anticipated but over the past month they have a nearly 26% K rate and a .285 wOBA. Combine that with a .118 ISO as a team and I could see a dominate outing from Matz. I just hope he can get some run support. Either way, I’m in, STREAM.