Alex Bregman’s 2018 Hype Train

Coming into 2016 Bregman was one of the top prospects in baseball, he was drafted #2 overall in the 2015 draft and absolutely cruised through the minors getting a late 2016 debut. In just about 200 games worth of stats, he’s posted 27 HRs and 19 steals.  A great start to his career and he’s even drawn some comparisons to his MVP teammate Jose Altuve.  Both have that zest (yes I used the word zest) for the game of baseball but mainly because they are both pretty GD short.  But due to their height and short arms they’ve been able to develop powerful compact swings.  The short distance to the ball combined with the bat speed make for high contact rates and some pop.  Bregman dropped his K rate from 24% in 2016 to 15.5% in 2017 while increasing his walk rate by 2%.

The most impressive improvements made by Bregman in 2017 is his plate discipline. His Z-Contact went from 81.6% to 90.5% and he dropped his SwStr% from 11.8% to 6.4%! Those are elite numbers.  He did all that while decreasing his O-Swing% by nearly 2%.

While I don’t think Bregman is Altuve, the two comparisons I want to make are Anthony Rendon and Jose Ramirez. Bregman looks poised to go all Jo Ram in 2018 and he’s going to be 24 when the 2018 season starts (same as Jo Ram in 2017).  Also, check out Rendon’s breakout in 2014, he was also 24 and his numbers look eerily similar to Bregman’s.  It helps that he’s added some speed to his game and was very successful only being thrown out five times in 22 attempts.  Remember he had a slow start and was hitting 7th and 8th for a good portion of the first half.  I expect Bregman to hit 2nd most of the year between Springer and Altuve, YES PLS!!

I know the hype train is high on his and recency bias may be playing a roll but I’m betting on talent. The hype might die down come spring but right now I’d call Bregman Rendon Lite but I think that might be selling him short (pun intended).  He might be some kind of cross between Jo Ram and Rendon in 2018.   Final Projection: .292/.369, 26 HRs, 105 runs, 85 RBI, 15 steals (Way Too Early Mock drafts have him at ADP 69) but I’d take him around 30th overall (obviously, check out my top 30 for 2018.  I do expect the ADP to rise in the coming months, but don’t be scared, draft with confidence.

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